Predictions for 2010

[aarnold517]

I thought it would be nice to have a thread with some predictions for the 2010 season. Feel free to add any races that may interest you if i left it out.

Sanremo: Hushovd, i dont know if this year was a one-time fluke for cav or not but hushovd should be there regardless

Ronde: Cancellara, he has said that it is the one monument he really wants to win now after already winning roubaix and sanremo

Paris-Roubaix: Boonen, at this point im not betting against boonen in roubaix

Amstel Gold: Gesink, major classic in his home country, he showed in emilia he can win this type of steep uphill finish

Fleche Wallone: Cunego, only a matter of time until he wins this

Liege-Bastogne-Liege: Gilbert, showed he can hang with the best in these hilly classics and would not bet against him in a sprint

Giro: pelizotti, seems to be getting better and better each year and this year's climbs should suit him

Tour: contador, at this point miles ahead of everyone

San Sebastian: valverde, past-winner who has the best sprint out of a small group

Vuelta: Sastre, dont know who will be riding this year but i could see sastre focusing on the vuelta and winning

World Champs: Cav, if it comes down to a sprint, which is likely, not going to bet against him anytime soon

Lombardia: Samu Sanchez, he is due to win this sometime

 

[Anonymous]

Shack domination

I foresee Shack domination and lots of Shack Attacks

 

[Anonymous]

 

[Publicus]

LMAO.

I give you an A+ on effective communication through graphics. Bravo sir! Bravo!

 

[Hugh Januss]

Wasn't that Shrub's campaign button?

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I won't even venture a guess as to who will win what Classic; I'm not even sure who will go, but I can venture some other guesses:

-Heinrich Haussler will show he's for real. People think last year was it, but I expect him to a win a Classic and perhaps a couple GT stages by surviving the breaks. Last year he had a series of disappointing seconds with the Tour stage win. This will truly be a breakout year.

-Cavendish will win stages in every stage race he enters....again. He'll win the green jersey at the Tour and if he goes to Worlds he'll get the rainbow jersey.

-Tyler Farrar will win his first Tour stage by beating narrowly beating Cav.

-Wiggo won't podium in a GT.

My longshot predictions:
-Evans will finally win a GT, most likely the Vuelta.
-Contador will NOT win the Tour.

 

[Publicus]

I won't even venture a guess as to who will win what Classic; I'm not even sure who will go, but I can venture some other guesses:

-Heinrich Haussler will show he's for real. People think last year was it, but I expect him to a win a Classic and perhaps a couple GT stages by surviving the breaks. Last year he had a series of disappointing seconds with the Tour stage win. This will truly be a breakout year.

-Cavendish will win stages in every stage race he enters....again. He'll win the green jersey at the Tour and if he goes to Worlds he'll get the rainbow jersey.

-Tyler Farrar will win his first Tour stage by beating narrowly beating Cav.

-Wiggo won't podium in a GT.

My longshot predictions:
-Evans will finally win a GT, most likely the Vuelta.
-Contador will NOT win the Tour.

I don't think that's a long shot. Frankly I think he only has a 50/50 shot at this point. If the team doesn't shape up over the spring, I think he goes in as a decided underdog to Liquigas (Basso, Nibali) and Radio Shack (Levi). EDIT: I notably left Saxo Bank off the list of potential threats. While everyone has spent considerable time discussing the weakness of Astana, I think Saxo Bank has lost quite a bit during the transfer season. I don't see them as one of the strong teams any more. That may prove to be wrong, but I think (at least on paper) Astana is on par with (or ahead of) them heading into the season

 

[Anonymous]

I thought it would be nice to have a thread with some predictions for the 2010 season. Feel free to add any races that may interest you if i left it out.

