Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I've been checking the results from the Vuelta 2015 again.

Dumoulin's performances in multi mountain stages where quite consistent with his performances on the bigger uniclimb stages in the 2015 Vuelta. He was 8th and 7th of the GC men in the 2 queen stages. Even on the stage where he 'cracked' he was dropped by about 6 GC riders, and then rode solo against a cooperating group of 5 riders.

He was 12th, 10th and 10th in the Cat 1 uniclimb stages, and did damage himself on the murito's in the first 9 days.

I don't think Dumoulin's climbing is that much worse on multi mountain stages. I think that altitude is the bigger question

The race situation is completely different to the Vuelta. No-one was riding against Dumoulin in the Vuelta multi-mountain stages, until the last one - where he lost huge time. Quintana, Aru and Purito were all just looking at each other and riding really cautiously up until the final climb. None of them were prepared to go hard on an earlier climb and risk being counter-attacked by another climber.

This time everyone will ride against Dumoulin, and look to drop him early on any one of the five consecutive multi-mountain stages. We know he can time trial very well up a MTF when he paces himself. But on the earlier climbs, when he simply has to stay on the wheel of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, even when they ride at an inconsistent pace to try to break him, he will be really tested. And he has to do that for five days in a row. He's going to crack at some point; the question is whether or not his team can limit the damage enough.

I don't think the conservative racing on those MTF changed much in what placing Dumoulin got relative to the other GC riders. I think it just made the time gaps smaller

However, it's completely different. He's climbing way better than back then. Only one rider is clearly better on huge climbs. Doesn't seem like he'll get dropped by a whole group of them. Doesn't seem that he'll be dropped by domestiques. Quintana might drop him, but I don't think he'll be left behind by everyone who matters.

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

I've been checking the results from the Vuelta 2015 again.

Dumoulin's performances in multi mountain stages where quite consistent with his performances on the bigger uniclimb stages in the 2015 Vuelta. He was 8th and 7th of the GC men in the 2 queen stages. Even on the stage where he 'cracked' he was dropped by about 6 GC riders, and then rode solo against a cooperating group of 5 riders.

He was 12th, 10th and 10th in the Cat 1 uniclimb stages, and did damage himself on the murito's in the first 9 days.

I don't think Dumoulin's climbing is that much worse on multi mountain stages. I think that altitude is the bigger question

The race situation is completely different to the Vuelta. No-one was riding against Dumoulin in the Vuelta multi-mountain stages, until the last one - where he lost huge time. Quintana, Aru and Purito were all just looking at each other and riding really cautiously up until the final climb. None of them were prepared to go hard on an earlier climb and risk being counter-attacked by another climber.

This time everyone will ride against Dumoulin, and look to drop him early on any one of the five consecutive multi-mountain stages. We know he can time trial very well up a MTF when he paces himself. But on the earlier climbs, when he simply has to stay on the wheel of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, even when they ride at an inconsistent pace to try to break him, he will be really tested. And he has to do that for five days in a row. He's going to crack at some point; the question is whether or not his team can limit the damage enough.

Not everyone. Only Quintana and Nibali are a given for a race against him. All the others will race for podium and placements. and racing for placements usually translates into racing against the attacker.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I've been checking the results from the Vuelta 2015 again.

Dumoulin's performances in multi mountain stages where quite consistent with his performances on the bigger uniclimb stages in the 2015 Vuelta. He was 8th and 7th of the GC men in the 2 queen stages. Even on the stage where he 'cracked' he was dropped by about 6 GC riders, and then rode solo against a cooperating group of 5 riders.

He was 12th, 10th and 10th in the Cat 1 uniclimb stages, and did damage himself on the murito's in the first 9 days.

