Targets of grand tour riders in 2020

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After the TdF & the Olympics? I don't think that's possible. Maybe he'll be challenging Dennis for the rainbow jersey, but that's it.
I think the flat wc ITT favours Rohan.
If Tom was riding the Giro as a leader and Steven the Vuelta sending both of them to the Tour to support Roglic could work.
With Tom, Poels and Mollema all riding the Tour the Dutch don't have many good options for the Olympic RR. Who else do they have, Wilco?
 
That gives me an idea for a little thought experiment; what eight riders could/should Movistar pick for the Giro, if they all have to be eligible for the youth classification?
Here is Movistar's list of U-25 riders (as that's what needed for youth classification).

Juan Diego Alba 22
Gabriel Cullaigh 23
Inigo Elosegui 21
Juri Hollmann 20
Johan Jocob 22
Matteo Jorgenson 20
Einer Augusto Rubio Reyes 21
unfortunately Mathias Norsgaard 22 is injured.

These are the 3 riders who are currently 24:
Enric Mas (not going to the Giro)
Hector Carretero
Sergio Samitier
 
Here is Movistar's list of U-25 riders (as that's what needed for youth classification).

Juan Diego Alba 22
Gabriel Cullaigh 23
Inigo Elosegui 21
Juri Hollmann 20
Johan Jocob 22
Matteo Jorgenson 20
Einer Augusto Rubio Reyes 21
unfortunately Mathias Norsgaard 22 is injured.

These are the 3 riders who are currently 24:
Enric Mas (not going to the Giro)
Hector Carretero
Sergio Samitier
The three you mention last will also be part of youth competitions next year.
 
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The three you mention last will also be part of youth competitions next year.
Yep, that's why I listed them last as they don't qualify for a U-23 team, but do qualify for the youth classification. Although we know Mas isn't going to the Giro. Even removing him from picking a Giro team we can still take a full team eligible for the youth competition. That could definitely be entertaining. I'd suspect sending a team like that would mean no pressure for results.
 
Here is Movistar's list of U-25 riders (as that's what needed for youth classification).

Juan Diego Alba 22
Gabriel Cullaigh 23
Inigo Elosegui 21
Juri Hollmann 20
Johan Jocob 22
Matteo Jorgenson 20
Einer Augusto Rubio Reyes 21
unfortunately Mathias Norsgaard 22 is injured.

These are the 3 riders who are currently 24:
Enric Mas (not going to the Giro)
Hector Carretero
Sergio Samitier
Hardly any of those guys are ready for a GT.

In the Giro Movistar will probably be stage hunting with Prades, Villella, Cataldo (if he's not going to the Tour), Betancur (if he stays) and Sepulveda (if not Tour). I guess Carretero will make the team as well, and possibly Rubio and/or Samitier.
 
Hardly any of those guys are ready for a GT.

In the Giro Movistar will probably be stage hunting with Prades, Villella, Cataldo (if he's not going to the Tour), Betancur (if he stays) and Sepulveda (if not Tour). I guess Carretero will make the team as well, and possibly Rubio and/or Samitier.
Based on Betancur being at the team presentation, I suspect he's staying.

For the Tour: My guesses after Valverde, Mas, and Soler are: Verona, Arcas, Erviti, Pedrero, and one more possibly Sepulveda.

I do suspect they won't take a team of just kids to the Giro as they do have 2 Italian riders who I'd guess will go to the Giro. They do seem to try to send their Italian riders to the Giro.
 
Based on Betancur being at the team presentation, I suspect he's staying.

For the Tour: My guesses after Valverde, Mas, and Soler are: Verona, Arcas, Erviti, Pedrero, and one more possibly Sepulveda.

I do suspect they won't take a team of just kids to the Giro as they do have 2 Italian riders who I'd guess will go to the Giro. They do seem to try to send their Italian riders to the Giro.
What exactly has Arcas done to deserve a Tour spot? I would think that a guy like Rojas is a teeny tiny step ahead of him...
 
What exactly has Arcas done to deserve a Tour spot? I would think that a guy like Rojas is a teeny tiny step ahead of him...
Rojas should be going to la Vuelta with possible stage win opportunities depending on how it plays out. That is my big reason for not putting him on the Tour team.
Didn't Arcas ride a good Vuelta in support of Valverde this season?
 
