richwagmn said:
You're right. Technically, Lance was never busted (though the 99 TDF EPO positives are awfully hard to explain away).
I think LA's a big self promoter. Which is fine if he'd be sincere about his intentions. Who really believes he came back to cycling to raise awareness about cancer? He came back because he mistakenly believes he's better than all the current riders (though we've see no sign of that in any of his performances).
Contador's put his time in and demonstrated he deserves to lead this team. 3 GT wins at his age is nothing to sneeze at. Who the f*ck does LA think he is that he can show up and challenge Contador for team leadership? Would he have tolerated the same situation during his TDF winning years? No way in hell.
LA will NOT ride for Contador. Mark my words. As a matter of fact, I can see LA getting dropped on climbs and requiring some of the team domestiques to pace him back to the leaders (just like he did in the Giro). How is that fair to Contador? The team should be sacrificing themselves for Contador, not wasting their energy trying to salve LA's ego.
Go away LA. You had your glory years. Let Contador have his.
It's an unfortunate fact for many well-known athletes that they feel they have to come up with "noble" explanations that don't ring true ("I need security for my family", "I want to spend more time with the kids"). I think Lance's ultimate motivation is pretty apparent: like many athletes who became tired of the grind and retired prematurely, he has discovered that there is no substitute for the thrill of competition. As he discovered he still had some ability to compete, it was an irresistible attraction to return to the peloton. There are many pro athletes who have done the same thing--got burned out, retired, then after a couple of years away from the sport, realized they missed it. Not that he might not get there, but Armstrong is still far away from the embarrassment of Michael Jordan or Bret Favre.
I have trouble accepting the idea that self-promotion is the only or even the primary motivation--the training to ride a grand tour is just too damn hard to do it for a reason that shallow.
As a rule, I try to avoid speculating on personal motives, since none of us really know these guys or what they are thinking. You can only go on data: Armstrong worked as a domestique in support of Leipheimer in both the Tour of California and the Giro (I understand that is a limited comparison because they are friends and Armstrong was just getting back his conditioning). I know that back in December, Armstrong made statements that sounded as though he felt entitled to be team leader. I also know that after the Giro, he publicly stated that he was firmly grounded in reality and Contador had shown he was the strongest grand tour rider (again, limited value because they are obviously trying to put on a public front).
To break my rule about speculation, here is my conclusion of how things stand: given that he seems to be a good shape, I think Armstrong is going for a "limited Hinault"--i.e. deep down, he is hoping to find the magic that will allow him to emerge as the strongest rider and go for the win, but I don't think he will be as blatant about sabotaging his teammate as Hinault was in 1986. I think the opening TT will be crucial in that regard, as well as the first mountain stage. I think if AC demonstrates clear superiority, Armstrong will ride for him in strong support, the way he did for Leipheimer. To me, the question will be, if the performances are more equal, at what point do you risk hurting the overall team while still deciding who is the leader? Will AC be allowed to take off in the mountains, or will he be restrained until later in the race? Despite their long relationship, I expect JB to make the call for the best interests of the team, not for LA. He may have already established that by leaving Noval and Horner off the TdF squad.
It won't be boring, that's for sure.
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