It could also mean Roglic hits a super high peak, because rested early on. Remember this is a guy who with only "two weeks" prep was coming into his own in the latter stages of the Vuelta when disaster struck. So either the Tour setback was overblown, or he can find top form rather quickly.This isn't a normal winter. He's had surgery, he has not raced for longer than in regular springs, he has had to postpone his wintertraining after surgery, and he has never started this late in the year, which means his opposition will be stronger than they would have been last month.