I don't think Dumoulin's climbing is that much worse on multi mountain stages. I think that altitude is the bigger question

The race situation is completely different to the Vuelta. No-one was riding against Dumoulin in the Vuelta multi-mountain stages, until the last one - where he lost huge time. Quintana, Aru and Purito were all just looking at each other and riding really cautiously up until the final climb. None of them were prepared to go hard on an earlier climb and risk being counter-attacked by another climber.

This time everyone will ride against Dumoulin, and look to drop him early on any one of the five consecutive multi-mountain stages. We know he can time trial very well up a MTF when he paces himself. But on the earlier climbs, when he simply has to stay on the wheel of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, even when they ride at an inconsistent pace to try to break him, he will be really tested. And he has to do that for five days in a row. He's going to crack at some point; the question is whether or not his team can limit the damage enough.

I don't think the conservative racing on those MTF changed much in what placing Dumoulin got relative to the other GC riders. I think it just made the time gaps smaller

However, it's completely different. He's climbing way better than back then. Only one rider is clearly better on huge climbs. Doesn't seem like he'll get dropped by a whole group of them. Doesn't seem that he'll be dropped by domestiques. Quintana might drop him, but I don't think he'll be left behind by everyone who matters.

You might be right, we'll see I guess. I just think it's still too early to know if his climbing has really improved that much, or whether he's just had perfect stages for him so far where he's been able to ride all the hard climbs at his own steady pace and while fresh after easy days/stages. I guess Movistar will try to do what Astana did in the Vuelta, on five consecutive stages if necessary. I think it would be a huge ask even for someone like Froome to hold on in those circumstances if he had a team as weak as Sunweb.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I've been checking the results from the Vuelta 2015 again.

Dumoulin's performances in multi mountain stages where quite consistent with his performances on the bigger uniclimb stages in the 2015 Vuelta. He was 8th and 7th of the GC men in the 2 queen stages. Even on the stage where he 'cracked' he was dropped by about 6 GC riders, and then rode solo against a cooperating group of 5 riders.

He was 12th, 10th and 10th in the Cat 1 uniclimb stages, and did damage himself on the murito's in the first 9 days.

I don't think Dumoulin's climbing is that much worse on multi mountain stages. I think that altitude is the bigger question

The race situation is completely different to the Vuelta. No-one was riding against Dumoulin in the Vuelta multi-mountain stages, until the last one - where he lost huge time. Quintana, Aru and Purito were all just looking at each other and riding really cautiously up until the final climb. None of them were prepared to go hard on an earlier climb and risk being counter-attacked by another climber.

This time everyone will ride against Dumoulin, and look to drop him early on any one of the five consecutive multi-mountain stages. We know he can time trial very well up a MTF when he paces himself. But on the earlier climbs, when he simply has to stay on the wheel of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, even when they ride at an inconsistent pace to try to break him, he will be really tested. And he has to do that for five days in a row. He's going to crack at some point; the question is whether or not his team can limit the damage enough.

Not everyone. Only Quintana and Nibali are a given for a race against him. All the others will race for podium and placements. and racing for placements usually translates into racing against the attacker.

That's true - although it was interesting to see Zakarin refuse to work with Dumoulin yesterday when Quintana looked under a bit of pressure at the top of the climb. Maybe he was just on the limit though on that occasion.

In a way though it doesn't really matter if its only Quintana and Nibali working against Dumoulin. Those two will still change the pace up to make it hard for Dumoulin, and even if Mollema or Zakarin or whoever else works to close down the gap, Dumoulin will still have to change up his pace as well. He just won't be able to TT up the early climbs in a multi-mountain stage. Whether or not he can do that throughout a stage and then still be strong on the last climb. And do that on consecutive days without cracking, is still a huge question mark for me.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

A wee bit frivolous but how do you actually pronounce big Tam's surname in English. In my head, I've always given it a French pronunciation for some reason (do moi lain) and I don't think anyone on ES has got it right either as they all pronounce it a wee bit differently. Can we have a definitive for us non Dutch speakers?

