The Cycling Betting Thread

[wirral]

The key thing is that they put in "at any stage" in the betting rules. So I think it is 6. I have looked in their rules and there is no clarification anywhere.

 

[Ferminal]

Wearing pink on stage one does not make you the leader of the race, it is a ceremonial honour. What they actually mean is "how many different riders will be presented with a pink jersey after the stage", you cannot have a leader of the race before a stage has concluded.

If it actually was up to 6 they would have settled the market.

 

[wirral]

I agree with you Ferminal.

What I posted in post #1064 was cut and pasted from their site. So, it is possible what they mean and what they have written as the basis for the market are not really the same. It is all very ambiguous.

 

[Leadbelly]

Goodness knows if all the course will be raced tomorrow, or where they'll finish, but let's have a bet anyway.

Kiserlovski 81ew
Danielson 151ew

Both with PP.

 

[Leadbelly]

Stage 17 - Lancaster 91ew with PP.

 

[Leadbelly]

I just can't resist these prices for tomorrow's TT. No doubt I'll regret it later.

Intxausti 81ew
Cataldo 101ew
Kiserlovski 151ew

All with PP.

 

[Nuash65]

Scarponi at 20s various places ftw or 6 for top 3 Sporting Bet. Got to be good!

 

[manafana]

prefer niemiec i think he looks just as strong at double the price.

 

[The Hitch]

Niemiec attacked on 15,.contested the win from the small late escape on 16 and did pulls on 17. I don't think he has it in him to podium this all things equal, but after all that while everyone else has been resting and the top guys have a gc to aim for, I can't see it. This isn't an mtf where he can steal a march on the leaders.

 

[Ferminal]

Cobo 301
Siutsou 151

 

[Leadbelly]

Bit of lottery as to what the course will end up being tomorrow, but getting on Kelderman 151ew with PP and hoping for the best.

 

[wirral]

"Palped" by Ladbrokes on a Rigoberto Uran Top 3 bet placed just after stage 10. I got it at 16/1 but Ladbrokes decided to pay out at 6/4. Grrr. I had hoped it would slip under their radar.

 

[The Hitch]

"Palped" by Ladbrokes on a Rigoberto Uran Top 3 bet placed just after stage 10. I got it at 16/1 but Ladbrokes decided to pay out at 6/4. Grrr. I had hoped it would slip under their radar.

How can they do that? On what grounds?

 

[search]

they can do whatever they want, there is more or less nothing you can do about it

although (after Uran's stage win and 3rd place in gc) this was an obvious mistake where the only thing you can do is hoping for goodwill. That they paid at all is more than you can expect from most bookies in this situation, usually the bets are cancelled and that's it.

 

[wirral]

Hi Hitch

Here's how it works

All the bookmakers have a "palpable error" rule. Where their traders offer a ridiculous price, often because of carelessness, e.g. not checking the effect of a key stage, or a typo, e.g. 33/1 when it should have been 3/1, the bookmaker is allowed to revise the payout.

It sounds like a rip-off and it is, a little bit, but a bet is not the same as a business contract. When you have a bet, you play under the bookmaker's rules.

Ladbrokes have the most careless staff, worst-trained staff. No bookmaker makes as many errors of carelessness and silly mistakes as Ladbrokes. They are always rectifying palpable errors. The dirty bit is that even though they know it is a palpable error, they don't tell you. With my Uran bet after stage 10, they had almost 2 weeks to tell me but they kept schtum. I like to hedge off a winning bet if the odds come in significantly. But I couldn't 'cos I didn't know if Ladbrokes were going to palp me. In this case, they did. I checked what the other bookies were offering after stage 10 and it was between Evens and 6/4 so it was about right.

If you disagree with the way a bookie has paid out, you can take them to the IBAS, the Adjucation Service, in the UK. They are pretty good. They will not overturn a palpable error though. They will, however, up the price if it does not match the market at the time it was struck.

