Saturday, June 30 - Tour de France, Prologue: Liege - Liege, 6,4 km

[MrRoboto]

Virtually stopping after a near fall had something to do with it...

Yeah, because everyone else was going full speed through that 180 degree bend

 

[RHRH19861986]

Frank Schleck shows no sign of improved TT skills at all, and probably never will. The same for Andy.

Don´t understand that. They are tall and skinny, have good positioning on the bike, but don´t put out the power it takes.

When we see how even Rasmussen improved in the TT from the Tours in 2005 and 2006 to the one in 2007, one can hardly understand why the Schlecks can´t.

Andy is lucky to have been declared 2010´s winner. Otherwise, the Schlecks would´ve quit cycling one day without having won one GT. Who would´ve imagined that few years ago...

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Cheers mate, my maths is bad. Working it out though (and apologies for any mathematical errors here), he beat Evans by 1.26 in the Dauphine. So three times 1.26 is 4.18, then multiply that by 2.5 and we see that based on today's result Wiggins should beat Evans by 10.45 in the Tour. I know this system isn't flawless but that's a hell of a deficit for Evans to turn around by any standards.

All right, you are obviously a little knew to the sport, which is fine.

But those things really don't work the way you are trying to get a grasp on it. Don't let positivism eat your soul!

We really don't know much about form yet, all we know is that a lot of guys did good, Menchov did ****ing great, Wiggins did about as good as he wanted to. The prolog can be an indicator, but it doesn't have to be.
But in short: you really cannot at all compare performances in cycling like that, if you want to get any wisdom out of them.

 

[Arnout]

Seriously, differences of 5 or 10 seconds don't say anything about form. There are so many variables, those small differences are all marginal and will be cancelled out by fatigue / time of peak, etc. Nothing to read into it, let's move on.

 

[Andre.J]

I'm a little disappointed at VDB's ride today. I was hoping for a top 15 placement.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

By the way. As we are doing magics with numbers.
Someone in a German board pointed out the following.

In 2004 Andreas Klöden came in 19 seconds behind Fabian Cancellara in the prologue in Liege. He went on to finish on the podium in Paris, only beaten by Lance Armstrong.

This year, Andreas Klöden again cam in 19 seconds behind Fabian Cancellara in the prologue in Liege. Armstrong isn't competing anymore. Therefore Klöden will win the Tour de France.

 

[El Pistolero]

By the way. As we are doing magics with numbers.
Someone in a German board pointed out the following.

In 2004 Andreas Klöden came in 19 seconds behind Fabian Cancellara in the prologue in Liege. He went on to finish on the podium in Paris, only beaten by Lance Armstrong.

This year, Andreas Klöden again cam in 19 seconds behind Fabian Cancellara in the prologue in Liege. Armstrong isn't competing anymore. Therefore Klöden will win the Tour de France.

I'm pretty sure AK tweeted that

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I'm a little disappointed at VDB's ride today. I was hoping for a top 15 placement.

Yeah...because JvdB is a regular prologue specialist

 

[El Pistolero]

Yeah...because JvdB is a regular prologue specialist

Doesn't mean you can't hope for a top 15. I'm sure you have hope Gesink can win this Tour.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I'm pretty sure AK tweeted that

Did he? Well, I read it on a board. So I give credit to my source of course.

 

[El Pistolero]

Did he? Well, I read it on a board. So I give credit to my source of course.

Andreas Klöden ‏@andykloedi
not very good start, but a serious prolog for me. 2004 i lose also 19 sec. to Fabian. Could be a good Omen

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Seriously, differences of 5 or 10 seconds don't say anything about form. There are so many variables, those small differences are all marginal and will be cancelled out by fatigue / time of peak, etc. Nothing to read into it, let's move on.

For sure. But I'll just say I'm really disappointed in Samu's showing today, finishing at 145 and 40 seconds down. It's still early, but he is going to have a really hard time to make up the difference to Wigo (33 sec), Menchov (27 sec), and Cadel (23 sec). Samu's result almost puts him out of it. He will have to be on the offensive more than he may like from here on.

Well done by Wigo, Mench, & Cadel to hang right in there together. Their splits are meaningless.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Andreas Klöden ‏@andykloedi
not very good start, but a serious prolog for me. 2004 i lose also 19 sec. to Fabian. Could be a good Omen

I just checked when my source posted his insights though, and it turns out he was much faster than Klödi himself.