We pronounce it similar to the French way
Here's a Dutch forvo
https://nl.forvo.com/word/tom_dumoulin/
Except I would pronounce the n at the end, it's not how the French do it, but hey he's not French

 

[mavmav]

Re: Re:

I've been checking the results from the Vuelta 2015 again.

Dumoulin's performances in multi mountain stages where quite consistent with his performances on the bigger uniclimb stages in the 2015 Vuelta. He was 8th and 7th of the GC men in the 2 queen stages. Even on the stage where he 'cracked' he was dropped by about 6 GC riders, and then rode solo against a cooperating group of 5 riders.

He was 12th, 10th and 10th in the Cat 1 uniclimb stages, and did damage himself on the murito's in the first 9 days.

I don't think Dumoulin's climbing is that much worse on multi mountain stages. I think that altitude is the bigger question

The race situation is completely different to the Vuelta. No-one was riding against Dumoulin in the Vuelta multi-mountain stages, until the last one - where he lost huge time. Quintana, Aru and Purito were all just looking at each other and riding really cautiously up until the final climb. None of them were prepared to go hard on an earlier climb and risk being counter-attacked by another climber.

This time everyone will ride against Dumoulin, and look to drop him early on any one of the five consecutive multi-mountain stages. We know he can time trial very well up a MTF when he paces himself. But on the earlier climbs, when he simply has to stay on the wheel of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, even when they ride at an inconsistent pace to try to break him, he will be really tested. And he has to do that for five days in a row. He's going to crack at some point; the question is whether or not his team can limit the damage enough.

You're rewriting history here...

Dumoulin lost time every single day with a MTF apart from the shorter, more explosive ones in the first week. And there were some stages like Oropa and Blockhaus in that Vuelta. Stages 14 and 15 for instance. Dumoulin stayed in touch with the guys in front but was a fringe top 10 rider on those climbs. And it's even more telling that Dumoulin lost that time on guys who, as you say, were hardly trying. Now he's beating them while they are trying...

And the whole "he cracked hard on that final stage" is pure myth. He didn't. He lost that GC by 10, 15 seconds on top of the Morcuera. And it's not even those seconds alone that did him in. It's the fact that just about every top 10 GC rider dropped him. He got isolated in the worst possible way. It was a perfect storm for Aru that day. He wasn't strong enough to beat Dumoulin man-to-man, but everything fell into place for him.


Dumoulin could still easily lose this race, but let's not frame history to predict it...

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

I've been checking the results from the Vuelta 2015 again.

Dumoulin's performances in multi mountain stages where quite consistent with his performances on the bigger uniclimb stages in the 2015 Vuelta. He was 8th and 7th of the GC men in the 2 queen stages. Even on the stage where he 'cracked' he was dropped by about 6 GC riders, and then rode solo against a cooperating group of 5 riders.

He was 12th, 10th and 10th in the Cat 1 uniclimb stages, and did damage himself on the murito's in the first 9 days.

I don't think Dumoulin's climbing is that much worse on multi mountain stages. I think that altitude is the bigger question

The race situation is completely different to the Vuelta. No-one was riding against Dumoulin in the Vuelta multi-mountain stages, until the last one - where he lost huge time. Quintana, Aru and Purito were all just looking at each other and riding really cautiously up until the final climb. None of them were prepared to go hard on an earlier climb and risk being counter-attacked by another climber.

This time everyone will ride against Dumoulin, and look to drop him early on any one of the five consecutive multi-mountain stages. We know he can time trial very well up a MTF when he paces himself. But on the earlier climbs, when he simply has to stay on the wheel of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, even when they ride at an inconsistent pace to try to break him, he will be really tested. And he has to do that for five days in a row. He's going to crack at some point; the question is whether or not his team can limit the damage enough.