On a separate issue, 6, that's 6 pink jerseys. There's gonna be some ****ed-off Betfair punters. Don't say I didn't tell you 2 pages back.

 

[The Hitch]

they can do whatever they want, there is more or less nothing you can do about it

although (after Uran's stage win and 3rd place in gc) this was an obvious mistake where the only thing you can do is hoping for goodwill. That they paid at all is more than you can expect from most bookies in this situation, usually the bets are cancelled and that's it.

But if he lost the bet he wouldn't have gotten his money back?

 

[MADRAZO]

How can they do that? On what grounds?

16/1 for podium after stage 10 point was an obvious mistake, so its fair enough they change the odds. If we the bettors has the right to complain about limits we also have to play fair. Sometimes ofcourse a obvious mistake can be just because the bookies compile badly, and then its unfair if they change and they rarely do, but 16/1 at this time must have been because they put a unupdated podiumodds out or something. Clearly it was a obvious mistake and I would not have touched the oddst myself being afraid of a potential limitpunishment for playing unfair.

 

[gooner]

Just checking the odds for the Tour with Paddy Power where it says Quintana is 33/1 for the win.

An each way bet on that is great value. I have to do it before the Dauphine as his price could come in a lot further if he performs there.

 

[wheelie1977]

Just checking the odds for the Tour with Paddy Power where it says Quintana is 33/1 for the win.

An each way bet on that is great value. I have to do it before the Dauphine as his price could come in a lot further if he performs there.

i'm not sure I agree with this. value on Quintana at 33s - think you're looking at a place bet of 8/1 more than likely and then seeing if there are 3 others who can beat him ?

with the current crop contesting, I'd have 5 or 6 of them ahead of him so you're hoping for some bad luck among the chief protagonists and for him to be given team leader duties ahead of Valverde. While you may hope for the former, Valverde is the main man for Movistar, it's practically his team. Quintana will be given his chance but not as a leader this year. Just an opinion.

 

[search]

But if he lost the bet he wouldn't have gotten his money back?

usually the market is cancelled and you do get your money back in advance (before the bet is decided)

I don't know how ladbrokes behaved in this case though, but they propably offered him to either cancel the bet or keep it at reduced odds.

 

[Cramps]

Valverde is the main man for Movistar, it's practically his team. Quintana will be given his chance but not as a leader this year. Just an opinion.

Quintana generally found at same odds FTW as Valverde. I agree with above poster, how can this be? I was surprised and wondering wether Valverde might be undervalued. Based on last year and what little there is for him this year, I would have guessed Valverde about equal to Rodriguez, better than Evans, and certainly more likely winner than Quintana and Wiggins for team strategic reasons. Instad he's half the odds of Purito, and behind all of rest. eg Paddy Power: Valverde 33/1, Purito 14/1, Evans 25/1, QUintana 33/1

Has there been any odd news concerning Valverde's form?

 

[Iron Lungs]

Quintana generally found at same odds FTW as Valverde. I agree with above poster, how can this be? I was surprised and wondering wether Valverde might be undervalued. Based on last year and what little there is for him this year, I would have guessed Valverde about equal to Rodriguez, better than Evans, and certainly more likely winner than Quintana and Wiggins for team strategic reasons. Instad he's half the odds of Purito, and behind all of rest. eg Paddy Power: Valverde 33/1, Purito 14/1, Evans 25/1, QUintana 33/1

Has there been any odd news concerning Valverde's form?

I think his age combined with his lack of serious performance ever in the Tour and under performance this year, (bookmakers theory) are reasons for the price and I myself would be looking at him for a top 6 position. He represents far better "value", I hate the word, than some of the others.

Then again, it's conjecture, what would I know, I had Wiggins and Hesjedal ahead of Nibali for the Giro !

I don't think Froome is invincible and I certainly can't have him as a short favourite but I do think Rodriguez is overpriced at any double figures, there is nothing between he and Contador and Valverde based on Vuelta form and with less time trialling.

