Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[sam6]

Pogacar would highly likely not have won last years LBL, and not because he wouldn't be able to beat Evenepoel, but because his form was already fading as was evident in Amstel. For 3 out of his 5 monument wins, Pogacar had to win the sprint vs guys like Mas, Masnada and Gaudu. Yet somehow you think Evenepoel is overrated and wouldn't stand a chance.

Pogi would have won. Yes, his form was fading but he also won Amstel with an equally impressive solo the week before, and in that race, he had a flat for ages and for quite a while was riding with a puncture and yet he still won solo after. The time gaps are slightly bigger because Liege is harder and the riders behind were also solo in Amstel but in a group in Liege so were looking at each other, not to mention the effects of Pogi's puncture. But still, Pogi won by 38s and Remco 1m6s, fairly comparable. Then in Fleche he didn't really exert himself but still won. So Pogi was still in good form. Pogi wouldn't have matched Evenepoel in a TT on the Liege course, but he would have been able to hold his wheel fairly comfortably and outsprint him

In the Liege he won, he outsprinted Alaphillippe. He probably could have been able to drop them if he had attacked himself but he trusted his sprint instead. Masnada was only with him at Lombardia because he descended like a lunatic and Pogi took it easy. Mas was in the best form of his career and Pogi was fading big time then, yet he never looked like challenging him in the sprint. Also, sometimes if you are with someone you know you can outsprint, there is no need to try and drop them. Had Pogi not crashed last year he would have won a 2 up sprint with Evenepoel. Yes Evenepoel may have been the stronger rider, but he was not strong enough to drop Pogi and Pogi has a stronger sprint

This whole Pogi was fading (very slightly) so Remco would have won is just nonsense designed to convince yourself that the correct winner won and make you feel better about the injustice of Pogi's crash

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Pogi would have won. Yes, his form was fading but he also won Amstel with an equally impressive solo the week before, and in that race, he had a flat for ages and for quite a while was riding with a puncture and yet he still won solo after. The time gaps are slightly bigger because Liege is harder and the riders behind were also solo in Amstel but in a group in Liege so were looking at each other, not to mention the effects of Pogi's puncture. But still, Pogi won by 38s and Remco 1m6s, fairly comparable. Then in Fleche he didn't really exert himself but still won. So Pogi was still in good form. Pogi wouldn't have matched Evenepoel in a TT on the Liege course, but he would have been able to hold his wheel fairly comfortably and outsprint him

In the Liege he won, he outsprinted Alaphillippe. He probably could have been able to drop them if he had attacked himself but he trusted his sprint instead. Masnada was only with him at Lombardia because he descended like a lunatic and Pogi took it easy. Mas was in the best form of his career and Pogi was fading big time then, yet he never looked like challenging him in the sprint. Also, sometimes if you are with someone you know you can outsprint, there is no need to try and drop them. Had Pogi not crashed last year he would have won a 2 up sprint with Evenepoel. Yes Evenepoel may have been the stronger rider, but he was not strong enough to drop Pogi and Pogi has a stronger sprint

This whole Pogi was fading (very slightly) so Remco would have won is just nonsense designed to convince yourself that the correct winner won and make you feel better about the injustice of Pogi's crash

Thanks for a relatively well thought through post. Yes, Pogacar is faster in a sprint. And yes, when you know you are faster, you also know you don't have to drop others. But going to the line with a small group, including riders like Alaphilippe, Roglic, Hirschi, Valverde... (I'm talking about his 2 LBL finishes), you don't do that because you are sure to beat them in the sprint, you are doing that because you (thought you) weren't able to drop them. Because even when you might be the fastest, sprinting in a small bunch can go wrong (ask Van Aert), especially against riders who are arguably about as fast as you are.

The fact that a rider like Masnada was able to bridge the gap in the first place, shows that he was close enough to do it to begin with.

Regarding Amstel, i get the impression you either did not watch the race completely or forgot what happened? Healy was closing the gap down fast, until the race director decided to give Pogacar a hand. Had that not happened, i find it hard to believe Healy would not have bridged. Obviously, Pogacar would still have won the sprint, but it did show Pogacar was losing form a week before Liège. Also forgive me for stating that Evenepoel is a cut above Healy when it comes to these types of efforts. Which again brings us to Liège and whether he would have won in '23. Obviously we will never know, but here is my opinion on that. He would have been able to stay with Evenepoel after his attack, yes. I'm quite sure. But he would not have won, and here's why: Because unlike some other rivals, Pogacar is not a coward but a racer, and would have committed fully to the break, doing equal turns with Evenepoel. That in combination of what we saw a week earlier in Amstel, would have gassed him out. Not only does Evenepoel ride faster in a break than anybody else, he also is very small and aero, which means whoever is in his wheel still needs to push big watts, while when Evenepoel is in the other rider's wheel, he saves a lot of energy.

