Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[proffate]

Good points about how they'd ride together, very much agree. My only minor disagreement, and it's one of degrees, is your rating of Remco's odds vs Pogi in such a break. It would be quite difficult for Remco to drop him, and I think Pogi also has him (closely) in a flat sprint to the line. I'm not saying Remco can't win, he could drop Pogi at some point in the finale, but if they broke away together on the Redoute, I'd bet on Pogi to win it.

Yea, I don't think Remco drops him, I just think Pog is working harder to sit on Remco's wheel due to the size disparity. In theory this allows Remco to arrive fresher to the finish, but that's certainly no guarantee of success. I would be happy if this fantasy scenario played out at all, no matter how it ended.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I never said I wouldn’t because he has shown he is but you’re saying 10 stages in the Giro without any hard days is why Evenepoel faltered at the Vuelta which isn’t the case. Maybe Roglic can’t pull a double off in terms of winning both due to his own mistakes and crashing himself.

It's in my opinion not about 10 stages (give or take), it's about the preparation and racing as a whole. So in my opinion much more was involved than 10 stages we got to see on the TV.

 

[Oldermanish]

Did you quote the wrong post?
Because I have no idea what these guys are doing in a reply to my post about comparing Remco and Dumoulin and what you are trying to say with this?

Sorry, I did. Thought maybe you were following up this post:

DNP-Old said:
Van der Poel, Van Aert, Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic, Pidcock, Philipsen, Ganna, A. Yates, De Lie, Hirschi, Skjelmose, Almeida, Kooij, Jakobsen, Ayuso, Rodriguez, Laporte, Kuss, Vlasov combined victories this season: 0.
Evenepoel victories this season: 1.

We are not the same.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's in my opinion not about 10 stages (give or take), it's about the preparation and racing as a whole. So in my opinion much more was involved than 10 stages we got to see on the TV.

That's correct, but it's still not the reason why he bonked in the Vuelta.

 

[Extinction]

That's correct, but it's still not the reason why he bonked in the Vuelta.

He bonked in the Vuelta, because the team prioritized the IWTT. Remco himself said that was the goal. Ve bene, allright, but you can't enter the Vuelta against Visma with that in mind.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Still, Remco doesn't yet qualify as being a GT doubler and top tier at it. For that he will need to show more in this discipline. From stage hunting point of view it wasn't bad at all, from GC point of view currently no.

Currently Rogla, Jonas and up to a point Sepp can be considered members of this exclusive club. Froome i guess still needs to be acknowledged. The rest still have some work left to do, before they get an invitation.

 

[Frobisher Bay]

Currently Rogla, Jonas and up to a point Sepp can be considered members of this exclusive club. Froome i guess still needs to be acknowledged. The rest still have some work left to do, before they get an invitation.

To be fair, Remco didn't double (since he left the Giro) or intended to do so.

 

[Berniece]

Yes, rate Kuss who was gifted the Vuelta by his teammates but discredit Remco
I'll just assume you forgot Pogacar by accident.

I think he means riding 2 GT’s in one season. I don’t think Pogacar has ever done this until this year.

 

[CyclistAbi]

To be fair, Remco didn't double (since he left the Giro) or intended to do so.

Yeah, but on the other hand that still doesn't automatically give him a place in this group. Currently the bar is set rather high, you need to win one GT and podium on another in the same season. Sepp doesn't make the cut, still his 2023 season was of such nature that he deserves a honourable mention. If and when one of the riders wins 2 GTs in a season, then i still feel the bar will be set at one win and one podium, to enter this group. If by any chance two active riders achieve a GT double. Then this becomes the new standard. As for GT triple, that is just some crazy talk. Unless cycling changes fundamentally or the quality of the peloton goes to all time low.

The reason i felt it's important to discuss this is because in this day and age a GT double is taken rather lightly. Like this is something that happens often. The reality is different.

 

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Ignoring the facts that are staring you in the face, is what is becoming increasingly ridiculous. You think starting a GT a week after winning the WCC ITT on a long flat course against 85kg guys, can be done on ideal climbing weight?

Funny. See, i think you would rather not discuss these facts with somebody who actually knows what he is talking about unlike yourself. Come back any time if you actually have valid arguments.

