Olympic Road Race Men

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Why are they fighting? They both have an almost zero percent chance of winning, unless EBH can suddenly handle a tough 250k race.

Teams like Belgium(Phil, Tommeke and GVA) or Germany(Greipel and Degenkolb), have a better reason to argue about who's going in as their leader.

EBH has an infinitely better chance than GVA or Degenkolb, on account of him having an very small chance.

Regardless, silver and bronze are worth having so no one will be sitting around worrying about Cav still being there when judging what to chase down.

 

[la.margna]

This may seem like a dumb question but whatever happened to Petacchi? He has ridden this year so is he injured or has he lost a step and is just riding the smaller races?

Ashma-Jet was @ LeTour but crashed. But I guess CONI implied a rule that any former doper shall never wear the Italian colours for the rest of his career? But don't know whether that was finally imposed... Hard to understand that Moser was not selected... Whatever...

And some guy wrote somewhere in this thread that Wiggo won a sprint @ the Romandie. Well, size-wise it was a bunch sprint, but with not one single sprinter, not one! not even a puncheur/finisseur. Like the former rider Sven Montgomery said at the flamme rouge during the live transmission; we are going to see a sprint of non-sprinters.


1. Etappe - Morges - Chaux-de-Fonds (184 km)

1. Bradley Wiggins GBR Sky 4:50:23
2. Lieuwe Westra NED Vacansoleil-DCM + 00:00
3. Paolo Tiralongo ITA Astana + 00:00
4. Tejay Van GardereUSA Team BMC + 00:00
5. Maciej Paterski POL Liquigas-Cannondale + 00:00
6. Wasil Kirienka BLR Movistar + 00:00
7. Serge Pauwels BEL Omega-Quick Step + 00:00
8. Daniele Pietropolli ITA Lampre-ISD + 00:00
9. Ryder Hesjedal CAN Garmin-Barracuda + 00:00
10. Pieter Weening NED Greenedge + 00:00
11. Rob Ruijgh NED Vacansoleil-DCM + 00:00
12. Egoi Martinez ESP Euskaltel + 00:00
13. Cadel Evans AUS Team BMC + 00:00
14. Gorka Verdugo ESP Euskaltel + 00:00
15. Steve Morabito SUI Team BMC + 00:00
16. Thomas RohreggerAUT RadioShack-Nissan + 00:00
17. Bauke Mollema NED Rabobank + 00:00
18. Mikel Landa MeanaESP Euskaltel + 00:00
19. Janez Brajkovic SLO Astana + 00:00
20. Ruben Plaza ESP Movistar + 00:00

 

[WindLessBreeze]

The Under*Dogs

We are the Long^Shot/They could have written us off/As of yet.....NOT
Latinos will ride as a BLOCK; We'll break away from the Gun.................
If pressed too hard, we'll be rooting for our Spaniards Friends
(Maybe I'd have put Betancur instead of Duarte.........Montani3Semper)

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

EBH has an infinitely better chance than GVA or Degenkolb,

Lol, no.

Degenkolb and GVA actually have much better results in classics than EBH.

EDIT: well Degenkolb is still young; but 5th at Milan San Remo is this year is much better than anything EBH has shown in classics, and very relevant for these Olympics.

 

[jordan5000]

But this isn't really a classic, they do a few times up a hill which in all likelihood will serve as a launching pad for futile attacks that will be brought back by the sprinters' teams. This is clearly a day for the sprinters and EBH is Norway's best sprinter (sorry Thor)

Predictions: Gold: Cav Silver: Greipel Bronze: Sagan

 

[Wilba60]

Great to see the 3 GreenEdge, 1 BMC, 1 Sky Aussie team looking strong. All of the Aussies did the Tour and didn't crash so their chances may be dependant on how well they have all pulled up from France.

It would seem to me that they have 3 options;

1. Use Rogers and O'Grady to keep Goss with the main group and go for his sprint finish. Not sure who would lead out, especially if O'Grady has to do some grunt work pulling the peleton...maybe Evans, that would be cool to watch.

2. Use Rogers, Evans, Gerro to push over Box Hill and have a smaller front group. Preferably with Goss in and Cav out but if Goss misses out they may have to face Sagan who is more likely to stick. Not sure how anyone could beat Sagan in that scenario.

3. Push even harder than option 2 for a more select group which would leave them with Gerrans or Evans as the main chances. They would have to ride hard enough to drop Sagan and that seems reasonably unlikely.

Seems to me that they will go for Option 1 and try to reverse the World Champs result with a Goss sprint, keeping Gerrans or Evans to cover a late breakaway attempt by someone like Chavanel.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

But this isn't really a classic, they do a few times up a hill which in all likelihood will serve as a launching pad for futile attacks that will be brought back by the sprinters' teams. This is clearly a day for the sprinters and EBH is Norway's best sprinter (sorry Thor)

Yeah when we are comparing him to other Norwegan riders, he seems a reasonable pick, but Waterloo was comparing him to Degenkolb and GVA, claiming Degenkolb and GVA have a much smaller chance of winnig this thing than EBH.