Also, if you acknowledge the fact that Evenepoel is able to beat basically anyone, except for (according to you) Pogacar, why would you be calling him overrated? Not seeing a lot of people here saying he is a better rider than Pogacar, so why the attitude?

 

[jmdirt]

What counts as underside? Australia? Southern hemisphere? Is Mexico far enough south?

Seriously? Who is having summer, just had nationals, just had big races? Hint: its not Mexico.

Were Men Without Hats Men at Work singing about Mexico?

 

[rghysens]

I would like to see a remco in peak shape attack from a big peloton with lots of domestiques on a flattish terrain, that could be a spectacular cat and mouse chase I think.

You can alwahs rewatch stage 2 or 3 of the 2019 tour of Germany.

 

[Berniece]

Since you are ignoring facts, which don't fit your Remco biased world view, discussing with you is pointless.

lol, just ignore the post instead of a childish reply like this

 

[rghysens]

Evenepoel was very eager to win that first race. So he is (too early) in shape. But I hope he will scale back a bit after Algarve or Paris-Nice. Otherwise it could be that he comes up short against Pogacar in Liège.

It seems that nowadays you can´t be too early in shape. Last year Vignegaard started his season with 3 stage wins and gc at Gran Camino, Pogačar with a victory in Jaen paraiso, 3 stage wins and gc in Andalucia, Roglič with some stages and gc in Tirenno. Being early in shape is rather a good sign for the rest of the year.

 

[red_flanders]

Remco is the better rider but they are the same physiologically. Mostly as he is mentally tougher. Plus Remco will have a much longer peak. But Dumoulin is the rider most similar to Remco

Also, Dumoulin was actually a really top rider at his best!! Don't dis Dumoulin!

Ridiculous statement. No one is dissing Dumoulin. Your comparison is bizarre.

Why not just celebrate a fantastic rider going on another incredible escapade early in the season instead of trying to compare him to anyone else. There's no one else like him, certainly not Dumoulin.

 

[KZD]

What wins has Remco got against Pogi in long races? The world champs in Aus but Pogi wasn't really in form then and there were idiotic tactics (marking Remco with Tratnik and then not chasing down that group??) at fault too. Remco is not explosive enough to drop Pogi so when Pogi is on form then Remco is not beating him. I would say Pogi is pretty much unbeatable in Liege when he is on top form. I think he would have won in 2020 had Alaphillippe not swerved in front of him, and this was early Pogi not like he is now who was fatigued because of the Tour. He won in 2021. In 2022 he missed because family stuff and 2023 he broke his arm. Out of all the races you would say Liege suits him best so it's very hard to beat him there. Plus Pogi will be on good form as is last race before the Giro. Pogi will win LBL this year unless he breaks his arm again

Also, there is no non-time-trial course in which top-form Remco would beat top-form Pogi. Remco hasn't got the explosiveness to drop him without idiotic tactics allowing him up the road

This argument of Pogačar was not in shape in 2022 WCRR is quite difficult to understand. He won GP Montreal two weeks before, got 6th in the WCTT one week before, got 2nd while jet lagged in the following week at Emilia and then won Tre Valli Varesine and IL Lombardia. Sure, he might not have been in his absolute peak but he was definitely in shape for the WCRR unless he magically lost his form that weekend.

It also seems that you are a little bit too confident in Pogačar's abilities in LBL. If there is one race where Pogačar is 'unbeatable' its IL Lombardia not Liège has his record shows and after Remco's impressive solo last year I am convinced he would have need to at least sprint against Remco, a rider that now has a proper sprint in his legs to make him competitive in that scenario too. My guess is that if nothing out of the ordinary happens (fingers crossed) we will watch that sprint in LBL 2024.

I see that you also mention Remco's inability to drop Colbrelli in the ECRR has an argument in one of your posts. The thing is that climb was not really steep and Colbrelli was in the shape of his life during that late season (his debut Roubaix win should be enough proof) and 2021 was clearly not Remco's best season because he had to recover from his broken leg the year before. Yet, he was still good enough to drop an out of shape Pogačar that actually tried to follow him, in route for silver...

 

[Extinction]

What counts as underside? Australia? Southern hemisphere? Is Mexico far enough south?

Anywhere it's not winter and the racing season is at peak.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Jeez; I guess MvP, Van Aert, Pidcock's cyclocross and championships don't count as wins? How about Mads Peterson, Carapaz....racing against aggressive fields? Oh....Remco didn't race those so they don't count? C'mon fans....

Did you quote the wrong post?
Because I have no idea what these guys are doing in a reply to my post about comparing Remco and Dumoulin and what you are trying to say with this?

 

[Extinction]

When Re

When Remco loses a race, then the argument is he's not prepared, having a bad day, was out of shape....
Such statements are becoming increasingly ridiculous.

