Renshaws non selection in Worlds Team?

[hrotha]

Yeah, like he won in Milan-San Remo, Amstel Gold Race, Paris-Roubaix, Liége-Bastogne-Liége right?

Sagan can't handle the length yet, it's painfully obvious.

He got pretty far in MSR and he was unlucky in PR when he was doing well. Six months and a GT later, I wouldn't be surprised if Sagan could handle the length just fine at the WC.

 

[sublimit]

He hasn't many teamates unless he hangs onto leaky riders? Probably has a reasonable chance though.

 

[El Pistolero]

He got pretty far in MSR and he was unlucky in PR when he was doing well. Six months and a GT later, I wouldn't be surprised if Sagan could handle the length just fine at the WC.

17th while more than half of the peloton was already out of the race at the beginning is not really any indication for anything. In the future I'm sure he'll be a top contender, but know? Even in the Vuelta when the big boys really went for it Sagan was nowhere to be found.

He won 2 flat stages against the worst sprinters ever and a hilly stage thanks to his excellent descending(and that of his teammates). I'd be surprised if he could already handle the distance and then outsprint people like Cavendish.

 

[Sydney21]

The course is not flat, it has over 1700m of climbing. That is usually enough to make sprinters complain on a 180km GT stage, this is a 260km WCRR.

...

Whoever is running last man for a sprinter, needs to be strong enough to hold early goers like Gilbert within a reasonable distance, as the genuine sprinters will need to hold their effort until the very end. The leadout will be much more about strength than it is positioning.

As Sydney mentioned Sutton was able to hold his nerve on a similar finish in his Vuelta win so he fits in this role too. If Renshaw was there he would be better used as the 2nd last man, guiding them around the corner and then letting the strong one drag the sprinter up the straight. If Gerrans has saved his legs he would be suitable for that, but on the form of others he may be sprinting himself.

Australia is no chance unless Goss or Haussler make a miraculous turnaround in form.

How steep is the kick in the last km exactly? I think although Haussler didn't figure in the finals of Vuelta stages, he is worth picking largely because of the classic style nature of WC races. He has never really been much of a fan of big group sprints anyway but he is proven over the longer distances. He is trying to peak for the WC's so we will have to wait and see whether the first post injury GT can give him some pre-injury legs again. Certainly a good back up option if somthing happens to Gossy IMO.

Ferminal I'd think Stuey or Cooky would perhaps be the better man to lead out Gossy and rather Gerro go with the late attacks. Stuey has shown he can do a massive turn in the Vuelta at the back end of the final 10km.

 

[Ferminal]

How steep is the kick in the last km exactly? I think although Haussler didn't figure in the finals of Vuelta stages, he is worth picking largely because of the classic style nature of WC races. He has never really been much of a fan of big group sprints anyway but he is proven over the longer distances. He is trying to peak for the WC's so we will have to wait and see whether the first post injury GT can give him some pre-injury legs again. Certainly a good back up option if somthing happens to Gossy IMO.

Ferminal I'd think Stuey or Cooky would perhaps be the better man to lead out Gossy and rather Gerro go with the late attacks. Stuey has shown he can do a massive turn in the Vuelta at the back end of the final 10km.

I originally had O'Grady written in there as the man most likely to do that job, has the best form of anyone! The finish is either 500m @ 4%, 400m @ 5%, or 300-350m at 6.5-7% depending on what you look at.

 

[Red Ace]

The course is not flat, it has over 1700m of climbing. That is usually enough to make sprinters complain on a 180km GT stage, this is a 260km WCRR.

Team GB will not be in the top5 strongest in the race, they will also want to make it as easy as possible. The Dutch and Belgian teams will want to make it as hard as possible, Spain too. Italy and Australia will want things somewhere in the middle.

Whoever is running last man for a sprinter, needs to be strong enough to hold early goers like Gilbert within a reasonable distance, as the genuine sprinters will need to hold their effort until the very end. The leadout will be much more about strength than it is positioning.

As Sydney mentioned Sutton was able to hold his nerve on a similar finish in his Vuelta win so he fits in this role too. If Renshaw was there he would be better used as the 2nd last man, guiding them around the corner and then letting the strong one drag the sprinter up the straight. If Gerrans has saved his legs he would be suitable for that, but on the form of others he may be sprinting himself. .

We are certainly looking at this course differently, but that just different options I guess. Britain certainly is in my top 5 teams on this year’s course. Plus I think to pick on just results is naive, for example Mark Renshaw doesn’t even go for a placing at the end of the race.
Anyway.. to explain further say I am not necessarily saying to get rid of CJ, Goss, Haussler.. I am big fan, its just that given Australian has announced Gossy is the team leader, there has to be room for Mark Renshaw in that strategy.
It is the dynamics of a group on the road, and who is in control, Renshaws presence will have an effect, and will causes uncertainly, and therefore gives a team more options on this course. But I guess you can’t see what I am saying..
By the way I would like to be a fly on the wall while you are telling Gerro that he is doing Gossy’s final lead-out coming off Mark Renshaw.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Anyway.. to explain further say I am not necessarily saying to get rid of CJ, Goss, Haussler.. I am big fan, its just that given Australian has announced Gossy is the team leader, there has to be room for Mark Renshaw in that strategy.

You've summed it up exactly. If your strategy is to win with a sprinter, then taking the best lead out man in the world is a no-brainer.

 

[Winterfold]

You've summed it up exactly. If your strategy is to win with a sprinter, then taking the best lead out man in the world is a no-brainer.

As I said earlier, on behalf of GB cycling fans...

