Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Berniece]

I simply cannot accept Remco being 3 minutes down is still 3rd best performance in 21st century. No disrespect to Remco, he's done a fantastic job this Tour and exceeded my expectations for him by miles, but it's not possible, it makes no sense....

You don't have to accept it, but that's not really logical.

• Riders have been breaking more and more records the past few years.
• Vingegaard claims this was his best ride ever
• This is the biggest race in the world, so everyone is at their best
• Materials have been better
• Nutrition is much better

Combination of all those things makes it make sense that a rider that is in his best shape ever, now also has the 3rd best performance of this century.

On reading the graph, those other two are in a much shorter time frame. The longer the climbing, the harder it gets, so I would see the performance of Remco as more impressive.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Evenpoel has 2 climbing performances in the top 40 of all time. Roglic has none.

The fact that many climbed that fast is undoubtedly related to the pace the first part of the climb. The fact that Pogacar beat it by so much is undoubtedly related by the fact that he had a domestique de luxe in Vingegaard who further paced him into the final 5k. The stage was long, hard and also raced hard early on. I have not heard of super tailwinds, but i may be mistaken. I don't suppose half of the peloton had a blood transfusion overnight or was riding with motors.

You realize that one of those 2 is Evenepoel's performance on Lo Port when he was beaten by Roglic, right? Does that seem like the best evidence to cite? To me that undercuts this whole, "top 3 greatest performances ever" narrative: The curators who are defining this are selective, biased, making assumptions and decisions in their model, and incentivized to sell hard.

It seems fairly obvious this is the best form we’ve seen from Remco and he timed it really well, getting stronger into the latter bit of the race. Roglic had a good day on stage11 and still crashed. Fatigue? Seems like a potential contributor. Maybe not. He hung on for stage 9, Would have easily been taken out of the race on stage 4 had UAE or Visma been remotely worried about him. Looked rough on stage 2. Remco has been on the front and at the sharp end the entire race, whenever it mattered.

That there’s something going on seems clear, but tangential.

Sure, although I'd point out that Remco is 5 minutes down on Pogacar despite winning the ITT, so "sharp end" is a bit of a stretch." Regardless, I'm not sure how Roglic's rocky start undercuts my skepticism that suddenly the top 10 or so would all beat Lance in 2000 and Contador in 2007. It almost makes me think this picture is a bit too simplistic...

@Berniece & @Logic-is-your-friend
Maybe I am misinterpreting these charts but aren't both Pogacar's Pla d'Adet (by a very slim margin) and Simon Yates' Blatten both higher above the purple line in the first chart of lanetrnerouge analysis than Remco's Beille, making Remco's performance 5th in 2024 only? So how come the article claims it's 3rd best in 21st century?

Furthermore, even though Vingegaard claims the numbers are accurate for this climb, the numbers of other climbs that they are being compared with might have been inaccurate. And what is shockingly accurate? Is it 1%, 2%, 5%?
5% is the difference between Vingegaard and Remco in Beille.

I simply cannot accept Remco being 3 minutes down is still 3rd best performance in 21st century. No disrespect to Remco, he's done a fantastic job this Tour and exceeded my expectations for him by miles, but it's not possible, it makes no sense....

Exactly. We're really supposed to believe that Remco being absolutely obliterated is "better" than anything that Lance, Contador, Basso, Froome, Roglic, Vingegaard (until this Tour when he is barely recovered from an extremely bad crash), and Pogacar (until this Tour) have ever done?

To be clear, I'm not referencing The Clinic, which I know how to find. I am more speculating regarding:

• Biased analysis & reporting
• Unreported / unacknowledged factors that explain consistently high performances across the top 10; I have no idea if any of these are relevant, but a non-exhaustive list of factors could include:
  • Weather conditions
  • Road surface
  • Changes in the start or finish
  • The way the race was ridden
  • The way previous top performances on the climb were ridden (I know Contador and Rasmussen did a series of sprints and recoveries, which indicates they could have certainly gone faster)
  • Impact of motorcycles

 

[scribers]

Add advances in training to the mix of factors. Clearly if pogi can add this much capacity to his form by switching coaches, this is the next level area everyone will be attending to. Would love to have sola’s resume right now.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Wind resistance should be included as a factor in those calculations, so that is possible if Evenepoel rode more on the front.

Ok where do we draw the line? What about relative cda? Shouldn’t that be factored in though? Maybe we should make an assumption on reserves leftover?