My guess is, if Greipel gets dropped, and Degenkolb can sprint for himself rather than leading out Greipel, Degekolb would easily outsprint EBH after so many kilometers.

 

[robert_c]

Greipel seems to be the fastest sprinter out there...

I'm glad you're not on the Cav bandwagon just because he is on the same team as Froome, but I do think you're wrong. Cav is the fastest.

Why do you think he is faster?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Lol, no.

Degenkolb and GVA actually have much better results in classics than EBH.

EDIT: well Degenkolb is still young; but 5th at Milan San Remo is this year is much better than anything EBH has shown in classics, and very relevant for these Olympics.

Ridden Box Hill much?

This 250km is no more difficult than the 245km stages he won and podiumed in the Giro.

He has a theoretical weapon to win (top 3). Those 2 simply do not in this company.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I'm glad you're not on the Cav bandwagon just because he is on the same team as Froome, but I do think you're wrong. Cav is the fastest.

Cav just won three stages to Greipel's one. Why do you think he is faster?

Griepel won 3.

But non in a proper heads up against Cav, so his 3 this year were less impressive than his win from last year.

 

[Kellys Big Sprocket]

Massive weight of expectation on Cav. The whole of the UK know who he is even if they don't follow cycling. Hope ho does well. Infact I hope he wins the race. Not for GB or his team but because I've £40 on him to win it.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Massive weight of expectation on Cav. The whole of the UK know who he is even if they don't follow cycling. Hope ho does well. Infact I hope he wins the race. Not for GB or his team but because I've £40 on him to win it.

I hope you got on in the lull before his last 2 wins.

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Ridden Box Hill much?

This 250km is no more difficult than the 245km stages he won and podiumed in the Giro.

He has a theoretical weapon to win (top 3). Those 2 simply do not in this company.

A stage in a GT is something entirely different from a classic though; and despite the fact that this parcour may be too easy for a classic or not - I don't know, I've never ridden Box Hill - it will be ridden like a classic.

EBH keeps failing everytime in the classics, where GVA and Degenkolb succeed.

Also, Degenkolb might even be a faster sprinter then EBH, at least he'll probably be after 260km.

This years Milan-San Remo says it all for me. While Degenkolb was busy outsprinting Freire, losing only to Sagan, after almost 300km, EBH couldn't even hang on to the first group.

Now of course EBH may have just had a bad day; like Greg van Avermaet who was even further back than EBH. But unlike GVA, EBH has never done well in Milan San Remo.

If it's a difficult race over 260km, EBH won't be in the first group, while GVA could still be there and maybe even Degenkolb. If it's an easier race over 260km, EBH will be outsprinted by Degenkolb.

Stop being a Sky fanboy and look at EBH's results reasonably; he is a great cyclist, who has won many great races, but year after year he fails at the classics. Unlike GVA and Degenkolb.

 

[Froome19]

I'm glad you're not on the Cav bandwagon just because he is on the same team as Froome, but I do think you're wrong. Cav is the fastest.

Cav just won three stages to Greipel's one. Why do you think he is faster?

I wrote that somewhere else before Cav won his last 2 stage in the Tour
A bit lax of me not to update it, but indeed they are probably around the same and are probably evenly matched.

Once again on Champs Elysees Greipel did not manage to get his positioning correct and in fact we have yet to see a stage where both of them get their positioning exact and in such a case I would expect it to be pretty tight.

So it really depends on the leadout Sieberg and Martin etc can provide Greipel.

In terms of Cav being on the same team of course I support his as he is British but I am still a realist and I hope that I appraise his abilities and others who I support in a fair realistic manner.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Even if I take your entirely incorrect assumption that this is a tough classics course, Degenkolb and GVA do not have a realistic chance of a top result (and neither does EBH).

If however, it is a long sprint stage with some small hills in the middle, EBH has demonstrated an ability (not a certainty) to podium that Degenkolb and GVA have not.

EBH has a very small chance. I just don't see any scenario where the other 2 get a decent result within the probability ranges of sporting predictions.

In any case, I advise you to fill your boots laying EBH, because plenty of mugs are backing him on betfair.

 

[Froome19]

A stage in a GT is something entirely different from a classic though; and despite the fact that this parcour may be too easy for a classic or not - I don't know, I've never ridden Box Hill - it will be ridden like a classic.

EBH keeps failing everytime in the classics, where GVA and Degenkolb succeed.

Also, Degenkolb might even be a faster sprinter then EBH, at least he'll probably be after 260km.

