State of Peloton 2023

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I have said this before but something happened around 2020, which offset the previous equilibrium regarding performance, enhancement and tactics.

The most overt consequence is that long-range attacking by key GC and classics contenders once again became not only viable (as it was in some cases in the 2010s) but almost the norm. In other words, level-differences in aerobic metabolic capacity were reintroduced into the peloton. And so it is once again possible to just ride away from the top tier contenders if the "big six" or whatever have that one bit of extra capacity.

During the 2010s this was not the case; the strongest riders still had to mostly concentrate their attacks on key climbs at the end of the stages or one day races. There were of course exceptions (think Cancellara and Boonen's raids; Schleck's attack, Froome in the Giro, etc). But I think the key is this: what was mythical and exceptional then is the expectation today.

The very high racing speeds and fast climb times partly confirm this paradigm shift IMHO.

At the same time, the rail-thin anorexic GC bois (think Wiggo & Froome in 2012-13) have almost disappeared. The current crop is not that borderline. Even Vingegaard is not that extreme if you ask me. You ask me, all this tinkering with weight was to gain advantages within the paradigm; watts were more or less non-enhancable, so the focus was on kilos and/or stamina/fatigue resistance (corticosteroids, for instance).

What is driving the change I have no clue. But the riders clearly metabolise more stuff aerobically, be it fats, carbs, ketone esters or whatever.

What was exposed during the Aderlass fallout is the last window into the practices. And that was good old fashioned blood doping, fairly low tech. But OTOH no heads of state were busted, so we really have only guesses.
Good post. The ability to do a solo attack against a motivated group, and you simply ride away and destroy them, means you are magnitudes better. Doing that, almost at will, especially day after day in stage races, is just crazy.
 
Didn't Vingegaard do like 6.7W/kg for the final 13 minutes of Hautacam last year or something absolutely stupid? This Tourmalet seems fairly in line with something like Hautacam especially if you consider the difference in fatigue and overall stage.
 
Didn't Vingegaard do like 6.7W/kg for the final 13 minutes of Hautacam last year or something absolutely stupid? This Tourmalet seems fairly in line with something like Hautacam especially if you consider the difference in fatigue and overall stage.
@ammattipyoraily

#TDF2022, Stage 18 HAUTACAM (last 4.48 km, 8.06 %, 361 m)Vingegaard: 11:54, 22.59 Kph, VAM 1820 m/h, 6.68 W/kg (est.)Pogacar: 12:58, 20.73 Kph, VAM 1670 m/h, 5.94 W/kg (est.)Pogacar was dropped 15 sec after start of segment. Mathematically, how 1:04 time gap happened.

10:12 pm · 21 Jul 2022


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ammattipyöräily

@ammattipyoraily

#TDF2022, Stage 18HAUTACAM (13.25 km, 8.03 %, 1064 m)Vingegaard: 36:34, 21.74 Kph, VAM 1746 m/h, 6.35 W/kg (est.)Pogacar: 37:38, 21.12 Kph, VAM 1696 m/h, 6.04 W/kg (est.)Those are results using est. actual weights. 'll be back tmrw, why think ests are 1-2 % too high.

1:04 am · 22 Jul 2022
 
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View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1550212076790026247


@ammattipyoraily

#TDF2022, Stage 18 HAUTACAM (last 4.48 km, 8.06 %, 361 m)Vingegaard: 11:54, 22.59 Kph, VAM 1820 m/h, 6.68 W/kg (est.)Pogacar: 12:58, 20.73 Kph, VAM 1670 m/h, 5.94 W/kg (est.)Pogacar was dropped 15 sec after start of segment. Mathematically, how 1:04 time gap happened.
Thanks.

They also did the first 25 minutes at 6.0 or something. IIRC Vingegaard also did 6.4 on the 2nd half of Granon at like 2100m average.

I dislike these split W/kg estimates because I think they're just isolating what type of performance would get the most clicks. Yes 2 minutes into the chasing group, but none of them apart from Hindley even tried to follow.
 
Thanks.

They also did the first 25 minutes at 6.0 or something. IIRC Vingegaard also did 6.4 on the 2nd half of Granon at like 2100m average.

