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Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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I am not thinking all that much about it just yet. I do watch some races to see where Pogi, Jonas and Remco currently are. In reality races so far not being the ultimate test just yet. Some mild warm up. Anyway. Roglič did throw us a bone. Hinting his schedule after the Giro is not yet set in stone. Beyond that March will likely prove to be great. Pogi vs Jonas and Rogla vs Remco. Then we should have some real answers and things to debate about.

Before Vuelta 2022 Roglič said Remco doesn't have to prove anything as he has proven himself already on all terrains. So rest assured Roglič will prepare himself optimally. He is healthy and therefore is able to do so. Less racing days shouldn't be such a problem as on average you get more out of training then racing. Preparing. And on top of that he is experienced enough to compensate for the lack of some lighter warm up races. For him Catalunya will serve that purpose.
 
This isn't a normal winter. He's had surgery, he has not raced for longer than in regular springs, he has had to postpone his wintertraining after surgery, and he has never started this late in the year, which means his opposition will be stronger than they would have been last month.
It could also mean Roglic hits a super high peak, because rested early on. Remember this is a guy who with only "two weeks" prep was coming into his own in the latter stages of the Vuelta when disaster struck. So either the Tour setback was overblown, or he can find top form rather quickly.
 
The other thing, which is not being taken into consideration here, is that Evenepoel is coming off a first season and at his age, after a stellar year after a devestating setback, which means his peak should be significantly higher bar further issues. Hence, he should be even better at the Giro. By contrast, Roglic at his age should only be capable of maintaining his best condition. Whether or not that means he can topple Remco is anyone's guess.
 
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It could also mean Roglic hits a super high peak, because rested early on. Remember this is a guy who with only "two weeks" prep was coming into his own in the latter stages of the Vuelta when disaster struck. So either the Tour setback was overblown, or he can find top form rather quickly.
I think he'll start very strong, and just like Remco in 2021, he won't be able to keep up that level for 3 weeks, and will lose minutes in the last week and will finish top 5.
 
I think he'll start very strong, and just like Remco in 2021, he won't be able to keep up that level for 3 weeks, and will lose minutes in the last week and will finish top 5.

It could be the case if his base is not enough because Primoz is quick to reach racing form but any flaws in preparations will be evident in the second half of the race. I still think (or hope?) he has time to get enough training volume for the Giro.
 
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Peak roglic is still better than peak remco 2021, but remco is young and can improve. Besides that, probably roglic will crash in the first week.
Evenepoel had a relapse in january and had to stay off the bike again for 4 weeks. The physical comeback was also much more demanding than that of Roglic and he had to stay even longer off the bike in total. He also wasn't able to ride any race prior to the Giro. So obviously Roglic should be much better than Evenepoel in 2021. But still the scenario that Roglic either has to rush his form and suffers some backlash or does not quite get there in time, are not entirely out of the question.
 
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As a former Contador fan, worst case likely scenario is a bit like Vuelta 2017. Roglic shows sparks of his former self but, much like stage 6 I think in the Vuelta and stage 3 (?) of the 2017 Vuelta for Contador, he gets exposed early as no longer 100% having it consistently. I think that is a bit more likely than him being strong and falling apart at the end. I would guess he’ll be stronger at the end relative to others than at the start.
 
As a former Contador fan, worst case likely scenario is a bit like Vuelta 2017. Roglic shows sparks of his former self but, much like stage 6 I think in the Vuelta and stage 3 (?) of the 2017 Vuelta for Contador, he gets exposed early as no longer 100% having it consistently. I think that is a bit more likely than him being strong and falling apart at the end. I would guess he’ll be stronger at the end relative to others than at the start.

wasn't Contador sick when he dropped 3 minutes in the Pyrenees?
 
Won UAE Tour after being 2nd on Jabel Hafeet with a high level. Similar to Rogla in 2019. There is exactly 3 months until the queen stage to Tre Cime.
Apart from UAE, none of the races on their schedules are similar. Last year he was flying in Norway 3 months before the Vuelta.

Roglic in 2019 made the mistake of racing Romandie. And the mistake of demanding sole leadership for the Tour and going to the Giro as a result he got sick.

I think this is a pretty on schedule performance.
 
Apart from UAE, none of the races on their schedules are similar. Last year he was flying in Norway 3 months before the Vuelta.

Roglic in 2019 made the mistake of racing Romandie. And the mistake of demanding sole leadership for the Tour and going to the Giro as a result he got sick.

I think this is a pretty on schedule performance.
Norway was not part of his build up to the Vuelta. Just like being good in the Ardennes is not usually as part of a build up to the Tour.

Or do you expect him to race Catalunya at a level similar to Suisse last year?
 
Norway was not part of his build up to the Vuelta. Just like being good in the Ardennes is not usually as part of a build up to the Tour.

Or do you expect him to race Catalunya at a level similar to Suisse last year?
Is UAE already part of the Giro specific build up?

UAE is comparable to like Itzulia in a Tour de France schedule. And a lot of riders do that.

If you want a February/Giro comparison, Contador went ballistic on Hazallanas in Andalucia in 2015 the year he won that Giro.

Dumoulin was 3rd in Abu Dhabi Tour in 2017.

There's plenty of others.
 
Is UAE already part of the Giro specific build up?

UAE is comparable to like Itzulia in a Tour de France schedule. And a lot of riders do that.

If you want a February/Giro comparison, Contador went ballistic on Hazallanas in Andalucia in 2015 the year he won that Giro.

Dumoulin was 3rd in Abu Dhabi Tour in 2017.

There's plenty of others.
I don't think 3 months before the Tour queen stage is comparable to 3 months before the Giro queen stage.

10'' from the Jabel Hafeet record is different to winning on Hazallanas after gapping his competitors on the descent leading in to it (and then losing the GC on the following uphill finish).

But following the Contador example, do you expect Evenepoel to be no better in Catalunya than Contador was in Tirreno? Or is it more likely that the trajectory of his form will look like that of Rogla in 2019?
 
I don't think 3 months before the Tour queen stage is comparable to 3 months before the Giro queen stage.

10'' from the Jabel Hafeet record is different to winning on Hazallanas after gapping his competitors on the descent leading in to it (and then losing the GC on the following uphill finish).

But following the Contador example, do you expect Evenepoel to be no better in Catalunya than Contador was in Tirreno? Or is it more likely that the trajectory of his form will look like that of Rogla in 2019?
I've given multiple examples of riders winning in February before doing well in the Giro. I don't see why climbing time specifically should show the difference. I would expect Evenepoel to do well under 100% on a 10km 7% average climb after an easy, flat day.

I had a longer segment.
 

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