The Chris Squared Thread

[Ferminal]

Expect this to be revised to 380 W and 6.2-6.4 w/kg

Which variable is incorrect? Even if he weighed 60kg it wouldn't be any more than ~6.2 (based on Pinot). I presume you've seen the SRM file.

 

[Dear Wiggo]

@RR

Horner did less than 6.0 W/kg on Angliru.

EDIT: Vetooo
#LaVuelta, Angliru (12.80 km, 9.64 %, 1234 m). Chris Horner ("63.5 kg"): 43:07, 17.81 Kph, VAM 1717 m/h, 5.88 W/kg [CPL / "full drafting"].

17.81km/hr with full drafting. Given the steepness of the climb and the low speed, any reduction in power due to drafting would have to be 5/10s of sweet FA innit?

 

[Race Radio]

Which variable is incorrect? Even if he weighed 60kg it wouldn't be any more than ~6.2 (based on Pinot). I presume you've seen the SRM file.

Sure, I saw this

Thibaut Pinot (64-65 kg): 44:41. SRM: 384.4 W / 5.91 - 6.01 W/kg http://twitter.com/ThibautPinot/status/379716779863711744/photo/1pic.twitter.com/pqXhScsfqq | Horner 1:33 faster

And I have talked with Vetoo about it. He equates it to 6.25 w/kg for Horner. I think it is 6.3. For over 40 minutes, in the 20th stage of a GT. Impressive.

 

[Ferminal]

I think it's < 6.3 but I'm not going to pretend it IS unless I produce the calculation which shows that.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Sure, I saw this


And I have talked with Vetoo about it. He equates it to 6.25 w/kg for Horner. I think it is 6.3. For over 40 minutes, in the 20th stage of a GT. Impressive.

Horner is just the superior rider in his prime isn't he....

 

[the sceptic]

Pinot did 6 w/kg for 45 minutes? Must have been a tailwind then.

 

[Merckx index]

Pinot did 6 w/kg for 45 minutes? Must have been a tailwind then.

A tailwind, of course, won't affect SRM. If Pinot did 5.9-6.0 watts/kg for this climb, then based on his VAM, there must have been a headwind. Anyone have weather info for that climb?

 

[sniper]

If your arguments make sense I would challenge them, but they don't. Don't confused quantity of words with quality.

Do you have an example of Froome doing 6.3 w/kg for 40 + minutes?

for what it's worth, they made sense to me.

in 2011 froome was a domestique, and only at the very start of his bad-*** carreer transformation. not sure how you could not take that into account.

if you wanna compare times up a given mountain, you do that between two riders in roughly the same situation (e.g. froome 2013 vs. armstrong 2000 both team leaders both yellow both at the height of their carreer), not between two riders in quite different situations (e.g. froome 2011 vs. horner 2013).

nobody, including hitch afaik, is pretending to know with certainty that vuelta-horner wouldn't have beaten tdf-froome. he may have, he may not have. the point i think most agree with is we can't objectively tell.
and there's also the observation made by several posters that froome didn't seem to go (or wasn't pushed to go) 100% in the 2013 tdf.

final point/question: can we take grappe's calculations on froome at face value?
he quite blatantly defended armstrong against doping accusations in the past.

 

[JimmyFingers]

and there's also the observation made by several posters that froome didn't seem to go (or wasn't pushed to go) 100% in the 2013 tdf.

I've heard this mentioned before. Just wondering how on earth people watching the race on the telly can make such an 'observation'? It's pure conjecture.

 

[sniper]

I've heard this mentioned before. Just wondering how on earth people watching the race on the telly can make such an 'observation'? It's pure conjecture.

Horner would not have won the vuelta without a refill on the 2nd restday and 100% full gas in the third week.
Froome had already won the tdf on the 2nd restday.

even if it's just conjecture, this should be taken into account as one of many variables before we start comparing horner's third-week vuelta with froome's third-week tdf performances.
I think RR has ignored this so far, but it would be interesting to hear what he thinks and how this may or may not have affected froome's numbers especially in the third week.

 

[Race Radio]

Horner would not have won the vuelta without a refill on the 2nd restday and 100% full gas in the third week.
Froome had already won the tdf on the 2nd restday.

even if it's just conjecture, this should be taken into account as one of many variables before we start comparing horner's third-week vuelta with froome's third-week tdf performances.
I think RR has ignored this so far, but it would be interesting to hear what he thinks and how this may or may not have affected froome's numbers especially in the third week.