 

[peterfin]

You realize that one of those 2 is Evenepoel's performance on Lo Port when he was beaten by Roglic, right? Does that seem like the best evidence to cite? To me that undercuts this whole, "top 3 greatest performances ever" narrative: The curators who are defining this are selective, biased, making assumptions and decisions in their model, and incentivized to sell hard.

Sure, although I'd point out that Remco is 5 minutes down on Pogacar despite winning the ITT, so "sharp end" is a bit of a stretch." Regardless, I'm not sure how Roglic's rocky start undercuts my skepticism that suddenly the top 10 or so would all beat Lance in 2000 and Contador in 2007. It almost makes me think this picture is a bit too simplistic...

Exactly. We're really supposed to believe that Remco being absolutely obliterated is "better" than anything that Lance, Contador, Basso, Froome, Roglic, Vingegaard (until this Tour when he is barely recovered from an extremely bad crash), and Pogacar (until this Tour) have ever done?

To be clear, I'm not referencing The Clinic, which I know how to find. I am more speculating regarding:

• Biased analysis & reporting
• Unreported / unacknowledged factors that explain consistently high performances across the top 10; I have no idea if any of these are relevant, but a non-exhaustive list of factors could include:
  • Weather conditions
  • Road surface
  • Changes in the start or finish
  • The way the race was ridden
  • The way previous top performances on the climb were ridden (I know Contador and Rasmussen did a series of sprints and recoveries, which indicates they could have certainly gone faster)
  • Impact of motorcycles

Today we have more data and that helps of course but why would his 2 top 40 results be just because of biased reporting and conditions? Most of those you reference had a whole career of climbing so are statistically in a better spot to have perfect conditions. Material, nutrition ... these things probably make a difference vs Lance, Basso and the like, maybe offsetting even their use of illegal substances, so comparisons are difficult accross generations. So I think his top 3 spot is justified vs the current pro peloton. It looks marginal vs some other performances so we can also fairly say that Remco did great and is the first of the 'humans'.

 

[bNator]

You don't have to accept it, but that's not really logical.

• Riders have been breaking more and more records the past few years.
• Vingegaard claims this was his best ride ever
• This is the biggest race in the world, so everyone is at their best
• Materials have been better
• Nutrition is much better

Combination of all those things makes it make sense that a rider that is in his best shape ever, now also has the 3rd best performance of this century.

On reading the graph, those other two are in a much shorter time frame. The longer the climbing, the harder it gets, so I would see the performance of Remco as more impressive.

Re 1st bold part: It may be so, that this was Vingegaards best ride ever but still, for Remco's ride to be 3rd bestin 21st century, this would have to be Vingegaards best ride by at least 5% (!!). So more than 5% better than Granon, more than 5% better than Combloux, more than 5% better than anything else he has done this Tour... I don't buy it. They are making a mistake somewhere with their calculations. I can't prove anything, of course, but neither can they. As @VayaVayaVaya mentioned, there are far to many variables for these calculations to be accurate.

Re 2nd bold part: I think the purpose of inverted curve is to normalise efforts of different durations. Absolute numbers don't matter, what matters is their relative position to the inverted curve. And here, those 2 efforts that I mentioned are higher relative to the inverted curve not just in absolute terms. But this was already explained by @NOT_NORMAL, it's the altitude corrected values. Which again is tricky - what they should be correcting against is the air pressure...

Oh, and regarding better materials: these should also be compensated in calulations if they are using rider power output as their performance quantifier.

 

[Berniece]

Re 1st bold part: It may be so, that this was Vingegaards best ride ever but still, for Remco's ride to be 3rd bestin 21st century, this would have to be Vingegaards best ride by at least 5% (!!). So more than 5% better than Granon, more than 5% better than Combloux, more than 5% better than anything else he has done this Tour... I don't buy it. They are making a mistake somewhere with their calculations. I can't prove anything, of course, but neither can they. As @VayaVayaVaya mentioned, there are far to many variables for these calculations to be accurate.

Re 2nd bold part: I think the purpose of inverted curve is to normalise efforts of different durations. Absolute numbers don't matter, what matters is their relative position to the inverted curve. And here, those 2 efforts that I mentioned are higher relative to the inverted curve not just in absolute terms.

Then you can join VayaVayaVaya in the "they are biased"-camp if that makes you feel better. If you don't have an explanation on why they are incorrect besides "I don't believe it", then you don't really have anything.

Doubt we would have this discussion if Roglic was still in the Tour and finished together with Remco. Which I think he would've btw.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

@Berniece you might be right. I am a Roglic fan and it’s possible my own bias is getting in the way. Roglic is useful as a tool for testing some of the analysis, though. Watch this video staring at 5:00. These analysts have named one of these two ridersz’ performance a top 40 all time performance. Look at how they finish.

