Teams & Riders Tom Dumoulin discussion thread

[Mayomaniac]

nope.. tbh not sure if he'll do 2 gt's. Guess it depends a bit if he wants to do classics or not?

It would be great to see both him and Roglic in LBL after the Tour, it could be one of the very few times in recent years when we have the top gc riders of the Tour riding LBL in great shape.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

"Look at me George, I'm doin a Landis now"

He lost 3 minutes on two stages, where he needlessly spent energy. If he hadn't done that, his deficit might have been a minute or a minute and a half. That means he's far from as bad as he or many others seem to think. He didn't get dropped like a brick at all. If we can assume that there is still a good possibility that he will in fact improve, and others might do the opposite, you can't rule out he 'd still have a shot in week 3. Unfortunately, because of his "selfless act" (we'll see about that in two weeks), he has taken himself out of the race. I can also see a scenario unfold where it would have been more interesting, even to Roglic, that Jumbo had a backup leader still in contention late in the 3rd week, instead of whatever useless effort Dumoulin wasted the past few days. His efforts have been useless and counterproductive, while maybe well intended.
If indeed he gets better as the race unfolds, i wouldn't know why you would refer to Landis, if he were to attack somewhere in the third week, to pull himself back into the battle. Or maybe i'm missing your joke and is it a dig at Bennett?

 

[Red Rick]

He lost 3 minutes on two stages, where he needlessly spent energy. If he hadn't done that, his deficit might have been a minute or a minute and a half. That means he's far from as bad as he or many others seem to think. He didn't get dropped like a brick at all. If we can assume that there is still a good possibility that he will in fact improve, and others might do the opposite, you can't rule out he 'd still have a shot in week 3. Unfortunately, because of his "selfless act" (we'll see about that in two weeks), he has taken himself out of the race. I can also see a scenario unfold where it would have been more interesting, even to Roglic, that Jumbo had a backup leader still in contention late in the 3rd week, instead of whatever useless effort Dumoulin wasted the past few days. His efforts have been useless and counterproductive, while maybe well intended.
If indeed he gets better as the race unfolds, i wouldn't know why you would refer to Landis, if he were to attack somewhere in the third week, to pull himself back into the battle. Or maybe i'm missing your joke and is it a dig at Bennett?

I'm just joking about Bennetts Freudian slip when he called Froome's Finestre attack 'doing a Landis'

I think he can still top 5 if he improves, but not really win unless something really crazy happens.

 

[CyclistAbi]

In retrospective, likely the tension started to build up on stage 6. Realization, they are not good enough, as a team. That getting confirmed on stage 8, and due to Dumoulin stepping up, for that to paid off in stage 9. The situation wouldn't improve by itself. Something needed to be done. Ignoring the indicators, late into week 2, that would likely end up being a bad call.

Dumoulin likely always knew, if it will be his time to pull, he will do that. And realistically, that already happened in week 1. His time came and JV could pull off Movistar, or deliver. Dumoulin decided, heck, lets deliver. Lets win it then, i can go after a stage win, be a part of the winning team ... Still heaps better, compared to where i was not that long ago.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

In retrospective, likely the tension started to build up on stage 6. Realization, they are not good enough, as a team. That getting confirmed on stage 8, and due to Dumoulin stepping up, for that to paid off in stage 9. The situation wouldn't improve by itself. Something needed to be done. Ignoring the indicators, late into week 2, that would likely end up being a bad call.

Dumoulin likely always knew, if it will be his time to pull, he will do that. And realistically, that already happened in week 1. His time came and JV could pull off Movistar, or deliver. Dumoulin decided, heck, lets deliver. Lets win it then, i can go after a stage win, be a part of the winning team ... Still a heap better, compared to where i was not that long ago.

I basically disagree with this entire post.

 

[CyclistAbi]

You can, but JV will needs a strong team in week 2 and week 3. Now they have it.

Without Dumoulin showing some leadership, they had Movistar (and it showed).