YEs, it would have been so easy to check (or actually remember) how long after the WC ITT the Vuelta started.
And Ganna was overweight?
Btw, not the guy's fault that he isn't discussing with somebody who knows the facts, but with somebody who makes up stuff...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

YEs, it would have been so easy to check (or actually remember) how long after the WC ITT the Vuelta started.
And Ganna was overweight?
Btw, not the guy's fault that he isn't discussing with somebody who knows the facts, but with somebody who makes up stuff...

I'm sorry, you feel i misrepresented Ganna by talking about "85kg guys", when Ganna is only 83kg. Oh no, i'm so embarrassed!
And it was actually two weeks before the Vuelta? Then there is no excuse for Evenepoel, in two weeks he should definitely have been able to lose 6kg. This changes EVERYTHING and completely voids my entire argument!

 

[shadowrider]

I'm sorry, you feel i misrepresented Ganna by talking about "85kg guys", when Ganna is only 83kg. Oh no, i'm so embarrassed!
And it was actually two weeks before the Vuelta? Then there is no excuse for Evenepoel, in two weeks he should definitely have been able to lose 6kg. This changes EVERYTHING and completely voids my entire argument! The (over)weight was certainly not the problem.

During the WC TT he weighed at most 1 to 2 kg more than his GT weight. Of course not 6 kg. I know you exagerate a bit, but still.....
In two weeks he will have lost at least a kilo. But the specific preparation for the TT. That was certainly not ideal for the high mountains and the long climbs. But whether that was the reason for his failure to perform during that one stage direction Tourmalet ? He wasn't even exhausted at the top of the Tourmalet. But he just couldn't do any strenuous effort that day.The next day he was able to do that again. And he showed top form. I hope himself and his team know the reason by now. Otherwise, Evenepoel has a big problem for the Tour

 

[Netserk]

I'm sorry, you feel i misrepresented Ganna by talking about "85kg guys", when Ganna is only 83kg. Oh no, i'm so embarrassed!
And it was actually two weeks before the Vuelta? Then there is no excuse for Evenepoel, in two weeks he should definitely have been able to lose 6kg. This changes EVERYTHING and completely voids my entire argument!

Did he weigh 6 kg more at the start of the Vuelta than he did at the start of the Giro? Given how he did in the Giro time-trials, it's not clear to me why that would be necessary.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

During the WC TT he weighed at most 1 to 2 kg more than his GT weight. Of course not 6 kg. I know you exagerate a bit, but still.....
In two weeks he will have lost at least a kilo. But the specific preparation for the TT. That was certainly not ideal for the high mountains and the long climbs. But whether that was the reason for his failure to perform during that one stage direction Tourmalet ? He wasn't even exhausted at the top of the Tourmalet. But he just couldn't do any strenuous effort that day.The next day he was able to do that again. And he showed top form. I hope himself and his team know the reason by now. Otherwise, Evenepoel has a big problem for the Tour

Feel free to compare images and videos of '22 and '23 vuelta. That is no way merely a 1 kg difference. And the 6kg was obviously jokingly in reference to Vingegaard. I also don't think it is very likely to beat Ganna on a 50k* flat TT, weighing just 1kg more than your ideal climbing weight, that seems highly unlikely to me, but that is just what i believe.

I think that this is exactly why he bonked in the Vuelta. Normally, when you're either not in top shape, or tired/overraced, you will start to fade harder and harder. This didn't happen, since the very next day he was rejuvenated and rode the rest of the Vuelta like a maniac Duracell bunny. So the explanation lies elsewhere. As some other people already pointed out earlier in the thread, the symptoms (completely bonking, not being able to put power on the pedals but being completely fine the next day) were much like that of a "hunger knock". But it happened early in the stage, so it's almost impossible for it to have been due to not eating (enough) that morning or during the day.

A forum member here talked about the lack of glycogen, which is what you also experience during a hunger knock. Then Dumoulin said in a podcast that it was his belief that Evenepoel had not eaten enough the days leading up to stage 13. So in my mind, all of this makes perfect sense (and it was exactly what i feared before he went to the Vuelta). He was too heavy coming out of the WCC ITT, either tried to lose weight too fast, or/and likely even during the Vuelta. In combination with trying to keep up with his rivals, and actually burning more calories due to his weight while eating less. This explanation makes perfect sense, and i'm quite convinced this is what actually happened.

(* especially for Blue Fridge Tree i would like to point out that the exact distance was 2200 meters less than 50k)

 

[houtdffan]

During the WC TT he weighed at most 1 to 2 kg more than his GT weight. Of course not 6 kg. I know you exagerate a bit, but still.....
In two weeks he will have lost at least a kilo. But the specific preparation for the TT. That was certainly not ideal for the high mountains and the long climbs. But whether that was the reason for his failure to perform during that one stage direction Tourmalet ? He wasn't even exhausted at the top of the Tourmalet. But he just couldn't do any strenuous effort that day.The next day he was able to do that again. And he showed top form. I hope himself and his team know the reason by now. Otherwise, Evenepoel has a big problem for the Tour

he soft peddled. He hinted this was coming before the start of the Vuelta with his bizarre comment that podium with a stage win is no better than 12th and 4 stage wins.

He clearly stated he if wasn't sure of victory, he was going for stages. He soft peddled that day as well as stage 16 so he could target stages and KOM. Nothing more

 

[Blanco]

he soft peddled. He hinted this was coming before the start of the Vuelta with his bizarre comment that podium with a stage win is no better than 12th and 4 stage wins.

He clearly stated he if wasn't sure of victory, he was going for stages. He soft peddled that day as well as stage 16 so he could target stages and KOM. Nothing more

Podium with a stage win IS better than a 12th place with 4 stage wins (or to be more precise 3 wins), especially if those wins come from breakaways.
Or do someone thinks that Remco Evenepoel at Vuelta 2023. was more impressive than Kuss, Vingegaard or Roglic?

 

[houtdffan]

Podium with a stage win IS better than a 12th place with 4 stage wins (or to be more precise 3 wins), especially if those wins come from breakaways.
Or do someone thinks that Remco Evenepoel at Vuelta 2023. was more impressive than Kuss, Vingegaard or Roglic?

I'm not sure what Remco was thinking when he said that before the Vuelta. I was floored when hearing that

Unless there was some LeFevre pressure to get wins given the team drama that was ongoing

 

[Berniece]

I'm not sure what Remco was thinking when he said that before the Vuelta. I was floored when hearing that

Unless there was some LeFevre pressure to get wins given the team drama that was ongoing

It’s a way to motivate himself. Make your goals public so there’s more pressure

 

[shadowrider]

Feel free to compare images and videos of '22 and '23 vuelta. That is no way merely a 1 kg difference. And the 6kg was obviously jokingly in reference to Vingegaard. I also don't think it is very likely to beat Ganna on a 50k* flat TT, weighing just 1kg more than your ideal climbing weight, that seems highly unlikely to me, but that is just what i believe.

I think that this is exactly why he bonked in the Vuelta. Normally, when you're either not in top shape, or tired/overraced, you will start to fade harder and harder. This didn't happen, since the very next day he was rejuvenated and rode the rest of the Vuelta like a maniac Duracell bunny. So the explanation lies elsewhere. As some other people already pointed out earlier in the thread, the symptoms (completely bonking, not being able to put power on the pedals but being completely fine the next day) were much like that of a "hunger knock". But it happened early in the stage, so it's almost impossible for it to have been due to not eating (enough) that morning or during the day.

A forum member here talked about the lack of glycogen, which is what you also experience during a hunger knock. Then Dumoulin said in a podcast that it was his belief that Evenepoel had not eaten enough the days leading up to stage 13. So in my mind, all of this makes perfect sense (and it was exactly what i feared before he went to the Vuelta). He was too heavy coming out of the WCC ITT, either tried to lose weight too fast, or/and likely even during the Vuelta. In combination with trying to keep up with his rivals, and actually burning more calories due to his weight while eating less. This explanation makes perfect sense, and i'm quite convinced this is what actually happened.

(* especially for Blue Fridge Tree i would like to point out that the exact distance was 2200 meters less than 50k)

I don't agree. It was no hunger knock. He had no digestive problems. He certainly didn't weigh (way) too much at the start.The one kg excess provided punch in his first stage victory. The one kg excess would later at most cause Evenepoel to lose some time compared to Vingegaard in the long and tough climbs. But this can never be the reason why he did not make any progress on the way to the Tourmalet. Trying to lose weight too fast before and during the Vuelta would certainly have had consequences during several stages. Now he was getting stronger after the ride to the Tourmalet. Which proves that starting the Vuelta with 0.5 to 1 kg "overweight" was certainly the right choice. To get through the second half of the Vuelta well. But I think that in the Evenepoel "entourage" the cause of the crisis is well known.