I don't think the conservative racing on those MTF changed much in what placing Dumoulin got relative to the other GC riders. I think it just made the time gaps smaller

However, it's completely different. He's climbing way better than back then. Only one rider is clearly better on huge climbs. Doesn't seem like he'll get dropped by a whole group of them. Doesn't seem that he'll be dropped by domestiques. Quintana might drop him, but I don't think he'll be left behind by everyone who matters.

And even this one is not much better for now...

 

[TomekA]

I just rewatched stage 9 Vuelta 2015 (Froome vs Dumoulin), amazing stuff. Easier climb than Oropa but still...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uXd1j8yLXo

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I've been checking the results from the Vuelta 2015 again.

Dumoulin's performances in multi mountain stages where quite consistent with his performances on the bigger uniclimb stages in the 2015 Vuelta. He was 8th and 7th of the GC men in the 2 queen stages. Even on the stage where he 'cracked' he was dropped by about 6 GC riders, and then rode solo against a cooperating group of 5 riders.

He was 12th, 10th and 10th in the Cat 1 uniclimb stages, and did damage himself on the murito's in the first 9 days.

I don't think Dumoulin's climbing is that much worse on multi mountain stages. I think that altitude is the bigger question

The race situation is completely different to the Vuelta. No-one was riding against Dumoulin in the Vuelta multi-mountain stages, until the last one - where he lost huge time. Quintana, Aru and Purito were all just looking at each other and riding really cautiously up until the final climb. None of them were prepared to go hard on an earlier climb and risk being counter-attacked by another climber.

This time everyone will ride against Dumoulin, and look to drop him early on any one of the five consecutive multi-mountain stages. We know he can time trial very well up a MTF when he paces himself. But on the earlier climbs, when he simply has to stay on the wheel of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, even when they ride at an inconsistent pace to try to break him, he will be really tested. And he has to do that for five days in a row. He's going to crack at some point; the question is whether or not his team can limit the damage enough.

You're rewriting history here...

Dumoulin lost time every single day with a MTF apart from the shorter, more explosive ones in the first week. And there were some stages like Oropa and Blockhaus in that Vuelta. Stages 14 and 15 for instance. Dumoulin stayed in touch with the guys in front but was a fringe top 10 rider on those climbs. And it's even more telling that Dumoulin lost that time on guys who, as you say, were hardly trying. Now he's beating them while they are trying...

And the whole "he cracked hard on that final stage" is pure myth. He didn't. He lost that GC by 10, 15 seconds on top of the Morcuera. And it's not even those seconds alone that did him in. It's the fact that just about every top 10 GC rider dropped him. He got isolated in the worst possible way. It was a perfect storm for Aru that day. He wasn't strong enough to beat Dumoulin man-to-man, but everything fell into place for him.


Dumoulin could still easily lose this race, but let's not frame history to predict it...

Yeah, that's pretty much what cracking hard is. You can call it something different if you want, but losing 5+ minutes on a stage with cimbs as easy as that last Vuelta stage is cracking hard. Getting dropped on the penulitmate climb of the day and not being able to get back on during the descent is cracking hard.

It was hardly a perfect storm; it was a good, but fairly simple, tactical plan by Astana to take advantage of Dumoulin's weaknesses. Whether he has improved enough to fight against that this time is debatable; whether or not he can fight against it on five consecutive stages is still very doubtful imo.

 

[rick james]

Re:

A wee bit frivolous but how do you actually pronounce big Tam's surname in English. In my head, I've always given it a French pronunciation for some reason (do moi lain) and I don't think anyone on ES has got it right either as they all pronounce it a wee bit differently. Can we have a definitive for us non Dutch speakers?

but with a mad Fife twang or a upper class Edinbugger accent :lol:

 

[mavmav]

Re: Re:

I've been checking the results from the Vuelta 2015 again.

Dumoulin's performances in multi mountain stages where quite consistent with his performances on the bigger uniclimb stages in the 2015 Vuelta. He was 8th and 7th of the GC men in the 2 queen stages. Even on the stage where he 'cracked' he was dropped by about 6 GC riders, and then rode solo against a cooperating group of 5 riders.