I dislike these split W/kg estimates because I think they're just isolating what type of performance would get the most clicks. Yes 2 minutes into the chasing group, but none of them apart from Hindley even tried to follow.

Nobody denies that Granon and Hautacam (or Le Grand Bornand) were super-mutant as well but now two guys performed it at once so the spectacle is bigger!
 
At the same time, the rail-thin anorexic GC bois (think Wiggo & Froome in 2012-13) have almost disappeared. The current crop is not that borderline. Even Vingegaard is not that extreme if you ask me. You ask me, all this tinkering with weight was to gain advantages within the paradigm; watts were more or less non-enhancable, so the focus was on kilos and/or stamina/fatigue resistance (corticosteroids, for instance).
I think you're just observing that Wiggins and Froome were taller so they looked skinnier (and indeed had a lower BMI which is necessary to win at that height).
 
So roughly:

Hautacam: 24'40'' at 6.1 W/kg + 11'54'' at 6.68 W/kg = 36'34'' at 6.35 W/kg | (top at 1520 m)
Tourmalet*: 23'25'' at 5.8 W/kg + 13'27'' at 6.8 W/kg = 36'52'' at 6.17 W/kg | (top at 2115 m)
Granon: 20'36'' at 5.83 W/kg + 15'20'' at 6.34 W/kg = 35'56'' at 6.05 W/kg | (top at 2404 m)

*Based on the GPS times from Gripp and estimated with [Dr.F].
 
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I tried to extrapolate to what Alpe d'Huez time would be in line with those performances, and my guess is 38'13'', or nearly a minute faster than they went last year (and 9'' slower than Armstrong in 2001).
 
At meat puppet, I think Vingegaard looks very skinny to me if you ask me. very.
But yes, I agree with you that something happened in 2020. Something changed.

IMO, if there is some new EPO-level drug, it started to show up in 2019. Alaphilippe, Lutsenko, Fuglsang, Astana in general in the spring , Alaphilippe again at the Tour and Pogacar at the Vuelta. that was where this started I think.
 
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This one was brilliant too, there were rumblings that Astana had a cracked tt specialist working on some big brained pacing strategy, then in the next TT Ion came like 70th or something.


That whole Dauphine was a classic of the genre
 
I'm not suggesting any conspiracy theory here, but it seems odd that Cavendish broke his collarbone after crashing in a relatively benign part of a stage where nothing was happening other than a touch of wheels after a feed zone.
In the past, that guy would get up after getting run over by a Mack Truck and finish the stage.
Maybe he was just looking for a way out after realizing he lacked both a team and wherewithal to duke it out by himself. No doubt his bones are brittle after sustaining multiple serious injuries, so I don't blame him for calling it a day.
Youtube awaits!
Just kidding. He is one of few who managed to make enough money during his career to consider a second job.
 
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But yes, I agree with you that something happened in 2020. Something changed.
I think its very obvious actually that COVID with basically no tests for some time enabled something like next level arms race. Just remember back when the first State of the Peloton thread was created exactly for the surprisingly fast climbing times in late 2020. And since then it never returned back. I guess riders and teams were once again reminded in how far in front of testing regimes they actually are/can be.
 
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IMO, if there is some new EPO-level drug, it started to show up in 2019. Alaphilippe, Lutsenko, Fuglsang, Astana in general in the spring , Alaphilippe again at the Tour and Pogacar at the Vuelta. that was where this started I think.
At the sam time all of the guys you mention (apart from Pogacar obviously) are now completely off speed. So what happened? Other times just caught up during COVID?
 
IMO, if there is some new EPO-level drug, it started to show up in 2019. Alaphilippe, Lutsenko, Fuglsang, Astana in general in the spring , Alaphilippe again at the Tour and Pogacar at the Vuelta. that was where this started I think.

