It looks like Roglic and Bernal are the two favourites, with a slight edge for Roglic at the moment.
Pinot, Dumoulin, Buchmann, Quintana and Landa are next in line. Between these five, it's really unclear who you'd fancy.
Pinot looked the best at Dauphine. Maybe not super strong on the last day but still his form is exactly where you'd want him to be right now. He was the strongest climber in last year's race, and he'll need to be again this year if he's to have any chance of winning. Could be his year, or could be the usual.
Dumoulin is the most interesting - it's not often that the man who finishes 7th in the Dauphine is one of the biggest Tour favourites, but his form really did look good. That is, as good as one's form can look when not riding for GC. It's actually really difficult to properly gauge his form at the moment; he barely did anything for himself, but when he did attack on the final day he looked good. But surely you'd expect him to drop that group after sitting on for 15km while they worked frantically at the front. Still, he's looking good and he has the greatest GT pedigree out of all his rivals.
Buchmann looked to be at exactly the same level as Pinot in the Dauphine - pretty good for his first race back. Most likely would have podiumed if not for all the crashes, but he did crash and at the moment that's very worrying. Last year he was outclimbed by only Pinot and Bernal, and he'll be hoping to take another step this year. However, it all depends on his shape following the crash. He'll need to get back to 100% soon or he could be out of contention in the first week.
Quintana was of course super strong in the early season, but since the restart he's been inconsistent. A lot of that inconsistency is probably down to the injuries he sustained back in Colombia. The final day at the Dauphine did not look good at all, but he still has a very good chance.
Landa looked really strong, but like a lot of guys the final day at the Dauphine was just not good at all. He attacked early on and then got cramps. What does that tell us? I really don't know, but surely it won't happen again in the Tour.
Then there's Guillaume Martin. If you go by his reputation, he'll be looking to finish just inside the top 10. If you go by his form (most importantly, his form in this topsy turvy restart world) he could end up winning the bloody thing.