Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[May0maniac]

Even after his success in 2015, Dumoulin suits the Vuelta about as much as Indurain. He has the potential to be successful there, but is probably the GT he is least suited for, especially when riders who specialize in the Vuelta type climbs will be present.

What, the guy who beat Froome and Purito on Cumbre del Sol isn't really suited to Vuelta muritos?

 

[deValtos]

Honestly I'd have said the Giro is the tour that suited him the least though then again the TDF has been pushing it with it's anti TT routes so maybe that's changed now.

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin was just on the phone in De Avondetappe. He's on the last day of an altitude block right now, and they asked him about the rest of the year, and about next year. He said he really wanted to ride the Vuelta and that he loves riding it, but it really doesn't fit into the rest of the season. As for next year, he mentioned that he's gonna wait for the parcourses again, but it really seemed that the Tour parcours is the one that matters and that he's not just gonna look at which one is better. If he likes the Tour parcours, then he's going there. And it seems that the Giro is gonna be very hard anyway judging by the rumors.

 

[Leinster]

I still would have preferred to see him at the vuelta but IMO this at least makes more sense than going to the Vuelta and then not going for gc.
About the WC ITT, I think it's a very good sign for him that the guy who won the tdf opening ITT was 50 seconds behind him in the ITT of the giro.

In that Tour TT G still hadn't had his race-ending crash, but he had in the Giro. So not really like for like.

I think it makes complete sense for Dumoulin to just stick with whatever season program he already had before he finished the Giro, rather than feel in any way pressured into riding a Vuelta just because all the other cool kids are doing it. Riding a second GT of the season for GC is not something you can just half-arse your way through any more.

I think he should wait and see the routes for next season, pick which GT he wants to target most (hopefully Le Tour is favourable) and go for that 100%.

 

[Red Rick]

Even after his success in 2015, Dumoulin suits the Vuelta about as much as Indurain. He has the potential to be successful there, but is probably the GT he is least suited for, especially when riders who specialize in the Vuelta type climbs will be present.

What, the guy who beat Froome and Purito on Cumbre del Sol isn't really suited to Vuelta muritos?

I dare to say that Oropa was a lot crazier.
Dumoulin is a beast on 15 minutes efforts. Vuelta stages don't isolate him as much and don't put as much strain on his recovery. Only problem is that the amount of stages is higher, and the steep gradients do suit the lighter riders more.

On the other hand, he has done some great *** in multi climb stages now too, though chances of him cracking there are just bigger too.

I honestly feel his greates weakness should be the genuine monster climbs, if they're ridden all out. And he's always at risk for being worn down throughout a GT.

His DS seems to think he's still got room to improve. Scary thought.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

The only reason he got so weakened in multi MTF stages in Vuelta and Giro is because he had no team. He had to fix everything himself.

Give him a similar team to Froome and there was no tension whatsoever in the Giro and he'd had won the Vuelta already as well.

 

[Leinster]

Or give him the team that rode the Tour for Matthews and Barguil... wait, Ten Dam and Geschke were there too?

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re:

Dumoulin was just on the phone in De Avondetappe. He's on the last day of an altitude block right now, and they asked him about the rest of the year, and about next year. He said he really wanted to ride the Vuelta and that he loves riding it, but it really doesn't fit into the rest of the season. As for next year, he mentioned that he's gonna wait for the parcourses again, but it really seemed that the Tour parcours is the one that matters and that he's not just gonna look at which one is better. If he likes the Tour parcours, then he's going there. And it seems that the Giro is gonna be very hard anyway judging by the rumors.

I fear that with Bardet, Pinot and surely Barguil riding for GC, that the Tour will go for a criminally low number of ITT kms again (Bardet does not deserve to be on the podium this year). If so, then I hope that Tom tries to defend his Giro.

Unless of course both don't even have 50 + kms of flattish ITT. In which case he can roll his eyes, and go back to being a specialist against the clock. And both he and cycling fans lose out.

 

[DanielSong39]

Let's see if he can get the elusive WC ITT championship first. Dennis should be his toughest competition there, but too hard to predict who will be in form this far out.

 

[DanielSong39]

As for next year, Sunweb has a tough choice between Barguil and Dumoulin for the Tour GC. My guess is Barguil which would send Dumoulin to the Giro. It depends on the course map.

 

[Sciocco]

Re:

As for next year, Sunweb has a tough choice between Barguil and Dumoulin for the Tour GC. My guess is Barguil which would send Dumoulin to the Giro. It depends on the course map.

:lol:

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

As for next year, Sunweb has a tough choice between Barguil and Dumoulin for the Tour GC. My guess is Barguil which would send Dumoulin to the Giro. It depends on the course map.

:lol:

But it is a tough choice if the parcours is similar to this year (which it shouldn't be, but that doesn't mean that it won't). Barguil has improved greatly. His win on Izoard was mano vs. mano against the best, not being advantaged by a breakaway at all.

Hopefully the Tour has 100 kms of ITT next year, and with the rumoured extra hard mountainous course at next year's Giro, that Barguil considers targeting the Giro. I think he may be better than both Pinot and Bardet.

