Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[gregrowlerson]

All this and it's just the UAE tour. Can't wait til the Giro, I had better start bulk buying popcorn.

And there's the Roglic thread.

It would be like having Rocky & Creed releases at the same time.

 

[topcat]

Hindley, Bernal, Hart all won zilch before their Giro win. You have to go back to Carapaz in 2019 to find a Giro winner who also won something beforehand, but in his case, the win didn't come early season but just before the Giro, in Asturias. Froome in 2018 also didn't win anything prior, neither did Dumoulin in 2017.

So it seems like topcat is trying to bamboozle us.

There is no known explanation for Hindley and Sky riders. They defy all logic.

 

[Ulle97]

Do you think that Remco has the ability to hold off a fully fit Roglic in the Giro?

When Roglic was approaching top form in the Vuelta, Remco seemed to be flagging..... Pandera, Sierra Nevada and he really got lucky on the Tomares stage.

 

[Berniece]

Do you think that Remco has the ability to hold off a fully fit Roglic in the Giro?

When Roglic was approaching top form in the Vuelta, Remco seemed to be flagging..... Pandera, Sierra Nevada and he really got lucky on the Tomares stage.

Because he was injured

 

[Nick2413]

Also the guys that run the numbers for LR have a tendency to tweak their numbers IMO. There is no way Yates should have a lower W/kg than Evenepoel here, as Evenepoel has a lower CdA, is heavier. Tailwind gets ignored, headwind gets taken into account to push up numbers, that sort of stuff.

I stopped paying attention to them after it came out they work for Jumbo.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Normally attacks launch at the end of the steep section and they do the easier 3km faster. I checked the Strava files and Evenepoel was like 20+ s faster than Pog on the first 3km but dropped chunks of time in the final kms.. Which basically tells me this climbing record is just because the pacing was much more aggressive.

Also the guys that run the numbers for LR have a tendency to tweak their numbers IMO. There is no way Yates should have a lower W/kg than Evenepoel here, as Evenepoel has a lower CdA, is heavier. Tailwind gets ignored, headwind gets taken into account to push up numbers, that sort of stuff.

Define "chunks of time". The only segments i saw was him being faster than Pogacar on the entire climb, so when you talk about 20s early on the climb, and he has 10s on the top of the climb... chunks of time = ~10 seconds?

Evenepoel has a lower CdA and somehow that means Yates isn't at an advantage in his wheel? What exactly are you saying? Evenepoel riding in a headwind for roughly 3km / 7 minutes with Yates in his wheel, that means Yates did not have to pull into a headwind. Logical deduction would be that Yates saves quite a few watts there. Whether those more than make up for those 10s deficit in terms of W/kg, you would need a bit more info on exact wind conditions. Yates also being small and even lighter than Evenepoel doesn't exactly prove your point either.

I stopped paying attention to them after it came out they work for Jumbo.

They don't work for Jumbo. Just Benji was offered a job there as an analyst and he has quit his job at Jumbo after only a few months.

 

[Nick2413]

They don't work for Jumbo. Just Benji was offered a job there as an analyst and he has quit his job at Jumbo after only a few months.

Is that actually true or just what he’s saying while he does it on the side indirectly purely for optics? Either way, they seem to be pretty Jumbo obsessed.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Is that actually true or just what he’s saying while he does it on the side indirectly purely for optics? Either way, they seem to be pretty Jumbo obsessed.

I don't have access to Jumbo's accounting department, so whether it is actually true, i don't know. But he posted a tweet that he gave up his position at Jumbo because he wanted to be a content creator, which is what he loves. So i assume it isn't some ploy to fool people, or he wouldn't have announced working for Jumbo to begin with. Seems a bit farfetched to start questioning such things.

 

[yaco]

Pogacar beat Yates last two times on this mountain, if I remember correctly...

In a sprint and one of the occasions, Pogacar was struggling to hang onto Yates wheel.

 

[yaco]

Is that actually true or just what he’s saying while he does it on the side indirectly purely for optics? Either way, they seem to be pretty Jumbo obsessed.

Lanterne Rouge is still working for Jumbo and has therefore deferred being a rider's agent, while Benji dropped his Jumbo gig to focus on content creation. Also note that Lotto offer Benji a gig doing tactical analysis in 2022 which he declined and passed onto Spencer Martin.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Lanterne Rouge is still working for Jumbo and has therefore deferred being a rider's agent, while Benji dropped his Jumbo gig to focus on content creation. Also note that Lotto offer Benji a gig doing tactical analysis in 2022 which he declined and passed onto Spencer Martin.

So the Australian guy is actually working for Jumbo? What exactly does he do then, as i understood he is a lawyer who turned his hobby into his job, talking about cycling.

 

[yaco]

So the Australian guy is actually working for Jumbo? What exactly does he do then, as i understood he is a lawyer who turned his hobby into his job, talking about cycling.

Video analysis and tactical strategies.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Lanterne Rouge is still working for Jumbo and has therefore deferred being a rider's agent, while Benji dropped his Jumbo gig to focus on content creation. Also note that Lotto offer Benji a gig doing tactical analysis in 2022 which he declined and passed onto Spencer Martin.

Benji Naesan tactical analysis hahahahahahahahaa ! Lol

 

[Red Rick]

Define "chunks of time". The only segments i saw was him being faster than Pogacar on the entire climb, so when you talk about 20s early on the climb, and he has 10s on the top of the climb... chunks of time = ~10 seconds?

Evenepoel has a lower CdA and somehow that means Yates isn't at an advantage in his wheel? What exactly are you saying? Evenepoel riding in a headwind for roughly 3km / 7 minutes with Yates in his wheel, that means Yates did not have to pull into a headwind. Logical deduction would be that Yates saves quite a few watts there. Whether those more than make up for those 10s deficit in terms of W/kg, you would need a bit more info on exact wind conditions. Yates also being small and even lighter than Evenepoel doesn't exactly prove your point either.


They don't work for Jumbo. Just Benji was offered a job there as an analyst and he has quit his job at Jumbo after only a few months.

Depending on where the segment starts I think they have roughly the same time for the overall climb. I think some false flat on the bottom is faster for Pogacar, then Evenepoel is 20s+ faster in the first steep segment, then lost that back on the rest of the climb. After Yates dropped him he lost time quickly on steeper sections and gained time back on the flatter sections.

They must have assumed some huge numbers for the draft Yates was getting from Evenepoel, because that number roughly computes if drafting is like 33% and, and if you then finish the same time and assume equal weight and CdA. But they don't have equal weight, they don't have equal CdA, and they did not finish in the same time.

They ignore draft and wind when it's convenient and make them really play it up when it's not. Sometimes I just laziness I guess.

 

[Valanga]

Define "chunks of time". The only segments i saw was him being faster than Pogacar on the entire climb, so when you talk about 20s early on the climb, and he has 10s on the top of the climb... chunks of time = ~10 seconds?

So Pog was 42 secs behind at some point.
But it's a bit pointless to look at it like this imho. It all depends on race dynamics, wind direction, etc. And obviously if you go slower in the first part, you can go harder in the 2nd part.

 

[theyoungest]

Geoffrey Bouchard has done the UAE Tour for a few years now, so he offers a nice benchmark. He's probably not getting much better, and not much worse either. His results on this climb:

2023: 3d on 0:42
2022: 9th on 0:53
2021: 10th on 1:09
2020: 11th on 0:47
2019: 18th on 1:04

It's all somewhere in the same ballpark. If anything this year is an anomaly because he's actually closer. Which suggests to me that the climbing performances this year weren't spectacularly good.

 

[yaco]

Benji Naesan tactical analysis hahahahahahahahaa ! Lol

You better write to Lotto and Jumbo who both wanted to use his services in 2022. Jumbo is going OK.

 

[Oldermanish]

What are you even arguing about? You claimed he got a free ride, he didn't. He only got paced the first ~1/3rd of the climb, the rest he was pulling himself into a headwind with 0 help. Furthermore, i am dismissing the importance of it being 10 s slower than Yates or 10s faster than Pogacar. I am simply countering people who are insinuating he is in way behind on schedule, bad, unimpressive, or claiming other riders who have never ridden this fast on this climb, would have made minced meat out of the competition.