The problem remains of the smaller difficult moments that we regularly saw in the past, for example in the Giro 2021 (still somewhat understandable), Tirreno, Itzulia and the Vuelta 2022. Probably because Evenepoel is not a natural climber. He climbs more based on pace and power. I don't think this is easy to change. Maybe he will become more regular in a few years. As long as he does not have that regularity in climbing, it will remain difficult to beat Vingegaard and Pogacar in a grand tour.

 

[Berniece]

I don't agree. It was no hunger knock. He had no digestive problems. He certainly didn't weigh (way) too much at the start.The one kg excess provided punch in his first stage victory. The one kg excess would later at most cause Evenepoel to lose some time compared to Vingegaard in the long and tough climbs. But this can never be the reason why he did not make any progress on the way to the Tourmalet. Trying to lose weight too fast before and during the Vuelta would certainly have had consequences during several stages. Now he was getting stronger after the ride to the Tourmalet. Which proves that starting the Vuelta with 0.5 to 1 kg "overweight" was certainly the right choice. To get through the second half of the Vuelta well. But I think that in the Evenepoel "entourage" the cause of the crisis is well known.

The problem remains of the smaller difficult moments that we regularly saw in the past, for example in the Giro 2021 (still somewhat understandable), Tirreno, Itzulia and the Vuelta 2022. Probably because Evenepoel is not a natural climber. He climbs more based on pace and power. I don't think this is easy to change. Maybe he will become more regular in a few years. As long as he does not have that regularity in climbing, it will remain difficult to beat Vingegaard and Pogacar in a grand tour.

Everyone is of course entitled to their opinion. I'm going to follow Dumoulin in this case.

 

[shadowrider]

he soft peddled. He hinted this was coming before the start of the Vuelta with his bizarre comment that podium with a stage win is no better than 12th and 4 stage wins.

He clearly stated he if wasn't sure of victory, he was going for stages. He soft peddled that day as well as stage 16 so he could target stages and KOM. Nothing more

He soft peddled on the forelast climb and on the Tourmalet. Deliberately. To lose enough time to go for stages later in the Vuelta. But the fact that, in the first difficult climb, he had to leave the wheels, not only of his opponents, but also of non-climbers and even sprinters, and lost the first three minutes, was certainly not planned.

 

[shadowrider]

Everyone is of course entitled to their opinion. I'm going to follow Dumoulin in this case.

Of course.

But when you have an opinion, you must also be able to document it. That is what is often missing in discussions here

 

[Berniece]

Of course.

But when you have an opinion, you must also be able to document it. That is what is often missing in discussions here

Sure, but Dumoulin was one of the smarter professional cyclists, who knows what he's talking about. You say:

"The problem remains of the smaller difficult moments that we regularly saw in the past"

But this doesn't "just" happen. There must be a reason for it. You don't "just" get a bad day, sometimes. There are explanations for these things. Not being a natural climber doesn't make sense to me, because what does that even mean, and why wouldn't that affect him sometimes, instead of just sometimes? Also why didn't we see this during the Vuelta of 2022?

Therefor the explanation of Dumoulin makes more sense to me, that they were trying too hard to compensate the weight gain for the WC ITT, and they made some mistakes when it comes to nutrition.

 

[Froome]

I think Remco evenepoel just had a bad day in the Vuelta 2023, just like Pogacar just had a bad day in the Tour 2023.

Remco showed good shape in the climbs, when was in the breakaways and in the first mountain stages of the race. Certainly he would be climbing with the top 10 GC guys in all the mountain stages of the Vuelta, except for the fateful day in the Tourmalet.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Of course.

But when you have an opinion, you must also be able to document it. That is what is often missing in discussions here

I think i documented and argued my point quite clearly, but maybe you missed some of it. First of all, i said it was NOT a hunger knock, but the symptoms were the same and everything adds up. You keep harking back on this 1kg, compare pictures with the pictures of '22, that's not 1kg. Also i have no idea why you keep bringing that up or where you get that from, especially considering it makes no sense. If it was a statement by Evenepoel that you are going by, then you should not. They have never been honest about his weight, and only after the facts do they sometimes spill the beans and throughout the past seasons it has been a puzzle to get an idea of his actual weight. He was definitely not going to state in an interview before the Vuelta that he was too fat and give his rivals some more ammo.