Pinot almost won the 2019 TDF, he was on par with Alaphilippe, stronger than the Astanas. then he got injured
 
Jan 29, 2017
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IMO, if there is some new EPO-level drug, it started to show up in 2019. Alaphilippe, Lutsenko, Fuglsang, Astana in general in the spring , Alaphilippe again at the Tour and Pogacar at the Vuelta. that was where this started I think.
Why does it have to be some new drug? They have probably just gone back to micro dosing EPO with steroid backup. Teams have just been pushing against the blood passport limits to see what they can get away with and realised it is a lot, and the uci seems to have moved away from the stricter enforcement brought in in the late 00s.
They might want to revisit that approach now we have gotten to the point where two pretty blatant dopers are regularly setting course records.
 
I think its very obvious actually that COVID with basically no tests for some time enabled something like next level arms race. Just remember back when the first State of the Peloton thread was created exactly for the surprisingly fast climbing times in late 2020. And since then it never returned back. I guess riders and teams were once again reminded in how far in front of testing regimes they actually are/can be.
If you could get there simply by pushing the existing stuff to the extreme we would have seen that way earlier.
 
Pog distanced the best of the rest by 51 seconds in 1 km or so. This is another Tour when the two mutants are toying with the rest. When they accelerated it looked like the rest stopped riding lol. Without Pog Vinge would have crushed his rivals here and probably attacked earlier after Kuss job. Only Pog made him ride more cautiously, he obviously had the watts to demolish the rest.
 
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If you could get there simply by pushing the existing stuff to the extreme we would have seen that way earlier.
Are you not over-estimating the savviness of the people involved here? Or just people in general. How much time is needed to get it "right". Probably, they dont experiment in or around their own facilities. If shady things are happening... it is happening far away from the action. In the peripheral. Not in some fancy lab, were they created something groundbreaking. Thats like sending someone on a dummy mission to try and find something that doesnt exist.

It is also still very much the "same" people behind the scenes in most teams. People from the past. That should be the first clue, imo.

I think it is more the course of time playing its part here. Perfecting ideas or ways they go about it. Then probably things like being backed with more money and just becoming smarter etc. Learning.

Like back in the day... everybody went to the same doctor. They were storing it in freeze boxes. Code names were used. It wasnt "pretty". Quite amateurish operations, really. Too many people involved. It was bound to blow up in big scandals and people, who were caught, talked to escape hard punishments/sentences.

Point is... I wouldnt be suprised if they have just become more sophisticated and bullet proof in their operations, more than anything else.
 
Are you not over-estimating the savviness of the people involved here? Or just people in general. How much time is needed to get it "right". Probably, they dont experiment in or around their own facilities. If shady things are happening... it is happening far away from the action. In the peripheral. Not in some fancy lab, were they created something groundbreaking. Thats like sending someone on a dummy mission to try and find something that doesnt exist.

It is also still very much the "same" people behind the scenes in most teams. People from the past. That should be the first clue, imo.

I think it is more the course of time playing its part here. Perfecting ideas or ways they go about it. Then probably things like being backed with more money and just becoming smarter etc. Learning.

Like back in the day... everybody went to the same doctor. They were storing it in freeze boxes. Code names were used. It wasnt "pretty". Quite amateurish operations, really. Too many people involved. It was bound to blow up in big scandals and people, who were caught, talked to escape hard punishments/sentences.

Point is... I wouldnt be suprised if they have just become more sophisticated and bullet proof in their operations, more than anything else.
And you don't have to look very far in who works behind the scenes. Let's take UAE an example. The CEO and principal is of course Mauro Gianetti ... nothing subtle about his history in the sport.

And JV, aren't they related to a team that might have been called Rabobank? ;)
 
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And you don't have to look very far in who works behind the scenes. Let's take UAE an example. The CEO and principal is of course Mauro Gianetti ... nothing subtle about his history in the sport.

And JV, aren't they related to a team that might have been called Rabobank? ;)
Exactly. It is what it is.

A lot of the guys from the 90s and 00s, they have 20-30 years of experience at this point. They have just gotten smarter and learned. There is always gonna be people who is better at it, than someone else.
 
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If you could get there simply by pushing the existing stuff to the extreme we would have seen that way earlier.
This is a great point! They've likely tried a lot of different methods with the past PEDs, now they're onto something new.


The riding is crazy, noboby drops the entire peloton day after day on pan y agua. Nobody.