Surprise "value" packages -

Kessiakoff for a big Tour, very much under the radar due to 2 bouts of illness but he rode well nonetheless - he can climb and Astana cannot depend on Fuglsang. 500/1

Not really a surprise but Tom De Gendt could have a storming final week, remember his ascent of Alpe d'Huez in 2011 ? Wouldn't put it past him to improve on his Stelvio ascent. 150/1

My 3rd wildcard/joker has to be Hesjedal. If you think he prepared well for the Giro, then he's a shoe-in to go well in better weather in Le Tour. Something was amiss towards the end of the first week, that's for sure, but you don't lose the workload put in in 6 weeks, maybe 1 week off the bike, virus sorted, back better than ever. 100/1

Bauke Mollema - still looking for him to push on from his brilliant career start but surely Blanco need to look to him now more than ever with Gesink all over the place. 400/1

paddy power would let you have about 10c on any of those

 

[Ferminal]

Purito can put time into him on every MTF, and Piti's TT'ing isn't consistent enough to know for sure he's going to take 1'30' - 2'00 on the flat one. But I guess we shouldn't think of it like that anyway. A H2H it might be Purito's favour only 60-40, but relatively speaking he's highly favoured for the overall because the potential for him to be the best climber in the race whereas we can be quite confident that Valverde will be both outclimbed and out TT'ed by Contador and Froome. In a place only market he'd be a good bet.

It's probably similar for Quintana may be expected to finish 5th-10th but with a chance he will be as good a climber as any. I'm a Quintana fanboy but am not overly convinced that he will be able to put a three week performance together.

 

[Pulpstar]

The value in TdF surely has to be Each-Way outside Froomedog and Bertie.

28/05/2013 Single Each-Way T Van Garderen @ 26.00
Outright Betting
Tour de France 2013 Pending £2.50
28/05/2013 Single Each-Way N Quintana @ 34.00
Outright Betting
Tour de France 2013 Pending £2.50
28/05/2013 Single Each-Way T De Gendt @ 151.00
Outright Betting
Tour de France 2013 Pending £2.00
28/05/2013 Single To Win C Evans @ 26.00
Outright Betting
Tour de France 2013 Pending £2.50
28/05/2013 Single Each-Way A Valverde @ 34.00
Outright Betting
Tour de France 2013 £5

Also have a bumper win if Porte gets top 3, backed him at 100-1 with some other bookie E/W

Edit: Heres the Porte bet:

28 Mar 2013 17:27 Tour De France 2013 General Classification Winner, Porte, Richie, 100/1
Single £4.40 E/W, £8.80 (Pot. Ret. £536.80)

God forbid Froome, Contador and even Wiggins crash/get sick

If I was betting serious cash it would probably be on Froome. But too low return for such a race with so many variables.

 

[Iron Lungs]

Purito can put time into him on every MTF, and Piti's TT'ing isn't consistent enough to know for sure he's going to take 1'30' - 2'00 on the flat one. But I guess we shouldn't think of it like that anyway. A H2H it might be Purito's favour only 60-40, but relatively speaking he's highly favoured for the overall because the potential for him to be the best climber in the race whereas we can be quite confident that Valverde will be both outclimbed and out TT'ed by Contador and Froome. In a place only market he'd be a good bet.

It's probably similar for Quintana may be expected to finish 5th-10th but with a chance he will be as good a climber as any. I'm a Quintana fanboy but am not overly convinced that he will be able to put a three week performance together.

this I wholeheartedly agree with

and it's the same rationale I put in for the Giro and theories get blown out of the water. The beauty of racing - it's unpredictability one day to the next.

I make Quintana the Betancur/Santambrogio of Le Tour - stage winner, hard to predict how 3rd week will go.

Sidenote, I'll say now though that Betancur has a fantastic chance of winning a GT in the next 2 years.