Power Data Estimates for the climbing stages

[Krzysztof_O]

Based on the article, 40 minutes.

Other relevant snippet regarding 7wk/g, which we almost are at now and wat above the previously stated 6.2... :

about 7W/kg, and applying the same equations as I’ve done throughout this post, you can work out that it requires oxygen consumption of 87 ml/kg/min, and a VO2max of 97 ml/kg/min (and that’s at 90% of maximum. If you go with 85%, you get 103 ml/kg/min…).

Is that realistic? I suspect that your answer to that question depends not on what you know, but rather on what you want to believe. I don’t believe that it is possible, because the combination of high efficiency (and 23% is high) and high VO2max doesn’t seem to exist. In fact, Lucia et al showed that there was an inverse relationship, so that those with the best efficiency had the lowest VO2max [cite

Maybe the key is the ability to operate at a super-high percentage of VO2max for a long time. For example Pogacar's best 4-5 minute efforts (San Luca, Eze) were 7.9-8 w/kg, which according to those calculations corresponds to about 97 ml/kg/min of VO2 (effort of this duration is good to cause max. aerobic response - VO2max). However, part of this power is obtained in a purely anaerobic way (part of lactate is not cleared on time and accumulates during such an intense effort), so the true aerobic system response is a bit weaker than that (less than 97). Then 6.9-7 w/kg on PdB would correspond to 87 ml/kg/min, which would indicate 90+% of VO2max. Power curve almost "flat", monster metabolism.

Then again, I have no idea how accurate are those calculations. Another problem is performances vary too much between days. PdB and Isola were watt H-bombs. It's possible that on those super-duper days Pogacar's 5 minute effort would be above 8 w/kg (indicating VO2max boost), who knows?

 

[meat puppet]

Sure, if Pog was one or two blood bags more prepared in the longer climb stages than on San Luca, then of course the maximum oxygen uptake available to him is higher. And had he on those days gone for it during a 4-5min effort, the output might have been higher than, say, San Luca. But only if fatigue doesn't prevent this (I feel stupid writing that, as if he fatigues).

Agreed about "the ability to operate at a super-high percentage of VO2max for a long time" being key. When one thinks about it, that is the definition of endurance right there, and increasing the power and the duration at the higher power is the end goal of all performance oriented endurance training. It never gets easier, you just go faster, as it were.

There is an old but very worthwhile paper on this topic by Coyle (of clinic fame for his work on Armstrong) and coauthors. No doping angle, there, just well done basic exercise physiology that points to very basic and simple things being important.

Determinants of endurance in well-trained cyclists - PubMed

Fourteen competitive cyclists who possessed a similar maximum O2 consumption (VO2 max; range, 4.6-5.0 l/min) were compared regarding blood lactate responses, glycogen usage, and endurance during submaximal exercise. Seven subjects reached their blood lactate threshold (LT) during exercise of a...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Sure, if Pog was one or two blood bags more prepared in the longer climb stages than on San Luca, then of course the maximum oxygen uptake available to him is higher. And had he on those days gone for it during a 4-5min effort, the output might have been higher than, say, San Luca. But only if fatigue doesn't prevent this (I feel stupid writing that, as if he fatigues).

Agreed about "the ability to operate at a super-high percentage of VO2max for a long time" being key. When one thinks about it, that is the definition of endurance right there, and increasing the power and the duration at the higher power is the end goal of all performance oriented endurance training. It never gets easier, you just go faster, as it were.

There is an old but very worthwhile paper on this topic by Coyle (of clinic fame for his work on Armstrong) and coauthors. No doping angle, there, just well done basic exercise physiology that points to very basic and simple things being important.

Determinants of endurance in well-trained cyclists - PubMed

Fourteen competitive cyclists who possessed a similar maximum O2 consumption (VO2 max; range, 4.6-5.0 l/min) were compared regarding blood lactate responses, glycogen usage, and endurance during submaximal exercise. Seven subjects reached their blood lactate threshold (LT) during exercise of a...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

But what is the secret key to maximize sustainable VO2max percentage i.e. getting anaerobic threshold as close to VO2max as possible? (except for obvious solution: high-quality training). I'm curious if there are any "artificial boost" substances that make aerobic metabolic pathways (esp. lactate clearance) as efficient as possible (without boost of the actual VO2max). Or maybe we are going towards gene doping territory.