View: https://youtu.be/jTXVx3MELn8?feature=shared

 

[bNator]

Then you can join VayaVayaVaya in the "they are biased"-camp if that makes you feel better. If you don't have an explanation on why they are incorrect besides "I don't believe it", then you don't really have anything.

Doubt we would have this discussion if Roglic was still in the Tour and finished together with Remco. Which I think he would've btw.

Ok then, so you accept that Pog and Vinge both produced outliers of more than 7% and 5% respectively in their last ride relative to their previous best of all the efforts in their entire careers? Bacuse that's what it would take for Remco's effort to be 3rd best performance in 21st century...

 

[Andre]

I hope they never climb that bloody mountain ever again.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You realize that one of those 2 is Evenepoel's performance on Lo Port when he was beaten by Roglic, right?

I do. Take a guess why Evenepoel pushed bigger numbers. You won't believe it!

There has been a lot of ridiculing these calculations, but imho Vingegaard's claim that they are nearly dead-on, should count for something.

Wind resistance should be included as a factor in those calculations, so that is possible if Evenepoel rode more on the front.

Evenepoel more at the front than Roglic, you say. Hmmm. I feel a joke bubbling up...

 

[Berniece]

Ok then, so you accept that Pog and Vinge both produced outliers of more than 7% and 5% respectively in their last ride relative to their previous best of all the efforts in their entire careers? Bacuse that's what it would take for Remco's effort to be 3rd best performance in 21st century...

Sure, why not?

 

[bNator]

They gained a 5%+ performance boost in a single year due to advancements in nutrition? Are you joking?

Not a single year. A single day...

 

[Barkintheeye]

"Pog training under the leadership of Javier Sola from 18.11.2023 is Inigo zone 2 in combination with short intervals of 30-15 sec, 40-20 sec and 2*2 kin, introduction of TT training twice a week, engagement of a private coach in Monaco for TT position and optimization Alex Bacilli, introducing a scooter during training to simulate the pace of whatever stages he wants and then Pog does intervals after 4-5 hours behind the scooter but does intervals without the scooter (from 5-40 kin intervals), data that Sola has seen in recent years, he saw that Pog needs very little stimulation in training at the V02 max level and FTP intervals, that there is no need to exhaust him at altitude, and that is why it was decided that the Giro Serves as a work on the aerobic engine for the Tour and that altitude only stimulates additional progress of aerobic capacity, in combination with very few stimulants and Pog should be 100% at the tour and with 1-2 kg less that the giro, because altitude has that effect of pogs weight loss so far." Mou

I find this at best insufficient and at worst pure BS. A world class rider that for example beat Van der Poel at RVV in 2023 etc can improve +10% just by changing training according to above. I don't buy it. Clearly Pog has improved massively but above is not the explanation. Unfortunately the ONE thing that makes massive improvements is the one thing I just don't want to think about. I really wanted Pog to take the double and he is an amazing rider that brings great emotions to the sport. But this. Will everybody commence Keirin training and racing now???

 

[ManicJack]

"Pog training under the leadership of Javier Sola from 18.11.2023 is Inigo zone 2 in combination with short intervals of 30-15 sec, 40-20 sec and 2*2 kin, introduction of TT training twice a week, engagement of a private coach in Monaco for TT position and optimization Alex Bacilli, introducing a scooter during training to simulate the pace of whatever stages he wants and then Pog does intervals after 4-5 hours behind the scooter but does intervals without the scooter (from 5-40 kin intervals), data that Sola has seen in recent years, he saw that Pog needs very little stimulation in training at the V02 max level and FTP intervals, that there is no need to exhaust him at altitude, and that is why it was decided that the Giro Serves as a work on the aerobic engine for the Tour and that altitude only stimulates additional progress of aerobic capacity, in combination with very few stimulants and Pog should be 100% at the tour and with 1-2 kg less that the giro, because altitude has that effect of pogs weight loss so far." Mou

I find this at best insufficient and at worst pure BS. A world class rider that for example beat Van der Poel at RVV in 2023 etc can improve +10% just by changing training according to above. I don't buy it. Clearly Pog has improved massively but above is not the explanation. Unfortunately the ONE thing that makes massive improvements is the one thing I just don't want to think about. I really wanted Pog to take the double and he is an amazing rider that brings great emotions to the sport. But this. Will everybody commence Keirin training and racing now???

First time he ever motor paced was 2023. Explains everything.

