The passage through the sand will definitely be the decisive part of the race. The more I look at the course and see the pros ride it and hear the analysts talk about it the more I’m leaning towards Wout.
The technical sections aren’t technical enough to play to Mathieu’s strengths while the power section, at least from what I’ve seen and heard, seems to play to Wout’s strengths. Especially if they, at some point, have to dismount and run.
The difference is that one mistake in the sand section can make you lose a lot more than a mistake in the “technical” section.
Wout is a better runner and a better sustained power rider imo. I do think Mathieu is the better sand rider (won 11 of the last 13 sandy courses where WvA was also racing) and of course better technically, but this isn’t really comparable to Koksijde where it’s easier to choose a line and rely on technique, this is more straight plowing through the sand it seems.
If they are both in top form than these differences in ability are less visible and it might just come down to one mistake.
My predictions:
- WvA
- MvDP
- Piddy (I think his whole season has been geared towards the worlds and he’s eager to prove he’s true challenger to the big 2)
With that being said I wouldn’t be surprised if Mathieu won either if he’s in top shape and has a clear head. As far as the 3rd spot goes, it has many many challengers. Could be anyone of MvT, Eli, Sweeck, Piddy, Aerts and even Lars.
Ideal scenario would be Wout and Mathieu battling it out in an action-packed edition and a sprint deciding the winner.