 

[Sciatic]

But what is the secret key to maximize sustainable VO2max percentage i.e. getting anaerobic threshold as close to VO2max as possible? (except for obvious solution: high-quality training). I'm curious if there are any "artificial boost" substances that make aerobic metabolic pathways (esp. lactate clearance) as efficient as possible (without boost of the actual VO2max). Or maybe we are going towards gene doping territory.

I think we’re a long way off from gene doping (re: VO2 max and other oxygen usage) of the type that most folks imagine—substituting or altering a specific gene using Crispr technology to enhance performance. It’s true that there are now ways to use that technology for medical purposes to manipulate genes involved in making blood. One example is a new treatment for sickle-cell disease. But the treatment involves getting the equivalent of a bone-marrow transplant that has health risks and requires hospitalization for long periods. A more likely avenue for gene doping is the emergence of drugs specifically tailored for individual genes involved in erythropoiesis (the blood-making process). For now, those are meant to offset the impact of gene mutations in anemic individuals, so may not help a healthy person at all. But research heading that direction could lead to drugs tailored to specific genes that will will simply enhance the activity of that gene.

But why do all that when we’ll have marine lugworm blood? 😂

 

[meat puppet]

Wouldn't the relevant gene to meddle with re endogenous epo production be the one that inhibits epo secretion?

Anyway, going by the slice of ex phys literature that I know, the answer is going to be a pretty boring one: high threshold results from genetics and endurance training. Drugs help one to train harder to attain more of the qualities found useful in the article above. And meddling with blood will help to put more fuel to the fire.

 

[zlev11]

i just remembered again that Pogacar did 6.88w/kg on Plateau de Beille. jfc.

 

[Sciatic]

Wouldn't the relevant gene to meddle with re endogenous epo production be the one that inhibits epo secretion?

Anyway, going by the slice of ex phys literature that I know, the answer is going to be a pretty boring one: high threshold results from genetics and endurance training. Drugs help one to train harder to attain more of the qualities found useful in the article above. And meddling with blood will help to put more fuel to the fire.

Could you explain your Q1st sentence a little more? I’m interested but Im not sure what specific doping or health question you’re referring to there?

 

[Peyroteo94]

i just remembered again that Pogacar did 6.88w/kg on Plateau de Beille. jfc.

A legendary moment for sure! Best climbing performance of all times!

 

[Froome]

A legendary moment for sure! Best climbing performance of all times!

Iban mayo, mont ventoux 2004 is the best perfomance ever.

 

[meat puppet]

Could you explain your Q1st sentence a little more? I’m interested but Im not sure what specific doping or health question you’re referring to there?

This topic of gene doping with epo was discussed a bit a couple years back in the clinic and some papers were also linked, which I skimmed. From memory, the initial animal studies reported that monkeys injected with a "produce more EPO" gene first began producing RBCs like crazy, and their blood had to be drawn constantly so that the sludge doesn't kill them. But as the regulation of endogenous EPO production is dynamic, the overproduction in the said monkeys later turned into exhibiting anemia.

So in the context of this dynamic regulation, delaying (or otherwise downregulating) the factors that switch off endogenous EPO production could be safer (assuming this is a concern) and thus more feasible. At the very least one would likely have to meddle with "both sides" of the on/off switch. Inverted commas inserted because the regulation consists of many factors.

Poor monkeys

Fwiw, a similar kind of reasoning was laid out here: https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-training/the-future-of-blood-doping-epo-gene-doping/

 

[Tim Cahill]

Almost 7 w/kg for 24 minutes for Roglic, seems like Pla d'Adet level or at least around that. Just think about what he could do if errr my back was not err very sore and my the race has been super hard so far so I've told the guys not to pace for the stage and it's my 2nd GT of the season and I'm not sure errrrrr my wife wants me to be here no?

 

[Sciatic]

This topic of gene doping with epo was discussed a bit a couple years back in the clinic and some papers were also linked, which I skimmed. From memory, the initial animal studies reported that monkeys injected with a "produce more EPO" gene first began producing RBCs like crazy, and their blood had to be drawn constantly so that the sludge doesn't kill them. But as the regulation of endogenous EPO production is dynamic, the overproduction in the said monkeys later turned into exhibiting anemia.