This years Milan-San Remo says it all for me. While Degenkolb was busy outsprinting Freire, losing only to Sagan, after almost 300km, EBH couldn't even hang on to the first group.

Now of course EBH may have just had a bad day; like Greg van Avermaet who was even further back than EBH. But unlike GVA, EBH has never done well in Milan San Remo.

If it's a difficult race over 260km, EBH won't be in the first group, while GVA could still be there and maybe even Degenkolb. If it's an easier race over 260km, EBH will be outsprinted by Degenkolb.

Stop being a Sky fanboy and look at EBH's results reasonably; he is a great cyclist, who has won many great races, but year after year he fails at the classics. Unlike GVA and Degenkolb.

EBH form in classics < EBH form currently

By a long way, EBH was awful in the classics and that was because though he won a stage in TA his form was low, now his form his high there is nothing to suggest based on his classics season that he could not survive.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Once again on Champs Elysees Greipel did not manage to get his positioning correct and in fact we have yet to see a stage where both of them get their positioning exact and in such a case I would expect it to be pretty tight.

Stage 2, 2012 TDF.

Greipel had a perfect leadout, Cav fought hard to eventually reach his wheel. Then beat him in the sprint.

Greipel then won 3 stages, 2 where Cav had crashed, 1 where Cav started sprinting in the wind at 400m to go from 25 yards back whilst Greipel had a perfect leadout.

Not sure even El P would try to claim parity based on the last Tour. And in a 5 man team race where any leadout is going to be 1 or 2 man at absolute best, it really does swing to Cav, as long as he's still around then.

 

[Froome19]

Not sure why you've copied and pasted a week old post from another forum when the world has already moved on and proved your first sentence wrong.

Busted

It was something which I did in a rush will edit it now.

 

[therhodeo]

How is it that so many people think that a one day race with at most 5 people per team is in any way comparable to a stage of a grand tour?

 

[Froome19]

Stage 2, 2012 TDF.

Greipel had a perfect leadout, Cav fought hard to eventually reach his wheel. Then beat him in the sprint.

Greipel then won 3 stages, 2 where Cav had crashed, 1 where Cav started sprinting in the wind at 400m to go from 25 yards back whilst Greipel had a perfect leadout.

Not sure even El P would try to claim parity based on the last Tour. And in a 5 man team race where any leadout is going to be 1 or 2 man at absolute best, it really does swing to Cav, as long as he's still around then.

You maybe right about Stage 2 but at the same time I would like to see them both equally sprinting with equal leadouts before I reach such an assumption just yet, as variables when Cavendish is coming from the wheel etc means the sprint is not totally fair and of course that sprint was tight and may swing another direction on another day.

I agree with your last paragraph but as I mentioned previously if Greipel does manage to have Sieberg and Martin with him then they may be able to recreate some of the leadouts he enjoyed at the Tour and that will make the sprint very interesting, though generally with such limited resources at the end of a 250km race Cav will have to be the favourite as he demonstrated at the World Champs last year, simply due to his superior positioning and sprinting nous.

 

[Froome19]

How is it that so many people think that a one day race with at most 5 people per team is in any way comparable to a stage of a grand tour?

When comes to a flat out sprint to see who is the fastest then it is somewhat comparable, yet if we were inspecting other aspects of the race such as the chance of it ending up as a sprint then indeed you would be right.

 

[Caruut]

Even if I take your entirely incorrect assumption that this is a tough classics course, Degenkolb and GVA do not have a realistic chance of a top result (and neither does EBH).

If however, it is a long sprint stage with some small hills in the middle, EBH has demonstrated an ability (not a certainty) to podium that Degenkolb and GVA have not.

EBH has a very small chance. I just don't see any scenario where the other 2 get a decent result within the probability ranges of sporting predictions.

In any case, I advise you to fill your boots laying EBH, because plenty of mugs are backing him on betfair.

The course is not the issue - it's the way it is raced.

With 5 man teams, the best way to control a move is to cover it with one of your men. GVA has the strength to get into an attack late on in the race and the speed to finish it from a small group. This is a completely different ballgame to a flat stage of the Tour.

 

[Caruut]

How is it that so many people think that a one day race with at most 5 people per team is in any way comparable to a stage of a grand tour?

Because they don't watch classics enough.

 

[therhodeo]

Because they don't watch classics enough.

Must be. Classics aren't tough because of the course. They're tough because of how they're ridden. There is no "Day 2" in a classic.

 

[Caruut]

Must be. Classics aren't tough because of the course. They're tough because of how they're ridden. There is no "Day 2" in a classic.

Well, a bit of both, but the point remains that you cannot predict how a one-day race will pan out based on similar stages of GTs. The only GT stages that even come close to the racing style of classics are mountain stages where all the favourites contest the win.