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Remco Evenepoel

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it is actually a very interesting question how it is possible for Evenepoel to beat Ganna in a largely flat ITT.

a very ballpark estimate suggests that Evenepoel would have to produce about 10% more W/kg to do that

how realistic is that, I do not know.
Do we know how slippery Evenepoel is compared to Ganna? Because even Ganna has recognized Evenepoel's aerodynamics as an issue he'll need to address.

W/Kg is not the metric of concern in a mostly flat TT
 
Do we know how slippery Evenepoel is compared to Ganna? Because even Ganna has recognized Evenepoel's aerodynamics as an issue he'll need to address.

W/Kg is not the metric of concern in a mostly flat TT

Well, based on

Ganna being a bigger guy and thus less aerodynamic and having to produce more watts gross

and Evenepoel being smaller and more aerodynamic, but still having to produce a lot of power despite that to be this good in ITTs

I was merely interested in ballparking how much better Evenepoel would have to be in relative terms to do what he does
 
Well, based on

Ganna being a bigger guy and thus less aerodynamic and having to produce more watts gross

and Evenepoel being smaller and more aerodynamic, but still having to produce a lot of power despite that to be this good in ITTs

I was merely interested in ballparking how much better Evenepoel would have to be in relative terms to do what he does
Hard to say. I do not doubt he has a better CdA than Ganna, but who knows how much better? And, he's a small guy and he climb mountains, so I would not be surprised if his W/Kg for longer efforts is better. Absolute wattage would be worse, and repeated short efforts would likely be worse.
 
Super generically, CdA should be roughly linear with height, so if we take rolling resistance out we can just focus on the fact that Ganna is roughly 13% taller while being ~30% heavier and you end up with ~15% different W/kg.

That's if you assume they have the exact same body shape, and I'm pretty sure Evenepoels body shape is much more aero than Ganna, so I'd assume his CdA is lower than 0.87 * Ganna's CdA
 
That's if you assume they have the exact same body shape, and I'm pretty sure Evenepoels body shape is much more aero than Ganna, so I'd assume his CdA is lower than 0.87 * Ganna's CdA

I think this is a common area of confusion.

Remco has lower frontal area but Ganna has better aero shape / position because he is taller. Longer, flatter back = less drag. Just looking at these two side by side seems obvious that Ganna has a more aero profile. Remco closes the gap by having lower frontal area because he is much shorter (lower).


Two riders with the same size, shape and surface texture, the rider with the lower frontal area will have the lowest drag and require less watts to maintain the same speed.
 
I think this is a common area of confusion.

Remco has lower frontal area but Ganna has better aero shape / position because he is taller. Longer, flatter back = less drag. Just looking at these two side by side seems obvious that Ganna has a more aero profile. Remco closes the gap by having lower frontal area because he is much shorter (lower).


Two riders with the same size, shape and surface texture, the rider with the lower frontal area will have the lowest drag and require less watts to maintain the same speed.
Ganna seems to think Remco has some superior aero
 
Belgians seeing Vingegaard in the Tour this year: "Impossible, nobody can gain that much time from being aerodynamically perfect."

Belgians right now: "Well actually, Remco just has superhuman skin that's more aerodynamic than unbelievably expensive speedsuits!"

This is a 63 kg guy smashing wattage monsters like Ganna and Küng on the flats (see Giro stage 1 for reference) and somehow people are less inclined to question that than they are to question Vingegaard smashing a time trial with 600 vertical meters? The double standards.
Remco had been doing that since he was 19. or don't you remember him finishing 2nd at the WC TT in 2019 beating Ganna by 46(?) seconds. He then beat Ganna by 32 seconds at San Juan in 2020 over a much shorter course. Then he crashes, has sub par 2021 and then gets back to his top ITT level.

Going into this race he had 3 WC ITT medals so it's not like he was some decent TTers who somehow magically won a difficult time trial out of the blue.

He also beat Ganna by 12 seconds not 2 minutes.
 
Remco has lower frontal area but Ganna has better aero shape / position because he is taller. Longer, flatter back = less drag. Just looking at these two side by side seems obvious that Ganna has a more aero profile. Remco closes the gap by having lower frontal area because he is much shorter (lower).

That link is just a very basic explanation of CdA and doesn't back up your argument.
 
A flat TT is entirely about watts per cda, nothing else really comes into it, technical ability aside. What often makes the difference is a rider can equal another riders watts per cda but not for the entire distance of a TT, so they have to compromise cda in order to e.g. open arms a bit to breath, or move position out of the optimal cda to get their watts, or pain means cda has to be compromised. Remco is one of those rare riders a little like Bingham who can maintain an optimal cda for a long time, I've heard several riders say Remco has a very low usable cda. Wind tunnel cda is entirely different, any rider can get low cda but not maintain it with watts required.
 
Let's not get too excited. Watts/m2 is just as important in a TT setup as are watts/kg while climbing.