When Remco gets beaten, it's because he was defeated by better riders at the time. Period. Now, we can consider the various factors that may have more or less contributed to the outcomes, just as we could with any big rider; but that won't change them.

Having said that, riders like Roglic, Pogacar and, yes, Evenepoel, have each gone through serious trials and thus have, as far as I know, not faced off on equally good standing at a major appointment. Only Vingegaard seems to have had things go pretty much without a major glitch since he smashed the Tours.

If Remco shows up at the Tour in top shape and fails to qualify as a real contender against those three, then we will have to concede his battle to win the Tour is decidedly uphill. No excludes.

Yet, until this happens -all of it- a flawless build-up and top shape at the start, and he still loses big time on a mountain stage, I'm not writing him off.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I've heard that Fatco is working on his muscle mass to impress girls in the summer and to beat Skeletor and co before the Tour even starts. His leaked, current pic:

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/pw/ABLVV84lbmuUM1UqQrewbmH1MV6_X1YL2bi96c-tudlTMys0ipSsNhRUfOZP2Ey2eLYFVYg5UNtEnRY0iKVZEX5_2h61KP2k8T0XFhLfq_6-c-kW1VF-5c2jvv10P_U81qNph_2QySDospnyCiLSY00gdbNQ0w=w960-h960-s-no?authuser=0

 

[AmRacer]

Remco fanboys are stating Remco could win one day races against MvdP and Poggi.
If Remco could train specially for that race and peaking, while MvdP and Poggi isn't at their peaks.
MvdP and Poggi wins big one day races even though they aren't at their peak level

 

[shadowrider]

I say bring it on, because any real fan of the sport wants to see the top racers in peak form slugging it out amongst themselves, and may the best man win. I for one, was most disappointed we didn't get to see a real match between them in the last two Lieges. So, hopfully we finally do this year.

I must, however, beg to differ with your opinion that Remco isn't explosive. He is, just not likely to the degree of Pogacar. However, Remco, as the Worlds ITT champ, has incredible stamina and resistence to fatigue and he can make searing attacks. Thus I hardly think the guy doesn't stand a chance against Pogi at Liege. At any rate, I'm looking forward to the competition.

In a flat sprint in Liege, Pogacar would probably defeat Evenepoel. But I don't think Pogacar and Evenepoel (both in topshape) could destroy each other in the Liege-climbs. Probably also giving the opportunity to less strong riders to come back in the final (Pogacar and Evenepoel controling each other) and jump away in the final km or outsprint Pogacar and Evenepoel.

What I think is that if Evenepoel or Pogacar (in topshape) succeed to attack and ride single during the last 20, 30 or 40 km, no one would be able to come back. Not Roglic, Vingegaard, Van Aert etc. Especially when the opponents have been beaten apart. Maybe a coalition of half a Visma-, Emirates-(of course not chasing Pogacar), Astana- or Movistar- team could.

 

[shadowrider]

When Remco loses a race, then the argument is he's not prepared, having a bad day, was out of shape....
Such statements are becoming increasingly ridiculous.

So the same the fans of Pogacar, Roglic..... write here.

 

[shadowrider]

It seems that nowadays you can´t be too early in shape. Last year Vignegaard started his season with 3 stage wins and gc at Gran Camino, Pogačar with a victory in Jaen paraiso, 3 stage wins and gc in Andalucia, Roglič with some stages and gc in Tirenno. Being early in shape is rather a good sign for the rest of the year.

 

[shadowrider]

On the condition that you build in peace and quiet

Remco fanboys are stating Remco could win one day races against MvdP and Poggi.
If Remco could train specially for that race and peaking, while MvdP and Poggi isn't at their peaks.
MvdP and Poggi wins big one day races even though they aren't at their peak level

Really ? Why didn't they won 6 or 7 monuments..... not being in topshape ?

 

[kingjr]

Today, yes Remco won by 2 minutes. It was a dominant win. However, it would only take one guy being able to hang onto his wheel for him to lose this race. That is his limitation as he is not explosive enough to drop other top riders. Even had Hirschi been on 2020 form, or close to that, then he would have won. The 2 minutes is also inflated a lot because they all knew he was going to win. Look for example at the 2021 European championships won by Sonny Colbrelli. Colbrelli was a good rider, especially in 2021, however he was not a super elite rider and yet Remco couldn't drop him on the climb as he lacked explosivity. Had that been a TT on that course, Remco would have won by 2 minutes. More riders need to have the guts to hang on his wheel as if they do they will be rewarded with wins. And yes the likes of Jan Tratnik (who Pogi marked Remco with idiotically in the Aus world championships) will not be able to do this. But the semi-elite riders like Colbrelli will be able to

Pidock managed to hang on to his wheel in LBL last year..... initially

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

In a flat sprint in Liege, Pogacar would probably defeat Evenepoel. But I don't think Pogacar and Evenepoel (both in topshape) could destroy each other in the Liege-climbs. Probably also giving the opportunity to less strong riders to come back in the final (Pogacar and Evenepoel controling each other) and jump away in the final km or outsprint Pogacar and Evenepoel.

