This time it's a stage leaving the Alpes and I think it'd be very good as the final mountain stage in a Tour. Although it has the most vertical gain since the epic Sestriere stage in '92 (not to mention vertical loss!), its HC climbs are only borderline and with the last mountain being 47km from the finish, I don't think it'll block the stages prior to this one. It could very well follow a stage ending on Risoul or Les Orres like the similar
stage from 1973.
Barcelonnette -> Menton (228km)
km 19:
Col d'Allos (HC) - 17km @ 6.5% - 2247m
km 53:
Col des Champs (1st) - 12km @ 7.0% - 2090m
km 93:
Col de Valberg (1st) - 12.2km @ 7.1% - 1673m
km 145:
Col de Saint-Martin (1st) - 16.4km @ 6.2% - 1503m
km 181:
Col de Turini (HC) - 15.1km @ 7.3% - 1604m
km 212:
Col de Castillon (2nd) - 6.7km @ 5.4% - 707m
Coming after the other mountain stages in the Alpes or at the very end of a Tour, the GC should be somewhat settled and contenders not in yellow should see this as an opportunity to take the yellow jersey after having failed to do so on regular mtfs and tts. The hard start with the Allos/Champs combo should make the legs decide the break of the day. Time to seal the polka dot with an epic raid ? la Virenque/Rasmussen? Whatever is left of 'fresh' teammates should be send up the road. There's not much flat in this stage and organizing a chase (especially if only by the defending team) will be very tough. Valberg and Saint-Martin will drain everyone before the showdown on Turini. It might be with 47km still to go, but with the difficulty behind, the difficulty of the climb and the more or less technical descents ahead, there's no excuse for not attacking. Only the fewest and strongest doms will have any impact on the race from now on and as such there won't be much of an advantage to what's left of the peloton. Gaps on the top of Turini should be similar to those of a hard mtf, so there's no use in sitting up, instead it's a mano a mano (or trio a trio perhaps?) chase down to Menton. Castillon is a small interruption and quite easy, but after so much even that will be enough for riders to distance one another. The final descent is fairly technical until 3km to go, so hopefully any attack (uphill of downhill) will stick.
What do you think? Will a stage like this (if it's the final mountain stage and the following stage is flat) see real action between the main contenders? Do you think it's logistically realistic to have in the Tour?
Turini:
Menton: