Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5kms

[Taxus4a]

Re:

Maybe not considering nowadays riders are competitive way into their thirties...

I am not sure of this. Contador is clearly declining, Nibali shows the same signs and even for Froome is suspected to decline by a lot of users. Horner is the exception but certainly not the rule. The same goes for Valverde. It's not that Uran will get plenty of chances again. At least he cannot be certain. If he end 2nd or 3rd is not that important. But Aru, Martin and Landa are still relatively close. You can end up 6th and no one will ever remember you.

Anyway, if Uran is strong enough to beat Froome, then an attack on the Col d'Izoard is more than enough. He doesn't need minutes. It's more or less a minute to get into touching distance and maybe 1:30 to feel a bit of safety. Such distances you can create on the last climb. There, you also see how your competitors for the podium are going and what would you risk going all in. There is absolutely no way an attack at the Allos would be successful. If Froome is so weak that he and his team couldn't make up for the losses on the descent and the false flat, then he would severely crack on the last climb anyway.

Contador is better than in 2013, he was second this year in a lot of races, so he is not clearly declining. We will see how he will be on of the best in the last ITT, as he has been always at ITT like thar.
I admit he is decling a little. IMO he wanst the stronger in 2014...the best in result finally, yes, but Froome showed better than him on Dauphiné, both in good shape, building for le Tour, but yes, respect 2014 he is declining, but no too much as some people say here as you. Crashes didnt have the importance he says, but a little. Froome crashed as well anyway.

And I think the best yeard of Rigo are to come, and he has 5 good years at top level.

The problem with him is that he is good at hilly and mountain clasics, 3 podium at Lombardia, 5th at Liege, GP Quebec /and 3rd), silver at the olimpics, GP Piemonte (and 8th), 3rd at the GP Industria, 3rd Milano Torino,3rd Giro del Emillia, 7th at Strade Bianche, 8th and 10th San Sebastian, 7th Amorebieta,...so he has to chose well the calendar to cover both Tours and classics...and maybe the best race for him for his abilities is the Tour...but you need a good team at le Tour, or to take it easy at the begining as he did this year and to have luck with crashes...Maybe he is not the best bet to win le Tour, but he has the potential for that, he had always and he promised that always since he came to Europe just at the age of 19. (and he was 35 at Emillia at 19)

 

[alspacka]

Re:

He needs an element of surprise. Also, if he has guys up the road he could isolate Froome if he goes after and fire off attacks on both climbs. With just one getting enough time will be very, very difficult. Uran is plenty known with podiums, stages and medals and all kinds of results. Being 7th or 2nd won't matter much. It could even be better as it shows he is willing to put on a show and blow the race apart, even if it fails.
Remember, there are no big contracts for anyone if cycling gets to be so boring that no one is watching in the first place.
It's not even that unlikely that it might succeed either. This is the big one we're talking about here. TdF CHAMPION.

I'm with you on this. There's always a lot of pessimistic talk around here, the Tour has been declared over since the prologue. This pervasive idea that Froome is managing the gap and his energy reserves, with the Vuelta in mind or whatever, is absurd. As if he'd intentionally, comfortably leave himself one mechanical/crash/knock away from losing the race. If Froome was physically capable of having a 5 minute gap, he would do. He's absolutely not unbeatable here. Everyone will give their all and I, for one, am excited.

 

[Supimilian]

Re: Re:

I'm with you on this. There's always a lot of pessimistic talk around here, the Tour has been declared over since the prologue. This pervasive idea that Froome is managing the gap and his energy reserves, with the Vuelta in mind or whatever, is absurd. As if he'd intentionally, comfortably leave himself one mechanical/crash/knock away from losing the race. If Froome was physically capable of having a 5 minute gap, he would do. He's absolutely not unbeatable here. Everyone will give their all and I, for one, am excited.