Sanremo: Hushovd, i dont know if this year was a one-time fluke for cav or not but hushovd should be there regardless


Ronde: Cancellara, he has said that it is the one monument he really wants to win now after already winning roubaix and sanremo


Paris-Roubaix: Boonen, at this point im not betting against boonen in roubaix



Amstel Gold: Gesink, major classic in his home country, he showed in emilia he can win this type of steep uphill finish


Fleche Wallone: Cunego, only a matter of time until he wins this


Liege-Bastogne-Liege: Gilbert, showed he can hang with the best in these hilly classics and would not bet against him in a sprint


Giro: pelizotti, seems to be getting better and better each year and this year's climbs should suit him


Tour: contador, at this point miles ahead of everyone


San Sebastian: valverde, past-winner who has the best sprint out of a small group


Vuelta: Sastre, dont know who will be riding this year but i could see sastre focusing on the vuelta and winning


World Champs: Cav, if it comes down to a sprint, which is likely, not going to bet against him anytime soon


Lombardia: Samu Sanchez, he is due to win this sometime

Cav wins SanRemo in a romp.

Two years in a row Boonen has watched Devolder win the RvV because he's so heavily marked. No other favorite will let Devolder go again. I just don't see anyone winning this race unless they ride for Quickstep. Chavenal perhaps.

Hushovd threw P-R away last year. He wins this year.

Amstel Gold, a Schleck perhaps?

Boasson Hagen kills it at Fleche.

Valverde at L-B-L and after another terrible TdF wins his second Vuelta.

I'd like to see Pelizotti win the Giro. Good call. Great team.

Boring tour. AC in a landslide.

Sammy Sanchez for San Sebastian.

Cav in a bunch sprint at Worlds. Farrar close second.

Gilbert at Lombardia.

 

[ak-zaaf]

When I did this last year, I had the correct winner on the first 2 races (Omloop het volk and Paris - Nice) and after that only the TDF

Sanremo: Gilbert, he's been trying for so long.
Ronde: EBH, first big win for SKY.
Roubaix: Boonen.
AGR: Cunego, if he's focusing on the Giro he should be in shape here.
Fleche Wallone: Schlecklet.
Liege: Gilbert.
Giro: Depends on who Liquigas is sending. IMO Pellizotti, Nibali and Kreuziger can win it. Basso can't.
Tour: Contador.
Vuelta: Gesink.
Worlds: Someone with a sprint left in a 10 to 15 man group of classic riders: Cunego, Gilbert, EBH, Valverde, Breschel... No Cav at the line.
Lombardy: Someone who's still hungy.

 

[screaming fist]

EDIT: I notably left Saxo Bank off the list of potential threats. While everyone has spent considerable time discussing the weakness of Astana, I think Saxo Bank has lost quite a bit during the transfer season. I don't see them as one of the strong teams any more. That may prove to be wrong, but I think (at least on paper) Astana is on par with (or ahead of) them heading into the season

Yes, Saxo Bank has lost some strong riders - but only one of these has been part of the 2009 Tour team, Kurt Asle Arvesen. He mainly did a captain of the road job and covered breakaways, nothing O'Grady, Nicki Sorensen and Voigt can't do as well.
In fact, with the addition of Fuglsang as a mountain domestique and maybe Breschel taking the place of one of the 2009 riders, Saxo Bank will have a stronger team in France in 2010 than they had this year.

 

[maltiv]

Agree, I don't think Saxo Bank will be any weaker at all in the Tour. They do have a weaker team in the classics though, without Kolobnev and Kroon.

 

[The_Z_man]

I can't really argue with most predictions posted above.

I'm hoping everyone is wrong about P-R. Hincapie wants to be the first across the line at the velodrome. Obviously, if it comes down to him and Boonen, Tommeke is going to win. If George wants to win, he's going to have to solo into Roubaix.

As for the World's. I'm hoping everyone is wrong about Cav, not because I don't like him, but because I'd like to see Farrar pull on the rainbow jersey in Geelong. If Farrar has a late season peak like he did this year, he could take The Manx Express out.

 

[Publicus]

Yes, Saxo Bank has lost some strong riders - but only one of these has been part of the 2009 Tour team, Kurt Asle Arvesen. He mainly did a captain of the road job and covered breakaways, nothing O'Grady, Nicki Sorensen and Voigt can't do as well.
In fact, with the addition of Fuglsang as a mountain domestique and maybe Breschel taking the place of one of the 2009 riders, Saxo Bank will have a stronger team in France in 2010 than they had this year.