 

[Sciocco]

If the team picks Barguil over Dumoulin and Dumoulin wants to ride the Tour, he should leave the team immediately.

 

[Merckx index]

Keep in mind it isn't the absolute number of ITT km that matters, but the ratio of that to MTF km. A TDF with 70-80 km of ITT can still be favorable to pure climbers if there are numerous long climbs. The time they lose in the chronos they can gain back in the climbs. While the climbers did not face a lot of TT this year, they also did not have a lot of stages where they could take full advantage of their specialty.

Of course a rider who is elite at both disciplines is still going to be favored. What having relatively few TT and climbing km mostly does, as seen this year, is reduce the gaps between riders. The smaller the gaps, the greater the possibility of a chance or unusual event--a split in a flat stage, a descent, et al.--determining the outcome. If you want to maximize the possibility that the strongest overall rider will win, you have many stages where gaps are made.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

If everyone turned up in top form at that worlds TT, i'd say:

Dumoulin
Froome

Dennis/Jungels
Roglic





Everyone else

Fixed

 

[Red Rick]

I think I predicted years ago that the Giro might be Dumoulin's best shot at winning a GT, mostly because I thought climbing level in a GT was more important than the amount of climbing in a GT, and because the Giro was least dominated by mountains trains. And because it varied a lot more in route design so sooner or later a suitable route would come out.

I stll stand by those points. I think the Tour suits Dumoulin the least for now.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Hoping he gets beaten again to he can focus 100% on GTs instead of that nonsense. We need as many as possible to threaten Froome

 

[Ikbengodniet]

Why not hoping he wins so he doesn't care about it anymore.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Why not hoping he wins so he doesn't care about it anymore.

Also makes sense. Regardless, I think riding the Vuelta would benefit him more going into next season. And I'd much rather watch him in a GT than a single TT

 

[Red Rick]

Obviously, but Dumoulin is one of the few riders who can cherry pick his targets late season. He can animate the other races he does too.

Have they said anything about riding Lombardia?

 

[Monstre du Cyclisme]

It would be a silly decision or at least a quite risky one to ride the Vuelta. The reason ist just the inner competition with Barguil. Whereas a strong Vuelta could secure Dumoulin's spot as the captain for the next Tour a relatively weak race could put it in jeopardy. He has more to lose than to win. I think he feels that his shape at the moment isn't good enough for the Vuelta and therefore plays the safe game. He did a mistake by riding races after the Giro. So, he is still very fatigue and hasn't recuperated as he should in order to win the Vuellta. Thus, riding the time trial in Bergen is the better decision.

 

[Red Rick]

It would be a silly decision or at least a quite risky one to ride the Vuelta. The reason ist just the inner competition with Barguil. Whereas a strong Vuelta could secure Dumoulin's spot as the captain for the next Tour a relatively weak race could put it in jeopardy. He has more to lose than to win. I think he feels that his shape at the moment isn't good enough for the Vuelta and therefore plays the safe game. He did a mistake by riding races after the Giro. So, he is still very fatigue and hasn't recuperated as he should in order to win the Vuellta. Thus, riding the time trial in Bergen is the better decision.

So the guy who finished 9th in the Tour would challenge the Giro winner for leadership because the latter rode a crappy Vuelta?

Don't really think so

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Obviously, but Dumoulin is one of the few riders who can cherry pick his targets late season. He can animate the other races he does too.

Have they said anything about riding Lombardia?

Nothing is known about his program after the Worlds.
All that is certain so far is San Sebastian, Binck Bank, Quebec/Montreal and Worlds.

Lombardy is very much possible if he is still feeling fresh.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Obviously, but Dumoulin is one of the few riders who can cherry pick his targets late season. He can animate the other races he does too.

Have they said anything about riding Lombardia?

Nothing is known about his program after the Worlds.
All that is certain so far is San Sebastian, Binck Bank, Quebec/Montreal and Worlds.

Lombardy is very much possible if he is still feeling fresh.

Racing wise, that should be easy. Training wise, it's very hard to maintain form that long, though Binck Bank (I would barely want a race with that name directly after a Giro victory) and the Canadian races he's more dependent on circumstances that top shape anyway. Don't expect too much from CSS, but I think he could nail it if he did it after a Tour peak.

 

[Monstre du Cyclisme]

Barguil did a superb Tour. If he had ridden the Tour to challenge the GC he certainly would have finished within the top 5 with a clear shot of a podium finish. He climbed on the level of Froome and Bardet.

It all depends on the parcours. Dumoulin is great in time trials and really good on 1 climb mountain stages. But he is more average on long and tough mountain stages. That's the terrain where Barguil flourishes. He is also from France which is pretty imporant. It all depends how ASO creates the next route. With respect to the success of Bardet, Barguil and Pinot in the mountains this year I expect as little time trial kilometres as this year but considerably more and harder mountain stages in order to give Bardet and Barguil a better shot. So definitely an anti Dumoulin parcours. Dumoulin can climb even long mountains very well nowadays but I really think that Barguil could be the better climber at 200 kilometre stages with 5000m of elevation difference. Dumoulin is more the type of rider that can produce amazing efforts over a time of 30 minutes but stamina is still a bit fragile even though he managed to win this Giro in an amazing way.