Riders to reach 100 pro wins

[Netserk]

@Netserk What was the algorithm to calculate est. changes? Or was it taken from some source?

Source: my left big toe

 

[tobydawq]

Source: my left big toe

It sounds like it's quite knowledgeable regarding cycling and probabilities.

 

[Netserk]

Riders next in line more likely to reach 100 wins than Van Aert:

Mads Pedersen (46)
Olav Kooij (36)
Jonas Vingegaard (36)
Arnaud De Lie (25)
Jonathan Milan (16)

 

[Netserk]

So my ranking of most likely to reach 100 is something like this:

1. Pogi
2. Evenepoel
3. Kristoff
4. Rogla
5. Philipsen
6. Démare
7. Milan
8. Kooij
9. De Lie
10. Pedersen
11. Merlier
12. Vingegaard
13. Groenewegen
14. Van Aert

 

[RedheadDane]

BOASSON HAGEN Edvald

37

0-0-0

81

0

Are you - or rather your left big toe - only looking at the fact that he hasn't got a single win the last three years, or also factoring in the fact that he's retiring at the end of the season, so even if he'd been on 99 wins, and had had multiple wins over the last three years, the estimated chance would still be 0%?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Are you - or rather your left big toe - only looking at the fact that he hasn't got a single win the last three years, or also factoring in the fact that he's retiring at the end of the season, so even if he'd been on 99 wins, and had had multiple wins over the last three years, the estimated chance would still be 0%?

If he had been a prolific winner and had 99 wins, he‘d have a good shot at Paris Tours and wouldn‘t be at 0

 

[RedheadDane]

If he had been a prolific winner and had 99 wins, he‘d have a good shot at Paris Tours and wouldn‘t be at 0

Then if he was at 98 wins.

 

[Netserk]

Then if he was at 98 wins.

Never rule out a comeback.

 

[wirral]

How did Mareczko get to 50 wins? Remarkable.

Ha! I just checked. He has no WT wins, not a single one. Fantastic. The ultimate minesweeper. Love it.

 

[tobydawq]

So my ranking of most likely to reach 100 is something like this:

1. Pogi
2. Evenepoel
3. Kristoff
4. Rogla
5. Philipsen
6. Démare
7. Milan
8. Kooij
9. De Lie
10. Pedersen
11. Merlier
12. Vingegaard
13. Groenewegen
14. Van Aert

I'd put Démare third. He is so close and rides weak races to get there so he must do it eventually. Otherwise, I think I quite agree with your list.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I don't see Demare has twice as likely to fail as Kristoff: I think the battle between those two, with each other and with time, will be a good one. I look forward to them going head to head in a race where they are both on 99.

However, it's possible that I would conclude Kristoff much more likely than Demare by the end of the week.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Jez Cox has just opined that Philipsen is destined to reach 100 (got to 51 today)

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Jez Cox has just opined that Philipsen is destined to reach 100 (got to 51 today)

Well, that's the end of his chances.

 

[Netserk]

Jez Cox has just opined that Philipsen is destined to reach 100 (got to 51 today)

All the experts think he is more likely to do so than Démare is!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So my ranking of most likely to reach 100 is something like this:

1. Pogi
2. Evenepoel
3. Kristoff
4. Rogla
5. Philipsen
6. Démare
7. Milan
8. Kooij
9. De Lie
10. Pedersen
11. Merlier
12. Vingegaard
13. Groenewegen
14. Van Aert

What does your toe think about Nys? Personally, i don't think he'll manage 100 wins in his career, but given his age still more likely than the bottom 3 of this list.

 

[RedheadDane]

Are CX wins included in this?

 

[Berniece]

Are CX wins included in this?

No, MVDP and WVA haven’t reached it yet

 

[Peyroteo94]

The ultimate question is: Can Demare or Kristoff win 100 earluer than Pogacar?

 

[Berniece]

The ultimate question is: Can Demare or Kristoff win 100 earluer than Pogacar?

Does it matter who is first? Isn't it about reaching 100, and in case of Pogacar how far can he reach?

 

[tobydawq]

And who will be closest by the end of this season? Roglic or Pogacar?

 

[tobydawq]

It seems a bit wild that 2017 was the last time someone reached 100 wins - both Sagan and Valverde did it that season.

 

[Netserk]

What does your toe think about Nys? Personally, i don't think he'll manage 100 wins in his career, but given his age still more likely than the bottom 3 of this list.

I'd have to see more of him to put him there, for now I only have him above Van Aert.

I should probably elevate my estimation for both Groenewegen and Merlier by 5-10 points. I think Vingegaard will maintain the trajectory needed the next three years, the question for him is how long he can be dominant (against all but one). Over the 12 months before his crash this year, he won 18 times, so he's gaining ground quickly.

 

[Tanakka]

97 wins for Demare and only 20 are WT. Pogacar has more this season...
And we should count 19 after MSR's disgrace

And all WT wins. If we count just WT wins, Pogacar is probably 25 WT wins ahead everybody else.

Yeah, I'm not trying to be a party pooper but, nonetheless the # of wins is kind of a tricky thing when it comes to sports like Cycling or Tennis.

In MotoGP, F1 and such, a win is a win.
Now... winning Indianapolis in Indy or LeMans in the WEC is a bif ot a different story, but while winning Monaco or Spa in F1 might be cooler than doing so at, idk, Baku, at the end of the day they "weigh" kind of similar.
But in Tennis, when you play this game, you have to count both a 500 and a Slam tournament as worth 1 win.
And nobody seriously thinks that way.

Same here: MVDP sits at 50 wins, of which 6 are a Monument and 1 in a WC, though.
Viviani or Sam Bennet are ahead of him when it comes to # of wins, yet they don't have similar achievements.

 

[RedheadDane]

It seems a bit wild that 2017 was the last time someone reached 100 wins - both Sagan and Valverde did it that season.

Please update the opening post.

 

[tobydawq]

Please update the opening post.

Done.