Fair point. Voigt may not be the same Voigt after last year's horrific crash. Stuey is getting a little long in the tooth. But that's all conjecture on my part. Saxo could be as strong (or stronger) at the 2010 TdF. I certainly think they will have the best DS/Team Manager in Riis.

 

[maltiv]

I can't really argue with most predictions posted above.

I'm hoping everyone is wrong about P-R. Hincapie wants to be the first across the line at the velodrome. Obviously, if it comes down to him and Boonen, Tommeke is going to win. If George wants to win, he's going to have to solo into Roubaix.

As for the World's. I'm hoping everyone is wrong about Cav, not because I don't like him, but because I'd like to see Farrar pull on the rainbow jersey in Geelong. If Farrar has a late season peak like he did this year, he could take The Manx Express out.

Great Britain is probably the only team that wants to work for a bunch sprint. The chances of a breakaway victory are extremely high, probably a group of 10-15 riders.

 

[kurtinsc]

MSR - EBH in a suprise
RVV - Ballan
Roubaix - Boonen
AGR - Kirchen
Fleche Wallone - Frank Schleck
Liege - Valverde
Giro - Pellizotti
Tour - Contador. Exact same podium as this year, Cav in green.
Vuelta - Gesink
Worlds - Cav
Lombardy - Gilbert

 

[Cerberus]

I don't think that's a long shot. Frankly I think he only has a 50/50 shot at this point. If the team doesn't shape up over the spring, I think he goes in as a decided underdog to Liquigas (Basso, Nibali) and Radio Shack (Levi). EDIT: I notably left Saxo Bank off the list of potential threats. While everyone has spent considerable time discussing the weakness of Astana, I think Saxo Bank has lost quite a bit during the transfer season. I don't see them as one of the strong teams any more. That may prove to be wrong, but I think (at least on paper) Astana is on par with (or ahead of) them heading into the season

I won't reiterate what everyone else has said about Saxo Bank, but don't you think you're overestimating the importance of the team? I'm no cycling expert, but I don't think even strong teams can reliably force a break in the peloton in anything but mountain stages, and in mountain stages Contador will probably pound Armstrong, Basso and quite likely Schlecklet into the ground. He could loose time on the cobbled stage, but only if he's unlucky, and even that might not be decisive.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I don't think that's a long shot. Frankly I think he only has a 50/50 shot at this point. If the team doesn't shape up over the spring, I think he goes in as a decided underdog to Liquigas (Basso, Nibali) and Radio Shack (Levi).

Agreed. He is certianly strong enough to win, but with more contenders next year, many strong teams (Liquigas being one), and Astana being significantly weaker, his chances at losing are far greater than some realize.

I can't really argue with most predictions posted above.

I'm hoping everyone is wrong about P-R. Hincapie wants to be the first across the line at the velodrome. Obviously, if it comes down to him and Boonen, Tommeke is going to win. If George wants to win, he's going to have to solo into Roubaix.

As for the World's. I'm hoping everyone is wrong about Cav, not because I don't like him, but because I'd like to see Farrar pull on the rainbow jersey in Geelong. If Farrar has a late season peak like he did this year, he could take The Manx Express out.

Being from the states, I would love to see Hincapie win on the velodrome, but like you said it will have to be a solo effort; he'll also need a little luck.

As for Farrar, when he peaked last year, it wasn't against the missile. I'm hoping for Farrar to win, but expecting Cav. Farrar has ambitions for the worlds, but I don't think he even expects to win in 2010. He'll still develop as a sprinter and 2011 could very well be his year. Ultimately, I hope I'm wrong with my prediction for Worlds; this is the only instance you'll see me root against Cav. It would be a huge boost for American cycling to have a WC, another American face to put with the sport other than Lance. I like the guy, but even I get sick of Lance fans caring little for the sport and networks like ESPN only covering races he is in. Soapbox ended.

 

[Ibanez]

Can't see Hincapie winning Roubaix - I would take both Ballan and Burghardt before him from his own team.