Thanks for posting the tweet btw.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Yeah, because everyone else was going full speed through that 180 degree bend

Yes, because he was slowing at a stage of the bend when he should have been accelerating, and because knowing that he had lost time he was unlikely to make the top 15 on the stage (and therefore no green jersey points), he had no benefit from pushing himself to the limits. GC seconds are not a concern to him.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Gilbert said he had the same feelings again as he had last year. We can only hope...

The signs appear favourable.
Be interesting to see if he rides to win tomorrow's home stage, or to set up Cadel to pinch a few GC seconds.
The Boulogne finish could also be "explosive".

 

[El Pistolero]

The signs appear favourable.
Be interesting to see if he rides to win tomorrow's home stage, or to set up Cadel to pinch a few GC seconds.
The Boulogne finish could also be "explosive".

I think the stage tomorrow is a bit too easy to pinch away a few GC seconds unless they start their sprint very early. I'm looking forward to Boulogne though.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Yes, because he was slowing at a stage of the bend when he should have been accelerating, and because knowing that he had lost time he was unlikely to make the top 15 on the stage (and therefore no green jersey points), he had no benefit from pushing himself to the limits. GC seconds are not a concern to him.

You know he was ordinary at the checkpoint, even before that, right?

Sagan can climb and descend in a prologue, but he is not a proper TTer at this stage and it was unreasonable to expect him to go well today.

 

[El Pistolero]

You know he was ordinary at the checkpoint, even before that, right?

Sagan can climb and descend in a prologue, but he is not a proper TTer at this stage and it was unreasonable to expect him to go well today.

Yes, I already had the feeling that the reason why he dominated in Cali and Suisse was because of the competition not being good enough(for several reasons like Cancellara's crash in the Ronde and Boonen still too afraid to take risks in races like that).

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

I think the stage tomorrow is a bit too easy to pinch away a few GC seconds unless they start their sprint very early. I'm looking forward to Boulogne though.

tomorrov it is pretty steep isnt it?

 

[Arnout]

For sure. But I'll just say I'm really disappointed in Samu's showing today, finishing at 145 and 40 seconds down. It's still early, but he is going to have a really hard time to make up the difference to Wigo (33 sec), Menchov (27 sec), and Cadel (23 sec). Samu's result almost puts him out of it. He will have to be on the offensive more than he may like from here on.

Well done by Wigo, Mench, & Cadel to hang right in there together. Their splits are meaningless.

Oh I'm not talking about Samu, it's clear he's not in great shape at the moment, but I expected it after the Dauphine and aftermatch. I've no worries, he will get better every stage, and when Evans is in good form he will not have a chance for victory in this year's Tour anyway.

I'm talking about the slight gaps, as you do in the second part of your post.

 

[Gubby Allen]

Some intriuging odds for tomorrow. Sag, Gilb, EBH & VV as expected top 4, but beyond that:

Evans & Simon 22/1
Goss 25
Friere 28 & Cavendish 28/1
LLSanschez 33/1
Rojas 40
Nibali 50
Chavanel 66
Petacchi & Greipel 150/1
Kittel 250/1

Bearing in mind this is E/W 1-4 are the bolded sprinters really in that order of capability for getting up over a hill?

Rob Hayles on Eurosport was talking up Griepel as the best of them if he could keep with Gilbert & Chavanel up the hill.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Oh I'm not talking about Samu, it's clear he's not in great shape at the moment, but I expected it after the Dauphine and aftermatch. I've no worries, he will get better every stage, and when Evans is in good form he will not have a chance for victory in this year's Tour anyway.

I'm talking about the slight gaps, as you do in the second part of your post.

True regarding Samu and the Dauphine etc. I hope you are right.

 

[theyoungest]

The signs appear favourable.
Be interesting to see if he rides to win tomorrow's home stage, or to set up Cadel to pinch a few GC seconds.
The Boulogne finish could also be "explosive".

Of course Gilbert will ride for the win tomorrow. The final hill was added at his request, it's his home crowd, remember?

 

[RedheadDane]

Horribly disappointing for him but... kinda funny!

69-David Zabriskie (USA) Garmin - Sharp

That's fixation with a number right there...

 

[The Hitch]

Oh I'm not talking about Samu, it's clear he's not in great shape at the moment, but I expected it after the Dauphine and aftermatch. I've no worries, he will get better every stage, and when Evans is in good form he will not have a chance for victory in this year's Tour anyway.

Evans is better, and would take time out of Samu in the tts, but he is not sufficiently better that Samu would not have a chance to contend for the Tour by attacking in the mountains or on the descents. Especially considering Evans may believe what he has been told about only having to worry about Wiggins and be content to give Samu a little rope.