 

[just some guy]

You've summed it up exactly. If your strategy is to win with a sprinter, then taking the best lead out man in the world is a no-brainer.

Unless he is seen as a none team player -which would be weird since his job for the last few years was to lead out Cav, So it must be that while he is the best lead out guy if he is not in the front pack at the end who cares if he is a lead out guy or not.

The Worlds average km/h in the right condition could be one of the fastest 1 days race over 200 ever - Australia, Belgium and Italy will want to drop Cav it will be on from Km 1

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

The course is not flat, it has over 1700m of climbing. That is usually enough to make sprinters complain on a 180km GT stage, this is a 260km WCRR.

Regardless of the merits of whatever else you wrote, I hope you realise that 1700m of climbing over 260km is easier than over 180km, from a pure, avoiding climbing perspective.

 

[michaeld]

I originally had O'Grady written in there as the man most likely to do that job, has the best form of anyone! The finish is either 500m @ 4%, 400m @ 5%, or 300-350m at 6.5-7% depending on what you look at.

They can all stay at home and give it to Gilbert.

 

[Four Winds]

Goss did win MSR with no leadout.

While I'm sorry for Mark the only reason to pick him would be a massive bunch gallop to the line and the more I hear the less likely this is sounding.

 

[Andy99]

Is Kevin Tabotta involved in Greenedge as well as the national squad?

Similar kind of role to Shane Sutton at sky/gb?

 

[hrotha]

Goss did win MSR with no leadout.

While I'm sorry for Mark the only reason to pick him would be a massive bunch gallop to the line and the more I hear the less likely this is sounding.

Yeah but MSR was decided in a small group finish. In theory we're in for a bunch sprint here.

 

[Tuarts]

Australia is too cool to have their team selection discussed in the main thread.

+1

 

[bobbins]

Is Kevin Tabotta involved in Greenedge as well as the national squad?

Similar kind of role to Shane Sutton at sky/gb?

Shane Sutton is the head coach for Sky and the track coach for GB. Road and track seasons don't clash much.

Dave B is the performance director for BC and 'owner' of Sky.

A conflict will happen when he has to pick on form riders riding for teams not called Sky and maybe have them win a worlds / olympics and have the title outside of the 'company'. Maybe this happened with Aus / greenedge.

But there's no conflict of interest at Sky, not even having Cavs manager as Dave Bs project manager

 

[Andy99]

But there's no conflict of interest at Sky, not even having Cavs manager as Dave Bs project manager

Quite. Miss Millar.

 

[PCutter]

Yeah but MSR was decided in a small group finish. In theory we're in for a bunch sprint here.

Whilst there may be a sprint at the end of the WC's it won't be a big bunch sprint with a GT sprint stage style lead out.

As Ferminal pointed out, this is a WC's and a long course which will be tough (as teams will be looking to not finish with Cav in the group), and likely be in bad weather. No-one will win by having a lead-out man peal off with 250m to go. Some sprinters may have another rider to position them in the final 500-1000m, but it won't be a lead-out. A group finish looking not too different from Geelong is more likely - though maybe a slightly larger pack. So, if Renshaw's sole job would be to lead out and peal off, then probably correct not to select him.

 

[daveinzambia]

Just think it is a case of options. if you want to cover the bunch sprint scenario then you need to include Renshaw. they have other options available for smaller sprints, long breakaways and late bursts. I would personally have put in Renshaw instead of Haussler or Sutton and that way covered that final larger bunch sprint option.

Gerrans is there on form i think. not ideal for him but he is going so well why not have a go.

much as I would love to see Cav win think there are too many strong teams that do not want a bunch sprint and as a result a group of riders will get clear towards the end

 

[NickBVK]

Some people are relying on GB controlling the race all day, what if they pop someone in the break then they're entitled not to chase, who will pick it up?

I don't think Gerrans should be part of the leadout, should have a free role to attack on the final couple of laps on the incline to mix it up

 

[El Pistolero]

Some people are relying on GB controlling the race all day, what if they pop someone in the break then they're entitled not to chase, who will pick it up?

I don't think Gerrans should be part of the leadout, should have a free role to attack on the final couple of laps on the incline to mix it up

Belgium and Italy want to make the race very hard together.

 

[sadfitty]

Regardless of the merits of whatever else you wrote, I hope you realise that 1700m of climbing over 260km is easier than over 180km, from a pure, avoiding climbing perspective.

Why does everybody talk about the worlds as a 260 km race?? It's 280 km this year, that's loooong no matter how you look at it...

 

[Tricky Dicky]

As a GB fan, it depresses me to say it but I agree with daveinzambia about Cav's chances. I could be wrong but, other than MSR 2009, I can't think of any other major one day race of any significant distance where Cav has survived to the finish. His survival that day was a big surprise and he didn't have the profile then that he does now. His other major wins have really come in stage races where the top one day racers and teams don't lay it all one the line for that one day. I just can't see Cav surviving and, even if he does, from the video of the course, that uphill finish is too tough - he'll be out-muscled. So to stay on topic, as others have said, if Cav can't survive, query whether Renshaw would either.

Goss is a different kind of rider to Cav. He has the power to go with the bursts near the end and duke it out with the classics riders (see MSR 2011). Cav doesn't (see Cwlth Games race).

 

[AussieGoddess]

well the more we discuss it, the more excited I am getting about Gilbert's chances of wearing rainbow next year

I dont think it matters whether Renshaw is in or not .... Goss isnt going to win it against Super-Phil.

Cancellara would have to be considered a chance too though ... and Thor.

 

[Tuarts]

Cav has no classics form? Winning MSR and Scheldeprijs twice don't count then...