Paris - Roubaix 2024, one day monument, April 7

[Danskebjerge]

(I'm posting this here, even though it was while watching the women's race I had the thought. However, it's kinda "relevant" - in a thought-experience kind of way - for both races.)

What would happen if a group starts their final lap, and just as they're passing the entrance to the velodrome, another group is about to enter?
Chaos?
The second group being asked to wait?

I'm quite sure no organizer would make such a finish if he were to draw a route for a new race. It comes with a risk, and I believe there was some degree of chaos at the finish line a couple of years ago. In any case, the simultaneous passing of the finish line by both the leading riders and the ones who are a lap behind, will of course look really ugly.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

For a sec I read map as parking lot area to include inside loop. Now that would be...

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Well, we do not yet know if people will crash because of the new chicane…

My take is there will be no crash at the new Arenberg chicane due to the absolute attention to this new leg brace, all teams engaged in combat training in the reconnaissance with different scenarios, formations, speed limit testing and so on.

And as it happens now and then when a part of the chain steals the full attention away from other sections, we could witness defining crashes at unexpected locations, e.g. a serious crash at Hornaing á Wandignies (could be a selected mixed groups of favourites and early breakaway or big crash in chasing groups with other favourites) or on a flat wide road section with a few seconds of inattention...... or worse: Total havoc at Haveluy á Wallers and as a consequence scattered and amputated random small groups entering Arenberg, resulting in an early and lopsided decision for the final race result and a 'meh' feeling of endless dissapointments.

Hope I've jinxed it now to the better side.

 

[Sciatic]

I probably posted too many videos, but those of us in the USA still don't get as much insider info as we'd like. There are several other good interviews from Cycling Pro Net on YouTube as well.

EDIT: Maybe I should just speak for myself: I don't get as much insider information as I'd like.

I’m all for more insider info!

 

[Amazinmets87]

So it's raining at the moment? Cobbles will be wet for the race?

 

[Nick2413]

Looks like a strong tailwind all day especially in the first half.

 

[scribers]

The sun will be rising soon. And hell shall be unleashed onto the day!

 

[DNP-Old]

The sacred day has arrived.

 

[Rob5091]

Scenarios for today-
MvdP stays upright, he wins. MvdP falls once, gets up again and wins. MvdP falls more then once, does not win. MvdP punctures, he gets back on to win. MvdP crashes, someone rides into him, he does not win. WvA sits at home watching the TV saying, I could have won!
Winners today? First man over the line and the guy selling soap/shower gel to the riders at the finish.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Van der Poel is the favorite again, but the double is far from a given. In Flanders he could make the difference with his explosiveness on the climbs. On the flat cobblestones it won’t be so obvious to create a gap, and a lot can go wrong with jams, crashes and mechanicals.

If Philipsen is still there after Carrefour he will get the chance to sprint, but it won’t be obvious to equal last year’s performance in muddy conditions. He can also play a tactical role in the second group, like Wiebes yesterday.

So who can stop Alpecin from winning a third consecutive monument? Pedersen can handle the cobblestones and rely on his sprint. Küng has made the top 5 in the previous two editions. UAE and Ineos will try to keep several pawns in the game. Visma and Soudal-Q are weakened but experienced. A strong outsider might have a chance from the early breakaway.

The fight for position before the much debated hairpin will be hefty. A team that’s well represented after Arenberg can seize tactical control. Mons–en-Pévèle is the ideal sector for a strong rider to get to the front. Carrefour de l’Arbre is the last good chance to drop your opponents, but a decisive move can happen anywhere. May the best man win!

 

[tobydawq]

We're all going to be singing this song at the end of the day:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1509945252529983493

View: https://twitter.com/GroupamaFDJ/status/1509945252529983493

 

[Rob5091]

No room in the car? No problem! (from 1981)

 

[DNP-Old]

It doesn't look wet, but it's not dry either. The worst possible scenario. If the wind is just a tiny bit disadvantageous the stars will have aligned for Philipsen to take his second monument, what a tragedy.

 

[vladimir]

How is Degenkolb doing after the recon crash? I am (or was) pretty certain that some German is going to top5 tomorrow - now it seems to be Politt has to do it.

No love for Walscheid? I have put money on him winning the whole thing

 

[Squire]

It doesn't look wet, but it's not dry either. The worst possible scenario. If the wind is just a tiny bit disadvantageous the stars will have aligned for Philipsen to take his second monument, what a tragedy.

What's so bad about slightly damp?

Also, the wind is giga tailwind according to the Feltet guy, so it could be a very selective race. Not the most Philipsen friendly I'd reckon.