 

[Red Rick]

Between stage 4 and 8, Dumoulin was clearly not happy with his form. Kuss crashed on stage 5 IIRC, so on stage 6 with Dumo not liking his form and Kuss recovering it makes a lot more sense for Jumbo to not drill it if they don't feel like they have the firepower to do so. It didn't even need to be Roglic who was weak. Especially considering Jumbo wanted Dumoulin to stick around in stage 8 they were probably really reluctant to drop him on stage 6 already.

As it happened, I think Dumo could've lost a bit less on stage 8, I wouldn't know if he could've made the 2nd group with Mollema et al. there, and yesterday I don't know if he was among the best in his group. He certaintly won't have been doing turns in that group or been attacking to close gaps.

 

[bajbar]

The thing with Tom is before the Tour he obviously saw the numbers and knew that Roglič was superior. But he was superior to everyone else as well in the prep races, so Tom keeping himself up there with his late Dauphine form might have been enough to keep him in podium contention. But seeing how others have improved - Uran, Pogačar, Bardet, Quintana, Porte, even Bernal - who are miles better than in the prep races and have closed the gap on Roglič, he is suddenly far down in the pecking order. And he does not want to play the top 10 game as he said himself. That is something Kruiswijk would do (and he clearly stated that himself in the interview today!). He might very well get a top 10, maybe even top 5 if he improves. But he was not going to win or be on the podium no matter if he worked or not.

 

[CyclistAbi]

And Roglič should have attack, as Pogačar, to gain time on Bernal, all on week 1? If JV would be strong enough, as seen on Critérium du Dauphiné, Dumoulin would not need to pull in week 1. In my opinion it came down to that. Likely Kruijswijk would need to pull, if he would be there, and Dumoulin would survive week 1 as GC contender.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

And Roglič should have attack, as Pogačar, to gain time on Bernal, all on week 1? If JV would be strong enough, as seen on Critérium du Dauphiné, Dumoulin would not need to pull in week 1. In my opinion it came down to that. Likely Kruijswijk would need to pull, if he would be there, and Dumoulin would survive week 1 as GC contender.

If you let your team drill it, then yes, he should have. At this moment i've made a complete 180, and i'm now rooting for Bernal to rip Roglic apart in week 3. For me, Jumbo is stacking one tactical mistake after another, both the team car, Dumoulin and Roglic.

 

[JosephK]

If you let your team drill it, then yes, he should have. At this moment i've made a complete 180, and i'm now rooting for Bernal to rip Roglic apart in week 3. For me, Jumbo is stacking one tactical mistake after another, both the team car, Dumoulin and Roglic.

These could be good points. However, if Roglic didn't have the legs to attack on stage 8 (maybe still recovering from the Dauphine injury), then maybe he was just covering some attacks (like Poga's first one) and then just hanging in as best he could. He has a good poker face. It may be hard for other riders to know how much he may be hurting. The team's drilling the pace may have been intended to discourage attacks (like Pogacar's, which succeeded eventually/partially). -- Also, I think that when the race gets down to the hardest parts, individual riders grapple with all sorts of factors that may or may not align with the team's pre-stage planning. Lots of stuff happens on the fly.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

These could be good points. However, if Roglic didn't have the legs to attack on stage 8 (maybe still recovering from the Dauphine injury), then maybe he was just covering some attacks (like Poga's first one) and then just hanging in as best he could. He has a good poker face. It may be hard for other riders to know how much he may be hurting. The team's drilling the pace may have been intended to discourage attacks (like Pogacar's, which succeeded eventually/partially). -- Also, I think that when the race gets down to the hardest parts, individual riders grapple with all sorts of factors that may or may not align with the team's pre-stage planning. Lots of stuff happens on the fly.

I can't understand that anybody would actually think that setting such a pace, and not attack, would be a good idea. Now, the only thing they did, was pave the way for Pogacar. Maybe Jumbo should learn to understand, that there are other good riders present, and that when Roglic isn't having his best day, that it's still possible that other riders are having a good day. In which case, they will gladly take Jumbo's gift of drilling the pace, with both hands and attack when they see Roglic won't or can't.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

interview:

Andere rol voor Tom Dumoulin: "Ik word nu de laatste man voor Roglic"

Tom Dumoulin heeft de eindzege in de Tour de France uit zijn hoofd gezet. De Limburger begon als medekopman aan de ronde, maar schikt zich vanaf nu in de rol van helper voor kopman en geletruidrager Primoz Roglic. “We hopen de gele trui naar Parijs te brengen, maar als ik niet kan volgen, dan is […]

translate.google.com

not sure why they are sharing this with public, either. Not that it matters much what Dumoulin's exact role will be from now on, but still. Also, no more focus on stage wins, apparently. Could impact Van Aert's chances for another stage win, I guess. Looks like the team is now 100% committed to Roglič.