So in the context of this dynamic regulation, delaying (or otherwise downregulating) the factors that switch off endogenous EPO production could be safer (assuming this is a concern) and thus more feasible. At the very least one would likely have to meddle with "both sides" of the on/off switch. Inverted commas inserted because the regulation consists of many factors.

Poor monkeys

Fwiw, a similar kind of reasoning was laid out here: https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-training/the-future-of-blood-doping-epo-gene-doping/

Thanks for the explanation and the link, really interesting stuff. A couple of things in the article dudn’t make sense to me, but that could be that the authors didn’t fully understand the science or couldn’t explain it all clearly.
A minor point: they mention EPO injections and blood doping were “instant boosts,” when that is not at all true for rEPO, since EPO merely signals the bone marrow to increase RBC production, which in turn takes time to boost hematocrit.
More important was this: “New detection methods will have to be developed and validated before they can be introduced for routine testing, providing a window of time that may stretch to years before offenders can be caught.” Hmm . . .
It’s a very simple test for native EPO levels in the bloodstream. If a gene therapy induced vastly increased EPO production from the kidneys then that would be blatantly obvious in the standard endogenous EPO test. So I would think that they could just set a limit like they did with the 50% HCT level for pro cyclists, at least until they develop another identifier.

If cyclist are indeed getting away with microdosing rEPO, that is vastly simpler, cheaper, and possibly healthier than altering an EPO production gene.

 

[Froome]

Almost 7 w/kg for 24 minutes for Roglic, seems like Pla d'Adet level or at least around that. Just think about what he could do if errr my back was not err very sore and my the race has been super hard so far so I've told the guys not to pace for the stage and it's my 2nd GT of the season and I'm not sure errrrrr my wife wants me to be here no?

Yeah, and he didn't had a proper preparation for this Vuelta. The podium was a strong possibility in the Tour.

 

[Scarponi]

People were saying they were happy to watch a race with humans in it and we almost got a 7 lol

 

[Invicituz]

Roglič Unleashes Hellish Climbing Effort for Victory | Vuelta a España 2024 Stage 19:

Roglič Unleashes Hellish Climbing Effort for Victory | Vuelta a España 2024 Stage 19 - Lanterne Rouge

Primož Roglič delivered his best-ever pure climbing performance on Alto de Moncalvillo, winning his 15th stage in the Vuelta a España and becoming the new race leader.

lanternerouge.com

In perfect conditions, Roglič delivered a monster climbing performance, pushing 6.97 ᵉW/Kg for 23:55 min, smashing his 2020 time by 58 seconds.

Almost every top effort adjusted for altitude in the 21st century now comes from 2024, marking a significant leap in cycling performance.

Roglic goes 1 min faster on Moncalvillo:

Roglic goes 1 min faster on Moncalvillo

Alto de Moncalvillo 2024:8,5 km@9,0%---23:54---average speed 21.34 km/h(Primoz Roglic) 2020:8,5 km@9,0%---24:53---average speed 20.50 km/h...

www.climbing-records.com

Alto de Moncalvillo
2024:8,5 km@9,0%---23:54---average speed 21.34 km/h(Primoz Roglic)
2020:8,5 km@9,0%---24:53---average speed 20.50 km/h(Primoz Roglic)

 

[peterfin]

show me your references claiming its physically impossible..... thanks

The 'power data estimates for the climbing stages' thread gives you a good start if you want to study it. Focus on his Plateau de Beille result and try to come up with an explanation that makes sense without doping. Fyi, this is an article with details of the full stage and power estimates: https://www.chronoswatts.com/news/228/

 

[topt]

The 'power data estimates for the climbing stages' thread gives you a good start if you want to study it. Focus on his Plateau de Beille result and try to come up with an explanation that makes sense without doping. Fyi, this is an article with details of the full stage and power estimates: https://www.chronoswatts.com/news/228/

I know the estimates which are total crap when comparing them to historic results cause they dont compare change in equipment; now explain to me why its physically impossible

 

[peterfin]

I know the estimates which are total crap when comparing them to historic results cause they dont compare change in equipment; now explain to me why its physically impossible

In a mountain climb it is all about watt/kg. Changes in aero, roll resistance, stifness, braking, shifting etc have no significant impact. The weight of the bike didn't change significantly since Armstrong. The 2003 TdF bike of Armstrong is estimated to be the lightest used in TdF history (was prior to the 6.8kg limit). https://felixwong.com/2010/11/tour-de-france-bicycles-historical-bike-weights/

 

[Cookster15]

The 2003 TdF bike of Armstrong is estimated to be the lightest used in TdF history (was prior to the 6.8kg limit).

