Flamin said:
That's pretty optimistic for someone who will give the GC a go for the first time over 3 weeks and who is more a hilly kind of rider than a real climber. I'd say 8th or 9th at best.
This year if he hadn't been called back to help Valverde he would probably have ended ahead of Mollema (who unfortunately was on a downward trend the entire tour) and Fuglsang.
Just look at the last week.
Stage 16, Col de Manse:
2013:9,5 km@5,2%---19:06---average speed 29.84 km/h(Porte-Froome-Contador-Kreuziger-Valverde-Quintana-Rodriguez-Mollema)
---19:16---average speed 29.58 km/h(Rui Costa)
Costa did most of the climb solo unlike the favourites who had first Katusha and then Porto/Valverde/Froome/Kreuziger/Rodriguez all pushing it at some point besides the attacks from Contador and Kreuziger.
And then stage 19 after some very aggressive racing for the breakaway over the Glandon and Madeleine:
2013:11,3 km@7,1%---29:56---average speed 22.65 km/h(Rui Costa)
---30:49---average speed 22.00 km/h(Quintana-Rodriguez-Contador-Froome-Valverde-Gadret)
Obviously the favourites were saving themselves over the climb but at the top group only had 6 guys and neither Mollema nor Fuglsang were there. Kreuziguer would have been if it hadn't been setting tempo for much of the climb.
Then the next day Costa's dropped everyone cept those top guys and he, being him the guy that loves working for others that he is, clearly didn't give it all. just look at how relaxed he looks putting his sun glasses once Valverde attacks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=vY0CA-vtf7Y#t=896
So i don't think the 5th to 10th range i gave is all that far fetched. If he is lucky he could get 5/6th and in normal circumstances he will be around 7/8/9 imo.
Also let's not forget that Porte, Quintana and Purito will ride the giro. WE know that under normal circumstances Froome, Nibali, Contador and Valverde will be ahead of him. Who he will have to fight for those places will be guys like VdB2, Kreuziger, Mollema, Betancurt, Uran, Pinot and Talansky (i am obviously forgetting a few but you get the point).