 

[search]

Order of team cars today, if I didn't miss anyone:

1. 4 ALPECIN-DECEUNINCK
2. 5 LIDL-TREK
3. 24 INEOS GRENADIERS
4. 28 GROUPAMA-FDJ
5. 37 ARKEA-B&B HOTELS
6. 50 SOUDAL QUICK-STEP
7. 58 TEAM VISMA | LEASE A BIKE
8. 59 EF EDUCATION - EASYPOST
9. 60 UAE TEAM EMIRATES
10. 64 BORA - HANSGROHE
11. 92 UNO-X MOBILITY
12. 120 MOVISTAR TEAM
13. 121 INTERMARCHÉ - WANTY
14. 123 TOTALENERGIES150 ISRAEL - PREMIER TECH
15. 159 TEAM DSM-FIRMENICH POSTNL
16. 169 DECATHLON AG2R LA MONDIALE TEAM
17. 171 TEAM JAYCO ALULA
18. 194 LOTTO DSTNY
19. 217 ASTANA QAZAQSTAN TEAM
20. 240 Q36.5 PRO CYCLING TEAM
21. 265 COFIDIS
22. 298 BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS
23. 500 BINGOAL WB
24. 1209 TEAM FLANDERS - BALOIS

(the number is the position of the best placed starting rider in UCI rankings)

 

[Andy262]

No love for Walscheid? I have put money on him winning the whole thing

I backed him, Moscon and AN other in the wet year. Walscheid and Moscon were both going great guns till it all fell apart!

 

[pelotonIQ]

Around 54km of cobbles. Lovely.

 

[RedheadDane]

According to Rolf Sørensen, in order the drain the cobbles they have dug ditches in the sides, which forces the riders to ride the cobbles.

 

[DNP-Old]

Van Baarle DNS. Visma is cursed.

 

[dobrien]

What's so bad about slightly damp?

Also, the wind is giga tailwind according to the Feltet guy, so it could be a very selective race. Not the most Philipsen friendly I'd reckon.

Slightly damp means no mud, nor any dust, and many more options to avoid cobbles, big factors that when present(IMHO) contribute greatly to making the race more selective. I may be exaggerating a little but when it's like this it's much closer to being just another hard road race albeit one containing some really bad roads.

As far as Philipsen goes, I think these are the absolute most Philipsen-friendly conditions imaginable, and he's my pick as favorite to win. He's shown last year he has the engine for this race, more than strong enough to be there again in the finale this year. Additionally, MVDP has already shown at MSR he's willing to work for Jasper if Jasper is there at the end and has the legs. Barring disaster these two are going to be very formidable indeed today and for me hard to see past one or the other of them winning.

As usual, I could be completely wrong of course. ;-)

 

[Salvarani]

Slightly damp means no mud, nor any dust, and many more options to avoid cobbles, big factors that when present(IMHO) contribute greatly to making the race more selective. I may be exaggerating a little but when it's like this it's much closer to being just another hard road race albeit one containing some really bad roads.

As far as Philipsen goes, I think these are the absolute most Philipsen-friendly conditions imaginable, and he's my pick as favorite to win. He's shown last year he has the engine for this race, more than strong enough to be there again in the finale this year. Additionally, MVDP has already shown at MSR he's willing to work for Jasper if Jasper is there at the end and has the legs. Barring disaster these two are going to be very formidable indeed today and for me hard to see past one or the other of them winning.

As usual, I could be completely wrong of course. ;-)

Think last year was perfect for them... and Van Aert had bad luck, puncturing twice. Degenkolb crashed. Pedersen also had mechanicals.

Jasper had to change his bike once, but other than that they had a perfect race with few problems.

Big favorites but a lot can happen. I would like to believe so and that it will be an entertaining race, no matter who wins.

 

[tobydawq]

Van Baarle DNS. Visma is cursed.

It's incredible. Absolutely unbelievable.

 

[KZD]

The main scenarios for today:

Van der Poel is stronger than anyone else, forces a selection and either wins solo or in a very reduced sprint against slower riders.

Van der Poel crashes or is not strong enough to drop his rivals, Philipsen is there and Van der Poel works for his teammate to win once again (someone like Pedersen can outsprint Philipsen but its unlikely)

An outsider like Küng, Politt or even Tarling attacks likely close to the finish and is able to stay solo (easy to do if teams like Alpecin or Trek only have one rider left).

As for possible surprises, besides Tarling that I have already mentioned, I am thinking about sprinters like Milan or even Merlier and I will be curious to see what Pidcock does as I don't really think this is a good race for him.

 

[Roku]

The day of the Rex has finally arrived.

With all the casualties and hoping lady luck is on his side, Top10 should be "easily" attainable, and a Top5 is within his reach (hoping for even a bit more)