Thanks for the link, very interesting. On the above, it is noteworthy that Armstrong's 2003 frame wasn't particularly light - 2.2lbs 980 grams? Many top notch frames these days are sub 900grams even with aero.

 

[topt]

In a mountain climb it is all about watt/kg. Changes in aero, roll resistance, stifness, braking, shifting etc have no significant impact. The weight of the bike didn't change significantly since Armstrong. The 2003 TdF bike of Armstrong is estimated to be the lightest used in TdF history (was prior to the 6.8kg limit). https://felixwong.com/2010/11/tour-de-france-bicycles-historical-bike-weights/

oh man, rolling resistance and gears have no significant impact on climbs; despite working in the bike industry for 25 years this forum always teaches me something new; thanks

 

[topt]

oh man, rolling resistance and gears have no significant impact on climbs; despite working in the bike industry for 25 years this forum always teaches me something new; thanks

GCN made quite a few comparison betwen old bikes (with new tyres BTW ) and modern ones; I suggest you check it out

 

[E_F_]

GCN made quite a few comparison betwen old bikes (with new tyres BTW ) and modern ones; I suggest you check it out

Sponsored I'd think. Nevertheless your trouble remains: W/kg are W/kg - they account for the weight of the bike, the rolling resistance, from the tyres, from the road, the drag on the bike, on the jersey, from the wind. Of course they will never be perfect, as we don't have data from bike computers from back then - but arguing that they can't be perfectly reasonable estimates, that tell us enough to make comparisons to the present isn't fair.

 

[peterfin]

oh man, rolling resistance and gears have no significant impact on climbs; despite working in the bike industry for 25 years this forum always teaches me something new; thanks

You're welcome. I am a mechanical engineer with 25 years of experience. At a ~10% gradients rolling resistance and gears add up to 5-7% of the energy budget. Even if the new tech during the last 20 years really moved the needle by reducing it with say 20-40% (would be huge), we are talking about ~1-2% of the energy budget. That's ~5-10 W. This is not the improvement we are seeing. We are talking about an increase vs post-EPO era and pre-2020 numbers of 10-15% or +50 W. That is definitely not due to the mechanical improvements of the bike.

 

[E_F_]

You're welcome. I am a mechanical engineer with 25 years of experience. At a ~10% gradients rolling resistance and gears add up to 5-7% of the energy budget. Even if the new tech during the last 20 years really moved the needle by reducing it with say 20-40% (would be huge), we are talking about ~1-2% of the energy budget. That's ~5-10 W. This is not the improvement we are seeing. We are talking about an increase vs post-EPO era and pre-2020 numbers of 10-15% or +50 W. That is definitely not due to the mechanical improvements of the bike.

Next you're gonna tell me tiny improvements to the aerodynamics of the bikes themselves don't actually make a huge difference...

 

[topt]

You're welcome. I am a mechanical engineer with 25 years of experience. At a ~10% gradients rolling resistance and gears add up to 5-7% of the energy budget. Even if the new tech during the last 20 years really moved the needle by reducing it with say 20-40% (would be huge), we are talking about ~1-2% of the energy budget. That's ~5-10 W. This is not the improvement we are seeing. We are talking about an increase vs post-EPO era and pre-2020 numbers of 10-15% or +50 W. That is definitely not due to the mechanical improvements of the bike.

mechanical engineer ? Ok; please explain to me how rolling resistance differ based on gradients ? thank you
5-10 watts ? you really need to read up on tyre rolling resistance; there is 4-5 watts difference PER TYRE betwen most modern Conti GP 5000 tubless and the best tubular tyre which is Victoria Corsa that uses latex tube not butyl.
Gearing is totaly impossible to predict but please try a run with 11-23 cassete on 10% gradient;dont you think there is a reason pros dont climb standing up anymore that consumes more oxygen....