While I think Evenepoel's exceptional aero-ness has been rendered a discursive weapon that stretches the objective foundations of his admittedly good position on both bike types too much, this type of thinking has a grounding in reality nonetheless.
 
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This would make a lot more sense if it was actually true. But it isn't. His legs aren't hanging anywhere when he's on the TT bike.
err. no.
View: https://youtu.be/Uk9KXpe06Ts?t=253


And he tried really hard to say you are wrong, right here:
View: https://youtu.be/Uk9KXpe06Ts?t=268


He isn't very aero, seen frontally:
View: https://youtu.be/yfAdNlxgz7w?t=9


But anyways, don't take it from me then, take it from Mathias Norsgaard who touched upon it during today's broadcast on Danish TV. Norsgaard is a true TT nerd and he was in awe of Vingegaard's position on the TT bike. If you're genuinely going to claim to know more about it than Norsgaard, then go ahead, that's your right. I know whose opinion I value more.
Norsgaard isn't very aero (gap between helmet and shoulders = turbulence region, elbows too low (should be higher so he can tuck his head in between his arms,...), so I don't value his opinion.

Ah, yes. It's a lot more believable that a guy who started cycling at 17 is doing this. Got it. That's logical.
He did some other sports, at high level. Roglic must be doped as well, by that logic. Or any guy that did any other sport before cycling.
By the way, Vingegaard finished 7th on a completely flat time trial four years ago, seven seconds slower than Mikkel Bjerg, beating out specialists like Lasse Norman Leth, with his incredible track pedigree, and Matthias Brändle. There's nothing "sudden" about Vingegaard's time trial improvements.
Are you referring to this flat 17K TT?


If so: Vingegaard didn't even beat Brent Van Moer. First 5 were Danes. Even though those Danes are good at TT, I wouldn't say this was a stacked field. He did probably approx 380-400 W for 20 minutes.
To give some perspective, for 2.5 times that distance, the riders finishing at 2-3 minutes of Evenepoel did around 380-400 W for 55 minutes.

So no, Vingegaard is not all of a sudden improving his TT, but this flat TT (with a very good 6.5W/kg, estimated at 400W for 60kg) doesn't prove much with regards to his flat TT pedigree, because you inevitably have guys who can push 20-30 W more with the same CdA.

All we now for now is, that he is a very good W/kg TT, and the more meters altitude, the better he performs, e.g. this TT:
https://www.strava.com/activities/5553726277/ (27K, 322m altitude)
https://www.strava.com/activities/7515848322/ (41K, 389m altitude)
https://www.strava.com/activities/9475547371 (22K, 644m altitude)

So in short: Vingegaard is a very good TT, but he obviously benefits greatly from the last 3 Tours only having TT that have quite some altitude meters in the profile (this enables him to compensate his lowere W/CdA with higher W/kg on the hilly parts). We still have to see what he is really worth in a pan flat TT. Most likely, he will get punished mainly by his power to CdA ratio (with a slightly lower absolute power compared to e.g. Evenepoel is what I think, and a (for sure) higher CdA than e.g. Evenepoel: While I do believe his CdA is fairly optimised, it's definitely not up there with the best. ).

But who knows, he can suprise.
 
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err. no.
View: https://youtu.be/Uk9KXpe06Ts?t=253


And he tried really hard to say you are wrong, right here:
View: https://youtu.be/Uk9KXpe06Ts?t=268


He isn't very aero, seen frontally:
View: https://youtu.be/yfAdNlxgz7w?t=9



Norsgaard isn't very aero (gap between helmet and shoulders = turbulence region, elbows too low (should be higher so he can tuck his head in between his arms,...), so I don't value his opinion.


He did some other sports, at high level. Roglic must be doped as well, by that logic. Or any guy that did any other sport before cycling.

Are you referring to this flat 17K TT?


If so: Vingegaard didn't even beat Brent Van Moer. First 5 were Danes. Even though those Danes are good at TT, I wouldn't say this was a stacked field. He did probably approx 380-400 W for 20 minutes.
To give some perspective, for 2.5 times that distance, the riders finishing at 2-3 minutes of Evenepoel did around 380-400 W for 55 minutes.

So no, Vingegaard is not all of a sudden improving his TT, but this flat TT (with a very good 6.5W/kg, estimated at 400W for 60kg) doesn't prove much with regards to his flat TT pedigree, because you inevitably have guys who can push 20-30 W more with the same CdA.

All we now for now is, that he is a very good W/kg TT, and the more meters altitude, the better he performs, e.g. this TT:
https://www.strava.com/activities/5553726277/ (27K, 322m altitude)
https://www.strava.com/activities/7515848322/ (41K, 389m altitude)
https://www.strava.com/activities/9475547371 (22K, 644m altitude)

So in short: Vingegaard is a very good TT, but he obviously benefits greatly from the last 3 Tours only having TT that have quite some altitude meters in the profile (this enables him to compensate his lowere W/CdA with higher W/kg on the hilly parts). We still have to see what he is really worth in a pan flat TT. Most likely, he will get punished mainly by his power to CdA ratio (with a slightly lower absolute power compared to e.g. Evenepoel is what I think, and a (for sure) higher CdA than e.g. Evenepoel: While I do believe his CdA is fairly optimised, it's definitely not up there with the best. ).