What I think is that if Evenepoel or Pogacar (in topshape) succeed to attack and ride single during the last 20, 30 or 40 km, no one would be able to come back. Not Roglic, Vingegaard, Van Aert etc. Especially when the opponents have been beaten apart. Maybe a coalition of half a Visma-, Emirates-(of course not chasing Pogacar), Astana- or Movistar- team could.

Remco developed a pretty crazy sprint last year, maybe Pogacar would still be favourite, but it's not a landslide like one would think prior to 2023

 

[Frobisher Bay]

Were Men Without Hats singing about Mexico?

No, they were having a safety dance

 

[scribers]

Remco fanboys are stating Remco could win one day races against MvdP and Poggi.
If Remco could train specially for that race and peaking, while MvdP and Poggi isn't at their peaks.
MvdP and Poggi wins big one day races even though they aren't at their peak level

I see the prime scenario to look a lot like worlds 2023. Remco attacks but cannot gap because pog can follow and mvp can claw back with the pretenders on his wheel. With hills, essentially the same. But we haven’t seen remco vs pog in that specific scenario.

 

[seasidehiking]

You are the childish one. I am just stating the Remco is overrated and a very limited rider at the top level. When they learn to not let him get away then he will prove far more ineffective. I like Pogi as a rider yes. However, I do understand the brilliance of his rivals like Vingegaard and van der Poel and can talk objectively about them and their relative strengths and weaknesses. However, Remco is not a rival to Pogi. Remco is a better TT but there is no road race profile where Remco could beat an in-form Pogi. Remco is a top rider but he will always be one step below Elite

As long as both have not reached their physical potential these discussions are just futile since so much can happen, trained etc… so stating your opinion as facts is childish and trolling. Limited riders dont win a GT and multiple big races… who has had the better career we can only tell in 10-15yrs. As for now Pogacar does, but so much racing needs to be done. Ask Bernal if he’d thought his career would be the way it is now.

For me, as a Belgian I like Belgians winning. But equally i love good races. Therefore I appreciate Pogacar, MVDP, Vingegard winning too.

 

[Netserk]

Regarding Amstel, i get the impression you either did not watch the race completely or forgot what happened? Healy was closing the gap down fast, until the race director decided to give Pogacar a hand. Had that not happened, i find it hard to believe Healy would not have bridged.

Healy attacked Pidcock, and once his effort for that was over he didn't gain any more time. On Bemelerberg (without any car draft) he lost more time than he ever gained.

Already on the first ascent of Cauberg did Pogi thin the group down. Rode on and pulled through with a puncture for several km. Closed a 11'' gap on Kruisberg after his bike change. Then already went on Eyserbosweg immediately afterwards and dropped everyone but Pidcock, with Healy bridging up after Pidcock took the front and lowered the pace on the top of the climb. From then on Healy didn't take a pull in the group (i.e. for ~7.2 km until Keutenberg started), and he was the first to drop on Keutenberg, losing 10'' to Pogi there with an effort 14 % slower. He could then ride with Pidcock for nearly 15 km, before he attacked on Geulhemmerberg and dropped Pidcock.

I think it's pretty fair to say they had spend different levels of energy before that moment. Healy, unlike Pidcock, had not gone too deep on any climb, and was by far the rider with least wind on his nose.

Yet he only took 12'' on Pogi on the 3.7 km following his attack. He lost 18'' to Pogi on Bemelerberg, counting from the uphill part of the bikepath through the forest.

So no, I would not call lowering the gap from 32'' to 20'' during your attack when you are the freshest only to lose more than that on the next climb as "almost able to close a gap".

 

[tobydawq]

Today, yes Remco won by 2 minutes. It was a dominant win. However, it would only take one guy being able to hang onto his wheel for him to lose this race. That is his limitation as he is not explosive enough to drop other top riders. Even had Hirschi been on 2020 form, or close to that, then he would have won. The 2 minutes is also inflated a lot because they all knew he was going to win. Look for example at the 2021 European championships won by Sonny Colbrelli. Colbrelli was a good rider, especially in 2021, however he was not a super elite rider and yet Remco couldn't drop him on the climb as he lacked explosivity. Had that been a TT on that course, Remco would have won by 2 minutes. More riders need to have the guts to hang on his wheel as if they do they will be rewarded with wins. And yes the likes of Jan Tratnik (who Pogi marked Remco with idiotically in the Aus world championships) will not be able to do this. But the semi-elite riders like Colbrelli will be able to

This is straight up ludicrous.

 

[DNP-Old]

What a 1.Pro race does to a man...