And good point on the worlds, I think GB will have their work cut out for them keeping it together. But then, they are finally approaching the strength in depth to do it. Now for my own

MSR: Due a breakaway win seems to alternate yearly. So Pozzato/Gilbert. Cav if its compatto.

Ronde: QS will finally screw it up, Haussler to get his big win.

GW: Cavendish making up for MSR getting away from him.

Roubaix: Boonen shows his teammates how its done after they ****** up de Ronde.

Amstel: Gilbert. More then capable of winning here now.

Fleche: Cunego, after making 3rd two years running. Going to time it right eventually. Same can be said of Evans, but he's WC, so will have mono or something.

LBL: Valverde sits behin his team to a 3rd win. Nothing exciting about his riding.

Giro: Pellizotti seems a good choice, getting better and better.

Tour: Contador. Armstrong 4th. Wiggins 6th.

SS: Meh, Sanchez can have this.

Hamburg: Ciolek in a bunch sprint.

Vuelta: Evans, having recovered from mono early in the season, comes a close 2nd. Doesn't matter who wins.

Worlds: Cavendish, I think it will stay together.

PT: Cavendish again, who will be impervious to the curse of the WC.

Lombardia: Riccardo Ricco. Promptly tests positive and is never seen again.

 

[Publicus]

I won't reiterate what everyone else has said about Saxo Bank, but don't you think you're overestimating the importance of the team? I'm no cycling expert, but I don't think even strong teams can reliably force a break in the peloton in anything but mountain stages, and in mountain stages Contador will probably pound Armstrong, Basso and quite likely Schlecklet into the ground. He could loose time on the cobbled stage, but only if he's unlucky, and even that might not be decisive.

Maybe, but then I think that cuts both ways. Everyone seems critical of Astana's team this year and that it may endanger AC's ability to win a 3rd TdF. If that's a reasonable line of thinking, then I think it is reasonable for all the other GC contenders.

 

[Angliru]

I foresee Shack domination and lots of Shack Attacks

I forsee you being terribly disappointed.

 

[richwagmn]

Speaking of Roubaix, what are everyone's opinion of Cavendish ever contending for it?

Currently, I don't see it. PR is such an individual event. Cav seems lost without a team to drag his *** around.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Speaking of Roubaix, what are everyone's opinion of Cavendish ever contending for it?

Currently, I don't see it. PR is such an individual event. Cav seems lost without a team to drag his *** around.

ofcourse not.

 

[Anonymous]

Cav wins SanRemo in a romp.

Two years in a row Boonen has watched Devolder win the RvV because he's so heavily marked. No other favorite will let Devolder go again. I just don't see anyone winning this race unless they ride for Quickstep. Chavenal perhaps.

Hushovd threw P-R away last year. He wins this year.

Amstel Gold, a Schleck perhaps?

Boasson Hagen kills it at Fleche.

Valverde at L-B-L and after another terrible TdF wins his second Vuelta.

I'd like to see Pelizotti win the Giro. Good call. Great team.

Boring tour. AC in a landslide.

Sammy Sanchez for San Sebastian.

Cav in a bunch sprint at Worlds. Farrar close second.

Gilbert at Lombardia.

I think we will read that phrase quite a few times this year.

 

[BeachBum]

my predictions for 2010

1) 90% of CN forums threads will be dominated by talk of, by, and about LANCE. In July, 100% of the threads will be about LANCE.

2) Garmin declares a truce with Columbia, and instead will do everything it can to hose over Sky riders.

3) Babes on Bikes continues to be the most popular CN forum thread, and will have over 5000 posts by Dec 31 2010.

 

[Publicus]

my predictions for 2010

1) 90% of CN forums threads will be dominated by talk of, by, and about LANCE. In July, 100% of the threads will be about LANCE.

2) Garmin declares a truce with Columbia, and instead will do everything it can to hose over Sky riders.

3) Babes on Bikes continues to be the most popular CN forum thread, and will have over 5000 posts by Dec 31 2010.

You really went out on a limb with that last one.