But who knows, he can suprise.

Jonas vingegaard Cda is up with the best, read this.
 

Jonas vingegaard Cda is up with the best, read this.
If your link says "Remco Evenpoel’s CdA is perhaps similar to Vingegaard’s"
without giving any numbers, I honestly don't see anything backing up that claim.
Evenepoel has around 390W for 38 minutes (as from his Algarve TT which he accidentally posted on strava before he erased the power data). That's in line (or better) than Vingegaard's TT in Tour of Denmark (ofcourse that one is from 4 years ago, Vingegaard's power numbers will since have increased).

The link mainly says, and it confirms my statements, that Vingegaard is holding power in the TT position (better than most) and this is his biggest strength.
His absolute CdA won't be as low as the best (= Evenepoel), but his power while in his comfortable-lowest CdA position is not much reduced compared to his road bike position, and that's his biggest advantage.
Combine this with (ss said in the link) Vingegaard doing the flats at 380W, while he probably did the climbs around 450W, he didn't lose time on the flats compared to riders who had to save for the climbs, while he used his W/kg advantage fully on the climbs.

I reckon Vingegaard has, in a flat TT, around 5-10W less power than e.g. Evenepoel, and a worse CdA (maybe not by much but still, worse). So in a flat TT, Evenepoel should win. All is different in a hilly TT, as Evenepoel weighs 2-3kgs more, and those kilos matter. If Evenepoel gets close to losing 2-3kgs, I think Evenepoel loses some watts as well, so the hillier, the more it benefits Vingegaard (who is technically also superior, so if a downhill is involved, Vingegaard gains more time).

But so no, I don't think Vingegaards'CdA is up with the best (= Evenepoel). But Evenepoel is an exception. Vingegaards CdA is probably up with the top 10 of CdA, yes.

ps: the latter part of the link is a lot of rubbish, with regards to Pogacar's bike change. They aren't even considering the fact that Pogacar could have felt pain while in the TT position due to his wrist, and they are trying to argue Jumbo is so much more professional as they didn't do a bike change, while it was clear almost no one did a bike change (so actually, everyone is hyperprofessional by their arguments), and while Cote de Domancy is a 21-22K/hr affair (so they should tell me how all the marginal aero gains created such a big gap at those speeds). Not many riders did a bike change, first of all because it's a lot of hassle and not many riders have anything at stake, either in GC (only first 10-15) or for the stage (it was very clear only 2 riders were favourites for the stage), so the fact not many changed, doesn't say much. What really says it all is the average speed in the last 5.5K, which was a meagre 23.2km/hr for WvA with a max. of 26K/hr, so only 1-2K more for Vingegaard / Pogacar and thus around 25K/hr, a speed for which those aero benefits hardly matter at all. What matters is that those are 400m of altitude at 7.1% average. And that's why e.g. WvA was destined to lose time on that part, even if he would be pushing higher watts, or even if he would have been more aero.

While marginal gains are gains, they are still marginal (like aero-ness in a hilly Combloux TT ridden with an average of <40K/hr).
By the logic of the link, Pogacar is a total aero *** but let them explain why he won this TT and took 27s on Vingegaard at 51K/hr average (a speed where aero matters much more than in the Combloux TT):
I'll tell you: Pogacar had better legs, and the TT wasn't as technical and hilly as the one in Combloux.

All the aero talk with regards to the Combloux TT is just... marginal.
 
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Evenepoel weighs 2-3kgs more
Is this just based on the eyeball test, or is there some way of actually knowing these guys' weight? I don't even know my own weight until I step on the scale in the morning. I consider weight to be a closely guarded secret (if power is) and all the numbers they throw at the press corps are just part of whatever narrative they intend to spin that day.
 
Is this just based on the eyeball test, or is there some way of actually knowing these guys' weight? I don't even know my own weight until I step on the scale in the morning. I consider weight to be a closely guarded secret (if power is) and all the numbers they throw at the press corps are just part of whatever narrative they intend to spin that day.
Today he said in an interview:
“I have had to lose some weight in the last 10 days, but it all worked out well.”

My source of info before he said so himself: people close to him.
 
Just believe what you want, I’m not going to share first-hand info anymore, that will be more convenient to give everybody’s phantasies in this alternative world some rights to exist and develop…. ;-)
I would love to believe the Internet and all of its anonymous commenters are full of true facts only. Unfortunately that Nigerian prince with whom I was enjoying a pleasant correspondence taught me a costly lesson in misplaced credibility. But don't let me interrupt your quest to be the Edward Snowden of Team Remco. It's important to have dreams.