He was 12th, 10th and 10th in the Cat 1 uniclimb stages, and did damage himself on the murito's in the first 9 days.

I don't think Dumoulin's climbing is that much worse on multi mountain stages. I think that altitude is the bigger question

The race situation is completely different to the Vuelta. No-one was riding against Dumoulin in the Vuelta multi-mountain stages, until the last one - where he lost huge time. Quintana, Aru and Purito were all just looking at each other and riding really cautiously up until the final climb. None of them were prepared to go hard on an earlier climb and risk being counter-attacked by another climber.

This time everyone will ride against Dumoulin, and look to drop him early on any one of the five consecutive multi-mountain stages. We know he can time trial very well up a MTF when he paces himself. But on the earlier climbs, when he simply has to stay on the wheel of the likes of Quintana and Nibali, even when they ride at an inconsistent pace to try to break him, he will be really tested. And he has to do that for five days in a row. He's going to crack at some point; the question is whether or not his team can limit the damage enough.

You're rewriting history here...

Dumoulin lost time every single day with a MTF apart from the shorter, more explosive ones in the first week. And there were some stages like Oropa and Blockhaus in that Vuelta. Stages 14 and 15 for instance. Dumoulin stayed in touch with the guys in front but was a fringe top 10 rider on those climbs. And it's even more telling that Dumoulin lost that time on guys who, as you say, were hardly trying. Now he's beating them while they are trying...

And the whole "he cracked hard on that final stage" is pure myth. He didn't. He lost that GC by 10, 15 seconds on top of the Morcuera. And it's not even those seconds alone that did him in. It's the fact that just about every top 10 GC rider dropped him. He got isolated in the worst possible way. It was a perfect storm for Aru that day. He wasn't strong enough to beat Dumoulin man-to-man, but everything fell into place for him.


Dumoulin could still easily lose this race, but let's not frame history to predict it...

Yeah, that's pretty much what cracking hard is. You can call it something different if you want, but losing 5+ minutes on a stage with cimbs as easy as that last Vuelta stage is cracking hard. Getting dropped on the penulitmate climb of the day and not being able to get back on during the descent is cracking hard.

It was hardly a perfect storm; it was a good, but fairly simple, tactical plan by Astana to take advantage of Dumoulin's weaknesses. Whether he has improved enough to fight against that this time is debatable; whether or not he can fight against it on five consecutive stages is still very doubtful imo.

If you take context away and simply say: "he lost 5 minutes so he cracked hard" then I guess you're right. But it's a simpleton argument. Every single rider, including Aru, would have lost minutes in the situation that Dumoulin ended up in at the bottom of the descent. And again. If Aru goes over the top by himself and Dumoulin was still with all the other GC men Dumoulin might very well have won that Vuelta.



In the mean time Movistar isn't nearly the team that Astana was and Sunweb isn't as much of a pushover in this Giro. I don't think Movistar has the strength to put men in the breakaway, at the same time prevent Sunweb to do the same ánd have guys left to isolate Dumoulin. In 2015 Astana could do all 3 with energy to spare...

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

If you take context away and simply say: "he lost 5 minutes so he cracked hard" then I guess you're right. But it's a simpleton argument. Every single rider, including Aru, would have lost minutes in the situation that Dumoulin ended up in at the bottom of the descent. And again. If Aru goes over the top by himself and Dumoulin was still with all the other GC men Dumoulin might very well have won that Vuelta.

In the mean time Movistar isn't nearly the team that Astana was and Sunweb isn't as much of a pushover in this Giro. I don't think Movistar has the strength to put men in the breakaway, at the same time prevent Sunweb to do the same ánd have guys left to isolate Dumoulin. In 2015 Astana could do all 3 with energy to spare...