Hear, hear.
It will be a big disappointment if none of them tries anything else than the tired old attack within the last 4-5km move. The riders are probably aware of the gap size point though, even if the press and many fans seem to think he has it all solved already, so I'll choose to be optimistic for getting to see attacks tomorrow.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re:

You can always gamble. But you have to know the odds.

Ask and ye shall receive.

Froome 83%
Uran 11%
Bardet 5%
Aru 1%
Field 0%

I'm actually surprised Uran's chances are so high.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Easy to say as a member of the audience, but would you really risk a once in a lifetime shot at the podium at the Tour de France for a negligible chance of winning against someone who seems unbeatable?

Doesn't make for a spectacle, but if I was in Uran's shoes, I would be 100% on the defensive on the Izoard

If Froome is in a condition where he'll end up cracking on the Izoard, Bardet will find that out instead. Uran simply has to follow the wheels and seal his 2nd place, and if Bardet does end up finding Froome's weakness, Uran will be there to pick up the pieces and take the victory anyway

 

[DanielSong39]

Re:

Easy to say as a member of the audience, but would you really risk a once in a lifetime shot at the podium at the Tour de France for a negligible chance of winning against someone who seems unbeatable?

Doesn't make for a spectacle, but if I was in Uran's shoes, I would be 100% on the defensive on the Izoard

Uran will have a negligible chance of winning anyway if he can somehow ST with Froome on the stage. Bardet does not (and already has a runner-up finish) and Aru definitely does not (and has won a Grand Tour) so they may think differently.

Actually Uran will have a half-decent chance of winning if he can outclimb Froome over the final 1-2km so I would expect the other guys to attack and for Uran to stay on Froome's wheel.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Yeah, this is just wishful thinking and absolutely no realistic contemplation. This is the Tour and not a **** race. A podium spot is really important.

Depends if you think you should gamble for glory with some of the profit you didn't expect to win.
Most here think: Yes
Remember, Uran wasn't supposed to be a top 5 candidate before this bike race. But for all I know he could be so strong they expect him to take that minute on the last climb...

Nobody is saying that. Cannondale is playing for podium.
Anyway, for as much as I want it to happen as well, is not going to happen.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Fast forward to the last 3k.

 

[DanielSong39]

Re:

Fast forward to the last 3k.

Predictions with 3km to go:
Stage win goes to the break
Froome, Bardet, Uran together along with a small number of domestiques/dropoffs from chase group
Aru dropped

OK, let's see how close I am.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Re:

Easy to say as a member of the audience, but would you really risk a once in a lifetime shot at the podium at the Tour de France for a negligible chance of winning against someone who seems unbeatable?

Doesn't make for a spectacle, but if I was in Uran's shoes, I would be 100% on the defensive on the Izoard

If Froome is in a condition where he'll end up cracking on the Izoard, Bardet will find that out instead. Uran simply has to follow the wheels and seal his 2nd place, and if Bardet does end up finding Froome's weakness, Uran will be there to pick up the pieces and take the victory anyway

For me if I was Uran I would ride for the win. However, if I was Uran's team I would make him ride for the podium, and that's exactly what Cannondale will do.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

The Tour is already over. No one believed they could beat Froome. The fight for second place is still very much open though, but let's be honest, nothing is gonna happen until 4-5 km to the finish.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

I predict Sky lets Landa go already on Vars, to force all the other top 10 riders to chase themselves (while all their teammates are blow out the back of the group), with Froome just riding wheels..... At least I hope they are that smart

It will destroy the grand plan AG2R is sure to have ready for tomorrow (which is the only team that can rival Sky), and force them to spend their force chasing instead.

Froome knows that even if Landa puts 2 minutes into him and takes the jersey, he'll take it back on the TT, so it's no big deal - actually more of a gesture from a grand champion to his Lieutenant - while being smart strategy

 

[Jungle Cycle]

Felling sad realizing this should be the last Contador TdF mountain stage..
Hopping for next year giro but who knows.!?.
Anyway, thanks for the last decade!!

 

[The Barb]

Re: Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5km

No chance for the break today ...

