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Tirreno-Adriatico 2023, March 6-12

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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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Primoz strikes again! Despite his preparations being far from optimal and clearly not being the strongest today he managed to beat all those guys at the end and win the second consecutive stage. Impressive. The wind almost killed the action on the last climb unfortunately.
 
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Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Tomorrow should be carnage with the entire GC up for grabs and lots of teams with multiple players. Basically a day to get half your team in the break as well. The murito does not lie.

I wonder a bit if Kelderman gets a shot himself tomorrow, even if it's just policing duty.
 
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JosefK

JosefK

Oct 2, 2020
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Red Rick said:
Tomorrow should be carnage with the entire GC up for grabs and lots of teams with multiple players. Basically a day to get half your team in the break as well. The murito does not lie.

I wonder a bit if Kelderman gets a shot himself tomorrow, even if it's just policing duty.
Click to expand...
It would be a great stage for Jumbo to reward a key support rider in Kelderman. Rog has already won two stages. --Not sure whether he would be too disappointed not to win another stage.
 
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T

theyoungest

Jan 11, 2010
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Red Rick said:
Tomorrow should be carnage with the entire GC up for grabs and lots of teams with multiple players. Basically a day to get half your team in the break as well. The murito does not lie.

I wonder a bit if Kelderman gets a shot himself tomorrow, even if it's just policing duty.
Click to expand...
Having Kelderman ride on the front for Roglic would be a waste. Then you might as well not have him up there on GC. He needs to go with the dangerous moves.
 
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Krzysztof_O

Krzysztof_O

Jul 7, 2013
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Red Rick said:
Tomorrow should be carnage with the entire GC up for grabs and lots of teams with multiple players. Basically a day to get half your team in the break as well. The murito does not lie.

I wonder a bit if Kelderman gets a shot himself tomorrow, even if it's just policing duty.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the GC is incredibly tight. Tomorrow could be a queen stage actually, instead of today. Leg breaking route and no strong wind to supress the action.
 
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Filippo_3467

May 2, 2019
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theyoungest said:
Having Kelderman ride on the front for Roglic would be a waste. Then you might as well not have him up there on GC. He needs to go with the dangerous moves.
Click to expand...

if everything is normal Jumbo will control the race as they have th best team and it's not even close for that course. Roglic, Kelderman, van Aert, Valter, Benoot, van Baarle, Bouwman. The course suits them perfectly.

Against that a too early move is suicide, so even the teams with multiple options will wait for the punch in the end and then it's down to Roglic if he's really at a 100%. I don't expect Castelfilardo in the GC group. But it will be a big fight in the break with van de Poel, Alaphilippe and co
 
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Monsi

Monsi

Sep 16, 2021
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Filippo_3467 said:
if everything is normal Jumbo will control the race as they have th best team and it's not even close for that course. Roglic, Kelderman, van Aert, Valter, Benoot, van Baarle, Bouwman. The course suits them perfectly.

Against that a too early move is suicide, so even the teams with multiple options will wait for the punch in the end and then it's down to Roglic if he's really at a 100%. I don't expect Castelfilardo in the GC group. But it will be a big fight in the break with van de Poel, Alaphilippe and co
Click to expand...
Tomorrow is the last chance for any GC moves since the last stage is a flat stage. I don't expect the GC riders to just simply wait for the final punch to the line where Roglic would be very hard to beat, if not unbeatable. Expect the other GC riders to pressure Roglic and Jumbo as much as possible. The parcours for ambush is there. It would be a waste if they just simply waited for the final rise to the line. I very much expect tomorrow to be a Castelfidardo 2.0 kind of day.
 
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YavorD

YavorD

Jul 8, 2017
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I'm afraid that the lack of any real gaos may lead to relatively passive racing.
However, I hope that teams with multiple options (Bora, UAE..) will try something. Movistar as well though. I don't see Mas just fighting for his top 10 spot.
 
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Extinction

Extinction

Jan 8, 2020
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YavorD said:
I'm afraid that the lack of any real gaos may lead to relatively passive racing.
However, I hope that teams with multiple options (Bora, UAE..) will try something. Movistar as well though. I don't see Mas just fighting for his top 10 spot.
Click to expand...
It's racing in Italia, wait and see. Fireworks I bet.
 
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Tonton

Tonton

May 17, 2013
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I agree that race conditions must have deterred any aggressive thoughts today, with the notable exception of Caruso. Bravo Damiano!

Now we don't have gaps, many riders are within striking distance, and what could have been a relatively easy stage with few plots may decide it all. That is, if riders attack and don't just try to survive and be eaten last by the crocoglic.

Does anyone have profiles for the last, say, five climbs?
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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Tonton said:
Does anyone have profiles for the last, say, five climbs?
Click to expand...
The last ~105 km is on a 34.2 km circuit done three times.

T06_Osimo_CIRC-1.jpg

(Whoops, I see they haven't been able to neatly lay the blue route on the roads ...)

86876c2a-4ee4-41d5-97ef-08b6d6297dcb


This is the main climb of the circuit, ~1 km at nearly 15 %:

pNM4mxQ.png


From the top of that climb (4.75 km to go) to the finish line is the same route as the stage in the 2018 Giro:

15264815035485.jpg
 
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Netserk

Netserk

Apr 30, 2011
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As you can see, it's a long circuit where it's easy to control and chase on the first half. I doubt the winning move is made with 40 km to go, and with so small gaps in the GC, you can wait for the last 6 km if you trust your legs.

While the main climb is harder than the one in the 2021 circuit (which is quite nearby), the circuit as a whole is less dense. They could easily have cut out ~10 km by turning right in San Biagio, but alternatively they could have added a part by going up to Camerano. More fundamentally, I would have done the Muro at the start of the circuit.
 
Red Rick

Red Rick

Feb 20, 2012
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Netserk said:
As you can see, it's a long circuit where it's easy to control and chase on the first half. I doubt the winning move is made with 40 km to go, and with so small gaps in the GC, you can wait for the last 6 km if you trust your legs.

While the main climb is harder than the one in the 2021 circuit (which is quite nearby), the circuit as a whole is less dense. They could easily have cut out ~10 km by turning right in San Biagio, but alternatively they could have added a part by going up to Camerano. More fundamentally, I would have done the Muro at the start of the circuit.
Click to expand...
The lesser climbs aren't that much easier compared to 2021. And 2021 had flat run into the circuit. I think the weather in 2021 was the only thinng making it harder.

Your ideal pace is just gonna be quite different on the muro, it can probably kill domestiques rather quickly apart from Van Aert who probalby can do 4 laps.
 
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