Well yeah, but if you can't follow the one wheel you have to on the penultimate climb of the day, with about 6% gradients, when nearly all the other GC riders can follow quite easily, then that is essentially cracking.

And that's the issue he may well have this year; you have to follow wheels on the early climbs of the day, you can't just TT up them ignoring everyone else like on the final climb. He couldn't follow in the Vuelta. He didn't follow Quintana, Nibali and Pinot on Blockhaus. Will he be able to on five consecutive mountain stages?

 

[Netserk]

According to your definition of 'cracking', how many riders cracked on this stage? http://cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=5434

And please, when everyone know it is go time, it doesn't matter *** whether or not it is the last or second last climb.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

you have to follow wheels on the early climbs of the day, you can't just TT up them ignoring everyone else like on the final climb. He couldn't follow in the Vuelta. He didn't follow Quintana, Nibali and Pinot on Blockhaus. Will he be able to on five consecutive mountain stages?

he isn't even trying to follow quintana or pinot. dimoulin got used to a diesel climbing work and thus far it's paying off. one thing is he couldn't and absolutely other one is he didn't (need to). if I were Nairo I'd fear Dimolin, Pinot and Nibali working together to claw him back. pretty sure, pinot, mollema and nibali would gladly join quintana's and zakarin's attack on oropa in case they could but they didnt.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

If you take context away and simply say: "he lost 5 minutes so he cracked hard" then I guess you're right. But it's a simpleton argument. Every single rider, including Aru, would have lost minutes in the situation that Dumoulin ended up in at the bottom of the descent. And again. If Aru goes over the top by himself and Dumoulin was still with all the other GC men Dumoulin might very well have won that Vuelta.

In the mean time Movistar isn't nearly the team that Astana was and Sunweb isn't as much of a pushover in this Giro. I don't think Movistar has the strength to put men in the breakaway, at the same time prevent Sunweb to do the same ánd have guys left to isolate Dumoulin. In 2015 Astana could do all 3 with energy to spare...

Well yeah, but if you can't follow the one wheel you have to on the penultimate climb of the day, with about 6% gradients, when nearly all the other GC riders can follow quite easily, then that is essentially cracking.

And that's the issue he may well have this year; you have to follow wheels on the early climbs of the day, you can't just TT up them ignoring everyone else like on the final climb. He couldn't follow in the Vuelta. He didn't follow Quintana, Nibali and Pinot on Blockhaus. Will he be able to on five consecutive mountain stages?

Aru cracked Dumoulin in the ramp at 10% in the last km of Morcuera.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

If you take context away and simply say: "he lost 5 minutes so he cracked hard" then I guess you're right. But it's a simpleton argument. Every single rider, including Aru, would have lost minutes in the situation that Dumoulin ended up in at the bottom of the descent. And again. If Aru goes over the top by himself and Dumoulin was still with all the other GC men Dumoulin might very well have won that Vuelta.

In the mean time Movistar isn't nearly the team that Astana was and Sunweb isn't as much of a pushover in this Giro. I don't think Movistar has the strength to put men in the breakaway, at the same time prevent Sunweb to do the same ánd have guys left to isolate Dumoulin. In 2015 Astana could do all 3 with energy to spare...

Well yeah, but if you can't follow the one wheel you have to on the penultimate climb of the day, with about 6% gradients, when nearly all the other GC riders can follow quite easily, then that is essentially cracking.

And that's the issue he may well have this year; you have to follow wheels on the early climbs of the day, you can't just TT up them ignoring everyone else like on the final climb. He couldn't follow in the Vuelta. He didn't follow Quintana, Nibali and Pinot on Blockhaus. Will he be able to on five consecutive mountain stages?

Aru cracked Dumoulin in the ramp at 10% in the last km of Morcuera.

