Riders to reach 100 pro wins

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Kristoff said in a interview with a local newspaper that he+s 90% sure that next season will be his last, and that reaching 100 was the big goal. He should have good chances taking one or two more in this race, so it does look pretty good for him.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pogacar is on a furious pace: 23 wins this year and 86 wins in total. He should get there next year.
At the start of the season he was 17 wins behind Rogla (who himself is a profilic winner) and now he's barely behind! Sick.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar is on a furious pace: 23 wins this year and 86 wins in total. He should get there next year.
At the start of the season he was 17 wins behind Rogla (who himself is a profilic winner) and now he's barely behind! Sick.

And all WT wins. If we count just WT wins, Pogacar is probably 25 WT wins ahead everybody else.

 

[Netserk]

Rider	Age (Dec 31)	Run of wins (3 seasons)	Wins	Est. chance (%)
DÉMARE Arnaud	33	7-4-2	97	70
KRISTOFF Alexander	37	5-2-7	95	85
VIVIANI Elia	35	2-2-0	89	1
ROGLIČ Primož	35	5-15-8	88	80
POGAČAR Tadej	26	16-17-23	86	>99
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald	37	0-0-0	81	0
GROENEWEGEN Dylan	31	7-6-5	74	10
BENNETT Sam	34	3-3-5	67	0
EWAN Caleb	30	7-1-3	63	0
EVENEPOEL Remco	24	15-13-9	59	95
COQUARD Bryan	32	3-3-1	52	0
GAVIRIA Fernando	30	3-2-1	52	0
QUINTANA Nairo	34	4-0-0	51	0
VAN DER POEL Mathieu	29	5-6-4	50	1
MARECZKO Jakub	30	3-1-2	50	0
MERLIER Tim	32	5-11-16	50	15
PHILIPSEN Jasper	26	9-19-8	50	75
VAN AERT Wout	30	9-5-5	49	2

 

[Krzysztof_O]

@Netserk What was the algorithm to calculate est. changes? Or was it taken from some source? I suppose last 3 seasons tally and age were important parameters.

 

[Netserk]

@Netserk What was the algorithm to calculate est. changes? Or was it taken from some source?

Source: my left big toe

 

[tobydawq]

Source: my left big toe

It sounds like it's quite knowledgeable regarding cycling and probabilities.

 

[Netserk]

Riders next in line more likely to reach 100 wins than Van Aert:

Mads Pedersen (46)
Olav Kooij (36)
Jonas Vingegaard (36)
Arnaud De Lie (25)
Jonathan Milan (16)

 

[Netserk]

So my ranking of most likely to reach 100 is something like this:

1. Pogi
2. Evenepoel
3. Kristoff
4. Rogla
5. Philipsen
6. Démare
7. Milan
8. Kooij
9. De Lie
10. Pedersen
11. Merlier
12. Vingegaard
13. Groenewegen
14. Van Aert

 

[RedheadDane]

BOASSON HAGEN Edvald

37

0-0-0

81

0

Are you - or rather your left big toe - only looking at the fact that he hasn't got a single win the last three years, or also factoring in the fact that he's retiring at the end of the season, so even if he'd been on 99 wins, and had had multiple wins over the last three years, the estimated chance would still be 0%?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Are you - or rather your left big toe - only looking at the fact that he hasn't got a single win the last three years, or also factoring in the fact that he's retiring at the end of the season, so even if he'd been on 99 wins, and had had multiple wins over the last three years, the estimated chance would still be 0%?

If he had been a prolific winner and had 99 wins, he‘d have a good shot at Paris Tours and wouldn‘t be at 0

 

[RedheadDane]

If he had been a prolific winner and had 99 wins, he‘d have a good shot at Paris Tours and wouldn‘t be at 0

Then if he was at 98 wins.

 

[Netserk]

Then if he was at 98 wins.

Never rule out a comeback.

 

[wirral]

How did Mareczko get to 50 wins? Remarkable.

Ha! I just checked. He has no WT wins, not a single one. Fantastic. The ultimate minesweeper. Love it.

 

[tobydawq]

So my ranking of most likely to reach 100 is something like this:

1. Pogi
2. Evenepoel
3. Kristoff
4. Rogla
5. Philipsen
6. Démare
7. Milan
8. Kooij
9. De Lie
10. Pedersen
11. Merlier
12. Vingegaard
13. Groenewegen
14. Van Aert

I'd put Démare third. He is so close and rides weak races to get there so he must do it eventually. Otherwise, I think I quite agree with your list.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I don't see Demare has twice as likely to fail as Kristoff: I think the battle between those two, with each other and with time, will be a good one. I look forward to them going head to head in a race where they are both on 99.

However, it's possible that I would conclude Kristoff much more likely than Demare by the end of the week.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Jez Cox has just opined that Philipsen is destined to reach 100 (got to 51 today)

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Jez Cox has just opined that Philipsen is destined to reach 100 (got to 51 today)

Well, that's the end of his chances.

 

[Netserk]

Jez Cox has just opined that Philipsen is destined to reach 100 (got to 51 today)

All the experts think he is more likely to do so than Démare is!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So my ranking of most likely to reach 100 is something like this:

1. Pogi
2. Evenepoel
3. Kristoff
4. Rogla
5. Philipsen
6. Démare
7. Milan
8. Kooij
9. De Lie
10. Pedersen
11. Merlier
12. Vingegaard
13. Groenewegen
14. Van Aert

What does your toe think about Nys? Personally, i don't think he'll manage 100 wins in his career, but given his age still more likely than the bottom 3 of this list.

 

[RedheadDane]

Are CX wins included in this?

 

[Berniece]

Are CX wins included in this?

No, MVDP and WVA haven’t reached it yet

 

[Peyroteo94]

The ultimate question is: Can Demare or Kristoff win 100 earluer than Pogacar?

 

[Berniece]

The ultimate question is: Can Demare or Kristoff win 100 earluer than Pogacar?

Does it matter who is first? Isn't it about reaching 100, and in case of Pogacar how far can he reach?

 

[tobydawq]

And who will be closest by the end of this season? Roglic or Pogacar?