 

[Red Rick]

interview:

Andere rol voor Tom Dumoulin: "Ik word nu de laatste man voor Roglic"

Tom Dumoulin heeft de eindzege in de Tour de France uit zijn hoofd gezet. De Limburger begon als medekopman aan de ronde, maar schikt zich vanaf nu in de rol van helper voor kopman en geletruidrager Primoz Roglic. “We hopen de gele trui naar Parijs te brengen, maar als ik niet kan volgen, dan is […]

translate.google.com

not sure why they are sharing this with public, either. Not that it matters much what Dumoulin's exact role will be from now on, but still. Also, no more focus on stage wins, apparently. Could impact Van Aert's chances for another stage win, I guess. Looks like the team is now 100% committed to Roglič.

I doubt it's much different for Van Aert. If circumstances cause a 50 dude bunch sprint I doubt Van Aert is gonna sit one out.

 

[bob.a.feet]

I can't understand that anybody would actually think that setting such a pace, and not attack, would be a good idea. Now, the only thing they did, was pave the way for Pogacar. Maybe Jumbo should learn to understand, that there are other good riders present, and that when Roglic isn't having his best day, that it's still possible that other riders are having a good day. In which case, they will gladly take Jumbo's gift of drilling the pace, with both hands and attack when they see Roglic won't or can't.

Why not drill it at the front to test out your rivals and hopefully eliminate the weak from contention? It's not completely nonsensical for your team to work hard but for your leader to save himself.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Why not drill it at the front to test out your rivals and hopefully eliminate the weak from contention? It's not completely nonsensical for your team to work hard but for your leader to save himself.

I believe it is. Those that can be eliminated by your domestiques, would realistically never be a threat anyway. Then why bother?

 

[Gargamel35]

Roglič himself said today, he had bad injuries from Dauphnie crash but still decided to race TdF 4 days before the start. He was hoping to survive first week and that he would be feeling better, not worse later on. Plan from JV was basically to survive first week with Roglič and Tom close to the top for yellow jersey.

Tom unfortunately realized he's not good enough for top position at the moment and Roglič is feeling better day by day. That's why they decided to go for yellow on stage 9 and Tom decided not to drag team down but help towards that goal.

 

[bob.a.feet]

I believe it is. Those that can be eliminated by your domestiques, would realistically never be a threat anyway. Then why bother?

If your domestique is Tom Dumoulin, you might be able to eliminate some guys. If any of his rivals were on a bad day they would have been exposed and, if not (as was the case), Roglic didn't have to put his nose in the wind at all.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If your domestique is Tom Dumoulin, you might be able to eliminate some guys. If any of his rivals were on a bad day they would have been exposed and, if not (as was the case), Roglic didn't have to put his nose in the wind at all.

In theory that might work, but it reads more like wishful thinking to me. I still believe having a second guy high in GC would offer a tactical advantage many times greater over the course of the next 2 weeks than possibly eliminating the weakest of the weak of possible GC threats. Either the point is that Dumoulin wasn't that good, but then why would you assume he would drop any real GC threats? Or you could argue Dumoulin is actually strong enough to deal a lot of damage, but in that case you are eliminating your 2nd strongest guy early in the race.

I feel it would have made a lot more sense for Dumoulin to only start dom'ing in case he lost much time, later down the line. If Roglic now crashes, has a mechanical, a bad day, or starts fading, it's likely game over and you have imploded your own team for nothing.