Exactly! Thank you.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

If you take context away and simply say: "he lost 5 minutes so he cracked hard" then I guess you're right. But it's a simpleton argument. Every single rider, including Aru, would have lost minutes in the situation that Dumoulin ended up in at the bottom of the descent. And again. If Aru goes over the top by himself and Dumoulin was still with all the other GC men Dumoulin might very well have won that Vuelta.

In the mean time Movistar isn't nearly the team that Astana was and Sunweb isn't as much of a pushover in this Giro. I don't think Movistar has the strength to put men in the breakaway, at the same time prevent Sunweb to do the same ánd have guys left to isolate Dumoulin. In 2015 Astana could do all 3 with energy to spare...

Well yeah, but if you can't follow the one wheel you have to on the penultimate climb of the day, with about 6% gradients, when nearly all the other GC riders can follow quite easily, then that is essentially cracking.

And that's the issue he may well have this year; you have to follow wheels on the early climbs of the day, you can't just TT up them ignoring everyone else like on the final climb. He couldn't follow in the Vuelta. He didn't follow Quintana, Nibali and Pinot on Blockhaus. Will he be able to on five consecutive mountain stages?

Aru cracked Dumoulin in the ramp at 10% in the last km of Morcuera.

Exactly! Thank you.

10% > 6%. Aru got 20 seconds at the summit. Those 20 seconds were reduced to 9 at the end of the descent in Rascafría. From then on it was Aru drafting two teammates in Cotos (5%) vs Dumoulin alone. I can't see anyone taking advantage of dratfing up the slopes of Stelvio or Umbrail.

 

[dacooley]

if i recall correctly dimoulin didn't crack uphill on the penultimate climb back then. he was losing about 20 sec on the summit, could reduce the gap to 8' on the descent at one point but then started losing time gradually and had to give up. once the the deficit got 30'', he was doomed. no rider is able to claw back a group of 15-20 riders by himself. any rider would've lost the race in that situation.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

If you take context away and simply say: "he lost 5 minutes so he cracked hard" then I guess you're right. But it's a simpleton argument. Every single rider, including Aru, would have lost minutes in the situation that Dumoulin ended up in at the bottom of the descent. And again. If Aru goes over the top by himself and Dumoulin was still with all the other GC men Dumoulin might very well have won that Vuelta.

In the mean time Movistar isn't nearly the team that Astana was and Sunweb isn't as much of a pushover in this Giro. I don't think Movistar has the strength to put men in the breakaway, at the same time prevent Sunweb to do the same ánd have guys left to isolate Dumoulin. In 2015 Astana could do all 3 with energy to spare...

Well yeah, but if you can't follow the one wheel you have to on the penultimate climb of the day, with about 6% gradients, when nearly all the other GC riders can follow quite easily, then that is essentially cracking.

And that's the issue he may well have this year; you have to follow wheels on the early climbs of the day, you can't just TT up them ignoring everyone else like on the final climb. He couldn't follow in the Vuelta. He didn't follow Quintana, Nibali and Pinot on Blockhaus. Will he be able to on five consecutive mountain stages?

Aru cracked Dumoulin in the ramp at 10% in the last km of Morcuera.

Exactly! Thank you.

10% > 6%. Aru got 20 seconds at the summit. Those 20 seconds were reduced to 9 at the end of the descent in Rascafría. From then on it was Aru drafting two teammates in Cotos (5%) vs Dumoulin alone. I can't see anyone taking advantage of dratfing up the slopes of Stelvio or Umbrail.

Well yeah, of course a 6% average climb has a few slightly steeper sections in it. That goes without saying. The fact is Dumoulin cracked. He said himself, even if he'd have got back on in the valley he would have been dropped hard on the final climb. It's laughable to claim that Aru gained 5 minutes on Cotos just because he was drafting behind his teammates. He gained the time because Dumoulin was on his limit on the Morcuera, cracked and then absolutely blew up on the final climb.