Only three winning chances - Froome, Landa, Bardet.

I think Landa and Froome are the strongest and could see them finishing together alone. In which case I am not sure whether Froome would take the win for bonus seconds or let Landa have it (probably the former but I hope the latter).

 

[Tigerion]

Re: Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5km

No chance for the break today ...

Only three winning chances - Froome, Landa, Bardet.

I think Landa and Froome are the strongest and could see them finishing together alone. In which case I am not sure whether Froome would take the win for bonus seconds or let Landa have it (probably the former but I hope the latter).

Froome doesn't have a stage win this tour and a yellow jersey without a win is always slightly marred. So think he would take the win

 

[DanielSong39]

Re: Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5km

No chance for the break today ...

Only three winning chances - Froome, Landa, Bardet.

I think Landa and Froome are the strongest and could see them finishing together alone. In which case I am not sure whether Froome would take the win for bonus seconds or let Landa have it (probably the former but I hope the latter).

Sky will have to make the pace then because every other GC rider will want the break to get away.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5km

No chance for the break today ...

Only three winning chances - Froome, Landa, Bardet.

I think Landa and Froome are the strongest and could see them finishing together alone. In which case I am not sure whether Froome would take the win for bonus seconds or let Landa have it (probably the former but I hope the latter).

Sky will have to make the pace then because every other GC rider will want the break to get away.

Sky don't want the bonus seconds to be in play, they'll be happy to let DeGhent, Roglic, Atapuma or whoever gobble up those first 3 spots. They already have 1 stage win this Tour, and they would gladly swap that now for a guarantee that Froome will be in yellow on Sunday.

The other GC contenders want the bonus seconds to be there; Bardet knows that if he does distance Froome on top of the Izoard, it'll only be by at most a minute, if he's very lucky, and very, very good. He will need every second he can get for the TT, and if that means his team keeping the break on a tight leash, then that's what they'll do.

 

[phanatic]

Re: Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5km

Landa Unbound

 

[glassmoon]

i've lost all the respect for Uran i had (not much anyway) but if he doesn't try to win here boldly, i'm starting to actively hate him

 

[memyselfandI]

Re:

I predict Sky lets Landa go already on Vars, to force all the other top 10 riders to chase themselves (while all their teammates are blow out the back of the group), with Froome just riding wheels..... At least I hope they are that smart

It will destroy the grand plan AG2R is sure to have ready for tomorrow (which is the only team that can rival Sky), and force them to spend their force chasing instead.

Froome knows that even if Landa puts 2 minutes into him and takes the jersey, he'll take it back on the TT, so it's no big deal - actually more of a gesture from a grand champion to his Lieutenant - while being smart strategy

+1

This is probably the move of the day.

 

[glassmoon]

Re:

I predict Sky lets Landa go already on Vars, to force all the other top 10 riders to chase themselves (while all their teammates are blow out the back of the group), with Froome just riding wheels..... At least I hope they are that smart

It will destroy the grand plan AG2R is sure to have ready for tomorrow (which is the only team that can rival Sky), and force them to spend their force chasing instead.

Froome knows that even if Landa puts 2 minutes into him and takes the jersey, he'll take it back on the TT, so it's no big deal - actually more of a gesture from a grand champion to his Lieutenant - while being smart strategy

that would be smart... so it probably wont't happen

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

You can always gamble. But you have to know the odds.

Ask and ye shall receive.

Froome 83%
Uran 11%
Bardet 5%
Aru 1%
Field 0%

I'm actually surprised Uran's chances are so high.

I'm surprised anyone but Froome's chances would be over 3%.

 

[dacooley]

Another draw with Froome and Uran sprinting for the stage and Bardet,Aru losing 5-10 sec incoming.

 

[Pezrider]

Re: Tour de France 2017 Stage 18: Briançon - Izoard, 179.5km

What are the KOM points on offer today?

 

[Robert5091]

Rain today to spice things up.