No issue about his form, at all. The other speculation and insinuations are microscophically amusing but also ignoring how a hill like that is raced. We agree for the most part.
By the way; if you're not facing a headwind of significance the pack effect pretty much buffers impact on the front riders. Single file? Not so much. Strategy and consistency of pace impact the time expended more than anything.

 

[Red Rick]

So Pog was 42 secs behind at some point.
But it's a bit pointless to look at it like this imho. It all depends on race dynamics, wind direction, etc. And obviously if you go slower in the first part, you can go harder in the 2nd part.

Cool. I didn't know Strava had that feature.

I see this is only 9km, is this excluding the final 1.5km?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Cool. I didn't know Strava had that feature.

I see this is only 9km, is this excluding the final 1.5km?

If you install Strava Sauce as a browser plugin, you can alter some parameters (such as CdA, watts etc) to see how that would have affected time/performance.
This is simply the "compare" feature. If you hit the "play" button you can see both GPS marks as they move up the climb relative to each other.

 

[Andre]

there should be a university course on strava

 

[Berniece]

You better write to Lotto and Jumbo who both wanted to use his services in 2022. Jumbo is going OK.

Some people are just jealous

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulation to Remco Evenepoel for winning overall at UAE Tour.

 

[CyclistAbi]

As for the debates. In my opinion the record time came due to (UAE) drilling it the whole climb. At begining as a team and after Yates put on the pressure. Remco did took some turns. At the end Remco really went deep into red. Don't know if i seen him that far in the red in the past. Likely he wanted to win the stage. And that is on why he did it. So if he really didn't do any altitude trainings and has in between 2 to 3 kilos more weight then his optimal GT weight is. Then he is on the right track. And i do imagine he will try to win some shorter races nearing. The form looks suitable for that.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

As for the debates. In my opinion the record time came due to (UAE) drilling it the whole climb. At begining as a team and after Yates put on the pressure. Remco did took some turns. At the end Remco really went deep into red. Don't know if i seen him that far in the red in the past. Likely he wanted to win the stage. And that is on why he did it. So if he really didn't do any altitude trainings and has in between 2 to 3 kilos more weight then his optimal GT weight is. Then he is on the right track. And i do imagine he will try to win some shorter races nearing. The form looks suitable for that.

UAE didn't drill it the whole climb because they were all dropped long before halfway. The only UAE left was Yates who got in Evenepoel's wheel most of the time (he did one turn, just after Kuss was dropped) until he attacked a second time at 3k from the top. So Evenepoel didn't "take some turns", it was Yates who took exactly one turn of 55 seconds in between both his attacks.

You could go to TIZ and put both video's of the final 10k of the Jebel Hafeet stage side by side. You can start at the moment the peloton goes right on the big roundabout at the start of both videos. In the 2022 edition that is 35 seconds into the video. In the 2023 edition it is 2 minutes into the video (1m25s later in the video, in case you need to resync at some point). You will find the pace UAE set was not faster than last year until less than 1km before Yates' attack. So drilling it "the whole climb" can be reduced to drilling it less than 1k. You will also see that last year Yates and Pogacar were paced by their teammates up to ~3km from the finish, able to conserve energy for imminent attacks.

You can't compare conditions 1:1 (heat, wind, race dynamics...) so the fact that Evenepoel did the climb ~40s faster than Pogacar last year should not be seen as an absolute statement. But i do think it's clear that his effort was at the very least in the same ballpark and that there is no reason to downplay the effort as some have done in the race topic and here. Claiming Pogacar or Vingegaard would have dropped everybody here like a bad habit seems mainly based on wishful thinking.

Evenepoel himself has said he appears to be ahead of schedule, and comparing this effort to those of previous editions by other GC riders, i would tend to agree. If he already has this level, and he is targeting the Giro in just over 2 months, there is no reason to assume he will not get there in time.