Actually I have address this before, unfortunately it was lost in a sea of trolling

Lost in the endless trolling about wind on Ventoux is the fact that Froome pulled away from Quintana in the final 7-9km of the climb, putting 29 seconds into him. It was likely the best example of "Full Gas Froome" we have.

Because of various elements that have been discussed to death it is hard to get an accurate calculation of Froome performance on Ventoux BUT it is possible to use 2 other climbs where Quintana went full gas, Semnoz and Alp d'Huez, as markers. Froome was not full gas on either day, close on the Semnoz but not full gas.

So what would Froome's result been if he went full gas on these two climbs? Based on Ventoux he likely would have put @45 seconds on Quintana on Alp d'huez and maybe 30 seconds Semnoz, instead of losing time on both.

Some vary rough, top of my head, calculations would put "full gas Froome" at about 6.2-6.3 for 30 minutes on the Semnoz....or about the same as Horner for 43 minutes on the Angrilu.

Again, this is top of my head calculations. The Horner numbers are pretty accurate as they are the result of comparing multiple SRM files from the stage, the Froome numbers are an educated guess....but they are the basis for my conclusion that Horner would have out climbed Froome. Not, as some claim, some weird desire to "Protect" Sky or Froome (Who comes up with this ****? )

 

[Race Radio]

I think it's < 6.3 but I'm not going to pretend it IS unless I produce the calculation which shows that.

Based on multiple SRM files I have seen I think 6.25 and Horner's real weight being @62kg

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

Because of various elements that have been discussed to death it is hard to get an accurate calculation of Froome performance on Ventoux BUT it is possible to use 2 other climbs where Quintana went full gas, Semnoz and Alp d'Huez, as markers. Froome was not full gas on either day, close on the Semnoz but not full gas.

It would be interesting to know what you mean by "full gas" for Froome. I watched both the Alpe and Semniz climbs live and to my admittedly untutored eye, Froome looked as though he got to the top of each climb as quickly as he could on the day, albeit he would probably have climed the Alpe a few seconds faster if he'd paced himself rather than attacking hard half way up.

Does "full gas" mean performing at his maximum potential level in an absolute sense, rather than at his maximum level on the day?

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

...there's also the observation made by several posters that froome didn't seem to go (or wasn't pushed to go) 100% in the 2013 tdf.

Is this 100% of his capability on the day or 100% of the performance levels that were predicted for him in advance?

 

[Von Mises]

even if it's just conjecture, this should be taken into account as one of many variables before we start comparing horner's third-week vuelta with froome's third-week tdf performances.

No, it should not be taken into account, because it so subjective and practically impossible to determine. Go and look some historical pre-Epo footage and you can find plenty of examples, where this or that rider can be described same way, for instance Lemond ITT 1989 - he just achieved fastest TT in history but looks fresh as a daisy. My point, people are different, their body language, facial expressions, looks etc is different.

 

[sniper]

No, it should not be taken into account, because it so subjective and practically impossible to determine. Go and look some historical pre-Epo footage and you can find plenty of examples, where this or that rider can be described same way, for instance Lemond ITT 1989 - he just achieved fastest TT in history but looks fresh as a daisy. My point, people are different, their body language, facial expressions, looks etc is different.

at the start of week 3 froome was in safe haven already.
horner the complete opposite.
it's seems quite straightforward to assume that that might've influenced their respective third week performances.

whether it made a lot of difference or not is indeed conjecture, but the point is that it's another variable that makes the horner-froome comparison a bit less attractive.

anyway, i find race radio's answer pretty clear and satisfactory.

 

[Ferminal]

Based on multiple SRM files I have seen I think 6.25 and Horner's real weight being @62kg

Sounds about right.

 

[sniper]

Is this 100% of his capability on the day or 100% of the performance levels that were predicted for him in advance?

let's just say there were a couple of key points where he looked as if he had a lot more in the tank. e.g. on the ventoux where he was having small talk through his earpiece in the final kms.

and of course the time trial, most think he could 've won it. remember he was ahead of martin on the two first intervals.
I know we're not looking at TTs right here right now, but this case did seem to show that froome sometimes deliberately held back in order not to make it all look too alien.

so then the third week, i don't know, and yes it's conjecture, but i think that he could've put more time on his followers, even on quintana, in mountains. i think he wisely held back in the 3rd week.

more importantly, i think, is to ponder what would have happened if Quintana (or e.g. Contador) would've been as close to Froome in the GC as Nibali was to Horner, before starting the third week.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

more importantly, i think, is to ponder what would have happened if Quintana (or e.g. Contador) would've been as close to Froome in the GC as Nibali was to Horner, before starting the third week.