I would think Oliveira is fairly certain to start the TDF for Movistar, they need to have some that can ride on the flat too and he must be well ahead of for instance Arcas in the hierachi. And also I would be very surpriced if Arcas made the team, while Rojas also would normally start. Rojas is very close to Valverde though so with Valverde only riding as training for the Olympics and the Vuelta, he could be saved for that. Erviti as always and Verona are likely certain also besides the 3 captains, and then Pedrero would be a good helper for sure but I guess the team could also choose to give him his own chance in the Giro and use someone like Sepulveda in the TDF instead.

My guess is the TDF team will be: Mas, Valverde, Soler, Erviti, Oliveira, Verona, Rojas, Pedrero or Sepulveda (or Amador if he ends up staying).
 
Hardly any of those guys are ready for a GT.

In the Giro Movistar will probably be stage hunting with Prades, Villella, Cataldo (if he's not going to the Tour), Betancur (if he stays) and Sepulveda (if not Tour). I guess Carretero will make the team as well, and possibly Rubio and/or Samitier.
Cataldo has been one of the strongest domestique around this year, would be very strange to see him used only for stage hunting.
 
I would think Oliveira is fairly certain to start the TDF for Movistar, they need to have some that can ride on the flat too and he must be well ahead of for instance Arcas in the hierachi. And also I would be very surpriced if Arcas made the team, while Rojas also would normally start. Rojas is very close to Valverde though so with Valverde only riding as training for the Olympics and the Vuelta, he could be saved for that. Erviti as always and Verona are likely certain also besides the 3 captains, and then Pedrero would be a good helper for sure but I guess the team could also choose to give him his own chance in the Giro and use someone like Sepulveda in the TDF instead.

My guess is the TDF team will be: Mas, Valverde, Soler, Erviti, Oliveira, Verona, Rojas, Pedrero or Sepulveda (or Amador if he ends up staying).

Good point on Oliveira. You're right, he'd be over Arcas to go to the Tour. I just think a fresher Rojas for the Vuelta due to the layout of the route of each, plus Valverde's claims he's leaving the Tour before the end seems to make more sense. Although he could easily go to both.

I'd go with Valverde, Soler, Mas, Erviti, Verona going to both Tour and Vuelta. (Mas has said he wants to do two GT's for the first time in 2020.)
 
That's a turn up for the books with S.Yates doing a full program in the Giro - So it seems that MS will contecs GC in the Giro and the Vuelta while the TDF will be stage hunting.
Sensible decision to me. He seems to like the Giro, and came semi close to winning it in 2018, and then didn't appear to time his form right in 2019. With so many big guns from Jumbo and Ineos set to race the Tour, Giro is a better chance for a podium for Simon I believe.
 
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Sensible decision to me. He seems to like the Giro, and came semi close to winning it in 2018, and then didn't appear to time his form right in 2019. With so many big guns from Jumbo and Ineos set to race the Tour, Giro is a better chance for a podium for Simon I believe.
It should be that S.Yates is doing the full Australian program - Strange when Yates x 2 were influential in GC riders staying in Europe - Things change ! Anyway Dirk Provin will be miffed at this turn of events.
 
Just catching up with everything. So is this where it stands for Giro/Tour now?

Giro:

Nibali
Bardet
S Yates
Fuglsang
Zakarin
Kelderman
Majka
Carapaz

Tour:

Kruiswijk
Dumoulin
Roglic
Pogacar
Aru
Pinot
Quintana
Buchmann
Mas
Valverde
Martin
Mollema
Alaphilippe
Porte
Lopez
Uran
Bernal
Thomas
Froome (not announced but there's 0% chance he goes to the Giro - he likely wouldn't be recovered enough to be competitive anyway)

With these left to be decided:

A Yates, Chaves

I'm really liking the looks of this. The Giro field looks super, super weak but it will be fun anyway and we've got almost all of the best guys in the world butting heads at the Tour. Trek has it backwards, imo.

*Lists updated Dec 31st
 
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