 

[Berniece]

They gained a 5%+ performance boost in a single year due to advancements in nutrition? Are you joking?

Not what I said at all. I even told you specifically already of all the things that helped them this year. Pogacar got the perfect leadout for example.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Please, stop dreaming! As much as I love Remco, he will never reach Vingegaard or Pogacar's level in GT's. The gap is immense in the mountains! However I think he can win the Giro if those aliens aren't there. He just needs 2 top climbing domestiques and he will be good.

 

[bNator]

Not what I said at all. I even told you specifically already of all the things that helped them this year. Pogacar got the perfect leadout for example.

But all these factors should be taken into account when calculating power output. And as far as I know, those guys claim to be doing it, no? Otherwise, those numbers are completely wrong anyway…

 

[Berniece]

But all these factors should be taken into account when calculating power output. And as far as I know, those guys claim to be doing it, no? Otherwise, those numbers are completely wrong anyway…

We already know the numbers and their method isn't wrong, because Vingegaard said they are really close to the actual figures. But look, if you don't want to accept them, fine. I think you just have issues with Remco being so high up. To me this doesn't come as a surprise because I always understood why he underperformed sometimes, others just chose to ignore those reasons.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Please, stop dreaming! As much as I love Remco, he will never reach Vingegaard or Pogacar's level in GT's. The gap is immense in the mountains! However I think he can win the Giro if those aliens aren't there. He just needs 2 top climbing domestiques and he will be good.

lol
he would already have won the Giro last year without two top climbing domestiques and while too heavy.
Stop dreaming, that's what everybody said last year about Pogacar beating Vingegaard at the Tour ever again. It's his first Tour, he is younger he has more margin to improve, more margin to lose weight. First Bernal was going to win the next 10 years, then Pogacar, then Vingegaard, now it's Pog again. You'd think people would have learned that one year is not the same as the next and that goes for every rider.
Vingegaard is pushing better numbers than the previous years, not just on PdB. He's only 2 minutes up on Evenepoel after 2 weeks.

 

[bNator]

We already know the numbers and their method isn't wrong, because Vingegaard said they are really close to the actual figures. But look, if you don't want to accept them, fine. I think you just have issues with Remco being so high up. To me this doesn't come as a surprise because I always understood why he underperformed sometimes, others just chose to ignore those reasons.

That’s not true. I’m starting to like Remco. I admit I wasn’t sure he was a GT top dog until now but he’s been very good this TdF and I expect him to win several more GTs. If everything falls into place, even TdF is not out of reach. Hope he somehow beats Vinge this year…

 

[AmRacer]

lol
he would already have won the Giro last year without two top climbing domestiques and while too heavy.
Stop dreaming, that's what everybody said last year about Pogacar beating Vingegaard at the Tour ever again. It's his first Tour, he is younger he has more margin to improve, more margin to lose weight. First Bernal was going to win the next 10 years, then Pogacar, then Vingegaard, now it's Pog again. You'd think people would have learned that one year is not the same as the next and that goes for every rider.
Vingegaard is pushing better numbers than the previous years, not just on PdB. He's only 2 minutes up on Evenepoel after 2 weeks.

No, he wouldn't.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Ridiculous if you think about it. Third best performance of the 21st century. Third best performance of July 14th 2024.

TBH I'm not convinced by those estimations given. I'm still waiting for ammattipyroaily calculations. Judging by VAM and extrapolation from a known strava power file to me it seems 6.3-6.35 w/kg is a more likely range by Remco (still great performance OFC) vs 6.75 w/kg by Tadej (instead of 6.9-6.95 w/kg).

 

[Peyroteo94]

lol
he would already have won the Giro last year without two top climbing domestiques and while too heavy.
Stop dreaming, that's what everybody said last year about Pogacar beating Vingegaard at the Tour ever again. It's his first Tour, he is younger he has more margin to improve, more margin to lose weight. First Bernal was going to win the next 10 years, then Pogacar, then Vingegaard, now it's Pog again. You'd think people would have learned that one year is not the same as the next and that goes for every rider.
Vingegaard is pushing better numbers than the previous years, not just on PdB. He's only 2 minutes up on Evenepoel after 2 weeks.

Oh lord, I quit...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

TBH I'm not convinced by those estimations given. I'm still waiting for ammattipyroaily calculations. Judging by VAM and extrapolation from a known strava power file to me it seems 6.3-6.35 w/kg is a more likely range by Remco (still great performance OFC) vs 6.75 w/kg by Tadej.

Vingegaard basically confirmed the numbers.