If this had been the case for Quintana then he would simply have been accused here of doping much more than he has.

If this had been the case for Contador then we would simply have been accused of doping again, with a few comic references to his rest-day barbeques.

As to how this might have affected the final week of racing, who knows? That's the beauty of sport.

 

[sniper]

If this had been the case for Quintana then he would simply have been accused here of doping much more than he has.

If this had been the case for Contador then we would simply have been accused of doping again, with a few comic references to his rest-day barbeques.

As to how this might have affected the final week of racing, who knows? That's the beauty of sport.

indeed, nobody knows.
so we appear to agree it's an unknonw variable that makes the comparison froome tdf 2013 vs. horner vuelta 2013 less accurate/less attractive, more uncertain.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

indeed, nobody knows.
and hence my point: it's an unknonw variable that makes the comparison froome tdf 2013 vs. horner vuelta 2013 less accurate/less attractive.

I think it's reasonable to assume that in the third week of the Tour, Froome was quite close to the limit. Even before he did his minor "bonk" on the Alpe, his early attack had failed and he was not looking remotely close to dominant. He looked very fatigued on the Semnoz when his late attack failed.

Whether this was due to winding down the doping relative to his Ventoux form or genuine fatigue is anyone's guess!

 

[sniper]

I think it's reasonable to assume that in the third week of the Tour, Froome was quite close to the limit. Even before he did his minor "bonk" on the Alpe, his early attack had failed and he was not looking remotely close to dominant. He looked very fatigued on the Semnoz when his late attack failed.

Whether this was due to winding down the doping relative to his Ventoux form or genuine fatigue is anyone's guess!

agreed.

anyway, if radioshack doctors can make horner go 6.7 w/kg in the 3rd week, me thinks sky doctors can make froome go 6.7 w/kg in the 3rd week.
let's hope horner finds himself a team for next year.

 

[sittingbison]

....Lost in the endless trolling about wind on Ventoux is the fact that Froome pulled away from Quintana in the final 7-9km of the climb, putting 29 seconds into him. It was likely the best example of "Full Gas Froome" we have....

I think this is an under estimation race radio. From memory Dawg launched his infamous extraterrestrial acceleration to distance Bertie at the 7km mark, at which point Quintans was up the road, 30s to a minute? Dawg caught him in a flash, rode with him for a bit chit chatting to Sir Dave on the radio, then put down the hammer only in the last couple of kms to gap Quintana by the 30s you mentioned.

So he put about a minute into Quintana in only about 3-4km of actual attacking. Which changes his maximal performance somewhat.

 

[Wallace and Gromit]

I think this is an under estimation race radio. From memory Dawg launched his infamous extraterrestrial acceleration to distance Bertie at the 7km mark, at which point Quintans was up the road, 30s to a minute? Dawg caught him in a flash, rode with him for a bit chit chatting to Sir Dave on the radio, then put down the hammer only in the last couple of kms to gap Quintana by the 30s you mentioned.

So he put about a minute into Quintana in only about 3-4km of actual attacking. Which changes his maximal performance somewhat.

Though of course Quintana didn't teleport himself into a 30s lead. He had to expend energy to get there, which would inevitably deplete his resources to deal with Froome's subsequent attack, striking though this was.

 

[Von Mises]

I think this is an under estimation race radio. From memory Dawg launched his infamous extraterrestrial acceleration to distance Bertie at the 7km mark, at which point Quintans was up the road, 30s to a minute? Dawg caught him in a flash, rode with him for a bit chit chatting to Sir Dave on the radio, then put down the hammer only in the last couple of kms to gap Quintana by the 30s you mentioned.

So he put about a minute into Quintana in only about 3-4km of actual attacking. Which changes his maximal performance somewhat.

Quintana was up to rode about 15 seconds, I took about 1.35 for Froome to catch him. Then they rode together about 5 km-s and 1,7 kms before finish Quintana satrted to fade. Why I say "Quintana faded", but not "Froome put down the hammer" comes from the fact that gap between Froome and Rodriquez, gap between Froome and Mollema and so on did not grow during last couple of km-s. If you look distance between Quintana and other riders, it is pretty clear that he lost to almost everyone during last 2 kms.