Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[spalco]

Ridiculous stuff.

I mean

Carapaz main favorite?

Lawl.

Why not Carapaz?

Though looking on oddschecker, Nibali and Simon Yates still have (slightly) better odds than Evenepoel too, but it's close.

 

[Bolder]

Ridiculous stuff.

I mean

Carapaz main favorite?

Lawl.

I think so, at this point -- he could have improved from last year -- but Ineos often sends a subpar support team to non TdF GTs. It should be a great race.

 

[Joelsim]

I can’t see past Yates this year.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Carapaz is definitely the main favorite at this point, IMO, but it's still early days. We don't have much to go on.

If Evenepoel and/or Nibali steamroll T-A then that could change. We've had some surprises already (Quintana, Adam Yates) ...and who knows maybe just maybe Simon Yates will get it right this time.

My question is how much time will Evenepoel need to gain in the TTs to win the whole race, assuming the high mountain stages will be raced as is, and at least one of the established GT specialists is "on" ?

 

[Red Rick]

Evenepoel needs to be a top 5 climber consistently to win anyway. Even if he's just slightly worse they'll be out for blood very far from the finish line on the queen stages

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Carapaz is definitely the main favorite at this point, IMO, but it's still early days. We don't have much to go on.

If Evenepoel and/or Nibali steamroll T-A then that could change. We've had some surprises already (Quintana, Adam Yates) ...and who knows maybe just maybe Simon Yates will get it right this time.

My question is how much time will Evenepoel need to gain in the TTs to win the whole race, assuming the high mountain stages will be raced as is, and at least one of the established GT specialists is "on" ?

I could see Evenepoel taking a 5 minutes on both Carapaz and Yates in the Time Trials.

Neither is a great TT’er unless it’s an uphill TT.

The Stage 14 ITT will be particularly bad for Yates and Carapaz.

 

[spalco]

5 minutes might not be enough by a factor of 10 if Evenepoel is not an elite climber (yet). And if he is, maybe he doesn't even need the TT.

 

[Red Rick]

5 minutes might not be enough by a factor of 10 if Evenepoel is not an elite climber (yet). And if he is, maybe he doesn't even need the TT.

Basically this. The range where the ITT differences matter that much is actually quite narrow.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

5 minutes might not be enough by a factor of 10 if Evenepoel is not an elite climber (yet). And if he is, maybe he doesn't even need the TT.

Sure, that ultimately the question. However absent Contador and his vacated win in 2011 no one has won the Giro by over 5 minutes since Basso in 2006.

Most of the recent deficits have been a minute or less.

Remco has a big advantage in the TT. That advantage will likely force Carapaz and Yates to push the pace, because they know that if Remco is solid and barely loses time in the mountains he’s likely to win via TT.
Remco doesn’t need to be the best climber. He just needs to stay on his bike and mitigate losses.

If he doesn’t crash/bonk/crack then he will win. Of course that if is a big one because we have nothing to base his ability in a GT on; however, he’s been in the final group each of the three mountain stages this year and finished 5th, 1st, 3rd. He’s lost 6 seconds on climbs thus far.

 

[Red Rick]

Sure, that ultimately the question. However absent Contador and his vacated win in 2011 no one has won the Giro by over 5 minutes since Basso in 2006.

Most of the recent deficits have been a minute or less.

Remco has a big advantage in the TT. That advantage will likely force Carapaz and Yates to push the pace, because they know that if Remco is solid and barely loses time in the mountains he’s likely to win via TT.
Remco doesn’t need to be the best climber. He just needs to stay on his bike and mitigate losses.

If he doesn’t crash/bonk/crack then he will win. Of course that if is a big one because we have nothing to base his ability in a GT on; however, he’s been in the final group each of the three mountain stages this year and finished 5th, 1st, 3rd. He’s lost 6 seconds on climbs thus far.

He has also not done any climbs this year that would qualify as a Cat 2 in the Giro.

 

[roundabout]

I could see Evenepoel taking a 5 minutes on both Carapaz and Yates in the Time Trials.

Neither is a great TT’er unless it’s an uphill TT.

The Stage 14 ITT will be particularly bad for Yates and Carapaz.

Here's Yates losing 3 s/km to the winner

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-d-italia/2018/stage-16

no idea why you think Evenepoel would be an additional 2 s/km faster

 

[Big Doopie]

Here's Yates losing 3 s/km to the winner

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-d-italia/2018/stage-16

no idea why you think Evenepoel would be an additional 2 s/km faster

yup, but that immense effort arguably was the cause for Yates' collapse a couple of stages later. at least that is what the Mitch Scott people wondered.

i think what we will find is that remco will largely be totally fine in the high mountains, particularly if it is many kms climb and in the 6-8% average range. if he had a team to do it, he may even gain time on that type of climb by setting a searing pace that he was the only one to survive or carry forward. i have questions about any steeper gradients, but as long as he trusts his power and does not go into the red, should be no problem, lose a few seconds.

the valid question is whether he recovers well and can last three weeks. i believe he can. i could be wrong for sure.

aside: heard the guys from cycling podcast about remco. now i love those guys but they compared him to Baronchelli who finished 2nd to Merckx in the 1974 Giro at age 20 and never won a GT. Baronchelli could not TT. and Baronchelli had nothing of the history of not just winning but destroying his opposition in the junior (or amateur) ranks. they also said that remco was nothing compared to merckx who won MSR at 20. Uh...wrong. first of all remco actually has more pro wins at his age than even, yes, Merckx. and he produced a dominant performance to win San Sebastian at 19! he is also already a dominant TTer. Merckx was good, but was not winning TTs until later. And that is what is truly scary about Remco. he actually already has the power to defeat the very best TTers in the world. and that is what is both nuts and exciting...

 

[Extinction]

Who really does?

No one indeed.

 

[houtdffan]

just a hypothetical, if the Giro were to be cancelled due to the Coronavirus, would Evenepoel go to the tour?

 

[Kazistuta]

..or would Evenepoel just be crowned winner of the Giro by default?

 

[Boes]

just a hypothetical, if the Giro were to be cancelled due to the Coronavirus, would Evenepoel go to the tour?

I don't think so. TdF is hard to combine with the olympics games and those are his main goal for this season.
He'll probably go Dauphine or something.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think so. TdF is hard to combine with the olympics games and those are his main goal for this season.
He'll probably go Dauphine or something.

Dauphine, Olympics, Vuelta I guess? Depending on results in other spring races could just yeet him in the Tour tbh if the Giro is canceled.

Can imagine Olympics being serious cancellation risk though

 

[Big Doopie]

The Dauphine? With no ITT?

Another classic GC race turned into a best climber competition.

Remco is unfortunate to come into an era where his traditional GC skills are at such a disadvantage.

 

[GVFTA]

The Dauphine? With no ITT?

Another classic GC race turned into a best climber competition.

Remco is unfortunate to come into an era where his traditional GC skills are at such a disadvantage.

What's the big deal. According to many in this thread, he doesn't need TT's to win a GT. May is going to funny around here.

 

[Rik Van Looy]

yup, but that immense effort arguably was the cause for Yates' collapse a couple of stages later. at least that is what the Mitch Scott people wondered.

i think what we will find is that remco will largely be totally fine in the high mountains, particularly if it is many kms climb and in the 6-8% average range. if he had a team to do it, he may even gain time on that type of climb by setting a searing pace that he was the only one to survive or carry forward. i have questions about any steeper gradients, but as long as he trusts his power and does not go into the red, should be no problem, lose a few seconds.

the valid question is whether he recovers well and can last three weeks. i believe he can. i could be wrong for sure.

aside: heard the guys from cycling podcast about remco. now i love those guys but they compared him to Baronchelli who finished 2nd to Merckx in the 1974 Giro at age 20 and never won a GT. Baronchelli could not TT. and Baronchelli had nothing of the history of not just winning but destroying his opposition in the junior (or amateur) ranks. they also said that remco was nothing compared to merckx who won MSR at 20. Uh...wrong. first of all remco actually has more pro wins at his age than even, yes, Merckx. and he produced a dominant performance to win San Sebastian at 19! he is also already a dominant TTer. Merckx was good, but was not winning TTs until later. And that is what is truly scary about Remco. he actually already has the power to defeat the very best TTers in the world. and that is what is both nuts and exciting...

I see that Carapaz lost almost 3 minutes to Dennis in that ITT. That's probably what he is going to lose to Remco as well.

 

[BlueRoads]

Climate change, Corona, whatever... the world may be brought to a halt, but the Remco-thread will go on smoothly...

 

[Red Rick]

Climate change, Corona, whatever... the world may be brought to a halt, but the Remco-thread will go on smoothly...

Can't wait for the Giro to be canceled so Lefevre can never shut up about how he would've won the Giro by 25 minutes.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So, confirmation his current weight is indeed 60kgs.
And his max power output has gone from 800W last year to 1100W this year.

Avec Evenepoel, la Belgique rêve d'un nouveau Merckx

La "Remcomania" a gagné la Belgique. Le jeune phénomène belge du cyclisme Remco Evenepoel, 20 ans, enchaîne les victoires depuis ses débuts chez les pros l'an passé, au point d'être déjà qualifié de nouveau Merckx.

sportmagazine.levif.be

 

[Lequack]

So you're saying he is even becoming a sprinter?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

So you're saying he is even becoming a sprinter?

I think sprinters can put out up to 1800W, so i'd say no. But obviously he's gained some punch. Pogacar for reference, also put out between 1000-1100W last year in Algarve. In UAE last week, he went over 1100W.