 

[dacooley]

sorry, dfa123, but sometimes i feel like you have some unconscious distaste for allrounders without a strong climbing dominant like dimoulin / froome. sorry in advance, hopefully i'm wrong.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Dumoulin even said so today. That he cracked in the Vuelta and lost 7 minutes in a day. He says that can happen here any time and even more easily than in the Vuelta.

He himself doesn't know wether he will do as well in week 3. It's a total question mark. But, it's wrong to just go back to the Vuelta 2015 everytime, because it's not the same Dumoulin. And that's what's a bit strange about your comparisons DFA. The Dumoulin of the vuelta 2015 was barely hanging on for dear life when the favorites were going easy and then finished 10th of the gc men at 30 seconds on most climbs.

The dumoulin of 2017 kept a Quintana who went at 6km on Blockhaus to 24 seconds, and beat him and Oropa. I'm sorry but the dumoulin of 2015 would never be able to do that

 

[DFA123]

Re:

if i recall correctly dimoulin didn't crack uphill on the penultimate climb back then. he was losing about 20 sec on the summit, could reduce the gap to 8' on the descent at one point but then started losing time gradually and had to give up. once the the deficit got 30'', he was doomed. no rider is able to claw back a group of 15-20 riders by himself. any rider would've lost the race in that situation.

Well, yeah that's exactly the issue that's important; he couldn't follow the attacks on the Morcuera. Even though all the other GC riders could. He cracked on a pretty easy climb because he couldn't respond to the accelerations; then, he was going backwards on the final climb and tumbled off the podium.

And that's his big weakness. He doesn't like changes of pace on a climb. Which is fine on a MTF after a flat stage when you can let riders go, but is a huge issue in multi-mountain stages when the other GC guys will all be looking to drop him like a stone early in the race.

So far we've only had about 25% of the high mountains that we'll have this Giro; 75% are crammed into the next five stages. Astana only needed one stage to pinpoint his weakness and execute a simple plan to destroy him. Movistar and Bahrain have five opportunities.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

sorry, dfa123, but sometimes i feel like you have some unconscious distaste for allrounders without a strong climbing dominant like dimoulin / froome. sorry in advance, hopefully i'm wrong.

No problem, fair enough. I don't think I do, but then it wouldn't be an unconscious distate if I did. I actually like Dumoulin and it would be great to see him push Quintana all the way and even beat him. Because it's a little dull just having Quintana and Froome on a different level to everyone else right now. I just don't believe in his chances though, and just can't see anything other than him cracking hard in this last week. For me, all the history and logic still point to this race being Quintana's with an outside chance for Nibali.

Incidentally, Froome on the other hand I don't really like. Largely because of his team. But there's no denying he's been the strongest GC rider in the world for a few years now.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Dumoulin even said so today. That he cracked in the Vuelta and lost 7 minutes in a day. He says that can happen here any time and even more easily than in the Vuelta.

He himself doesn't know wether he will do as well in week 3. It's a total question mark. But, it's wrong to just go back to the Vuelta 2015 everytime, because it's not the same Dumoulin. And that's what's a bit strange about your comparisons DFA. The Dumoulin of the vuelta 2015 was barely hanging on for dear life when the favorites were going easy and then finished 10th of the gc men at 30 seconds on most climbs.

The dumoulin of 2017 kept a Quintana who went at 6km on Blockhaus to 24 seconds, and beat him and Oropa. I'm sorry but the dumoulin of 2015 would never be able to do that

I think this is where we differ. I'm not convinced he is so different to he was in that race; I just think he's had perfect stages for his climbing style so far. And he's also up against a couple of riders way better than anything that was in that Vuelta. Not long to find out now though.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yeah, it doesnt make much sense to go on and on about that - we get to see how good he really is now, high mountains, 3rd week. He has some things going for him, but he is up against two GT-specialists who can field 6 GT titles, both renowned for their 3rd week recuperation and strength. One of them is a crazy attacker, the other one have the best team at his disposal and is most likely the best climber on the world.

So yeah. Exciting times.