 

[Gargamel35]

In theory that might work, but it reads more like wishful thinking to me. I still believe having a second guy high in GC would offer a tactical advantage many times greater over the course of the next 2 weeks than possibly eliminating the weakest of the weak of possible GC threats. Either the point is that Dumoulin wasn't that good, but then why would you assume he would drop any real GC threats? Or you could argue Dumoulin is actually strong enough to deal a lot of damage, but in that case you are eliminating your 2nd strongest guy early in the race.

I feel it would have made a lot more sense for Dumoulin to only start dom'ing in case he lost much time, later down the line. If Roglic now crashes, has a mechanical, a bad day, or starts fading, it's likely game over and you have imploded your own team for nothing.

JV didn't implode TD. TD implode himself without talking to the team first. He doesn't want to be a second choice in JV. Half the team would need to work for him and he would compromise Roglič chances. JV wanted this scenario. Their plan was to keep both close to the top. I guess Tom isn't ready for it yet so he'll dom for Roglič and Roglič can dom for him in another GT if he gets better.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

JV didn't implode TD. TD implode himself without talking to the team first. He doesn't want to be a second choice in JV. Half the team would need to work for him and he would compromise Roglič chances. JV wanted this scenario. Their plan was to keep both close to the top. I guess Tom isn't ready for it yet so he'll dom for Roglič and Roglič can dom for him in another GT if he gets better.

That's true. That's why i said they all made mistakes (maybe in a different topic), and my first post of 2 days ago, i already pointed that out, that he (Tom) shouldn't have done that. Maybe the biggest mistake they all (Tom, Primoz, team car) made, was to not communicate sufficiently.

 

[Koronin]

That's true. That's why i said they all made mistakes (maybe in a different topic), and my first post of 2 days ago, i already pointed that out, that he (Tom) shouldn't have done that. Maybe the biggest mistake they all (Tom, Primoz, team car) made, was to not communicate sufficiently.

Well they wouldn't be the first team that has had communication issues.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If you let your team drill it, then yes, he should have. At this moment i've made a complete 180, and i'm now rooting for Bernal to rip Roglic apart in week 3. For me, Jumbo is stacking one tactical mistake after another, both the team car, Dumoulin and Roglic.

Or you can just say you are a bigger fan of Dumoulin. Nothing wrong with that. It's hard not to like Dumoulin. As for his decision.

Dumoulin started to have doubts early, on his current fitness and realistic chances to win this year. People around him started to win stages and Roglič started to take control of the race. You can't be immune to all of this. On stage 6 JV didn't deliver, stage 8 was the turning point. If Dumoulin wouldn't act, yes, JV would still have 2 GC contenders, but would perform poor on important stages, Roglič would fatigue more. As he acted the way he did, has started to pull, JV as a team started to dominate again, Roglič being able to further gain advantage, by investing less effort.

What was basically missing was a great midfielder and Dumoulin stepped up to fulfill that role. Now saying that because of that you will root for JV to get destroyed. Why? If you are a fan of Dumoulin, JV is his team.

 

[Ripper]

Or you can just say you are a bigger fan of Dumoulin. Nothing wrong with that. It's hard not to like Dumoulin. As for his decision.

Dumoulin started to have doubts early, on his current fitness and realistic chances to win this year. People around him started to win stages and Roglič started to take control of the race. You can't be immune to all of this. On stage 6 JV didn't deliver, stage 8 was the turning point. If Dumoulin wouldn't act, yes, JV would still have 2 GC contenders, but would perform poor on important stages, Roglič would fatigue more. As he acted the way he did, has started to pull, JV as a team started to dominate again, Roglič being able to further gain advantage, by investing less effort.

What was basically missing was a great midfielder and Dumoulin stepped up to fulfill that role. Now saying that because of that you will root for JV to get destroyed. Why? If you are a fan of Dumoulin, JV is his team.

Also, while I would agree with what SK said (hindsight is 20/20!), TD can obviously tell things are not where they need to be when WvA is killing him on a mountain, sees his own numbers, and sees how he is recovering day to day. The guy has been out of the race scene for over a year, and how long since he last did a GT?

For some of the armchair racers out there, it's always easy for folks to assess things after, but so far the in-race dynamics make sense and I can see how they've unfolded the way they have.

 

[gregrowlerson]

"Look at me George, I'm doin a Landis now"

Lance Armstrong 99-05