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Tour de France Tour de France 2022: Stage 15 (Rodez – Carcassonne, 202.5k)

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Zinoviev Letter

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Netserk said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1547273228388896769
View: https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/1547273228388896769
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Yes, I’m familiar with the difficulties in calculating precise R0 in populations where almost nobody is immunologically naive and also the arguments about the meaningfulness of R0 as opposed to Rt in such populations. Even though there are ongoing arguments about exactly how high R0 currently is , there is no argument about whether all of the most recent variants are highly contagious, and unfortunately the travelling circus of a GT is notoriously an environment where even much less infectious diseases are easily spread.

I realise that these discussions are filled with people who are just fed up of this stuff and I understand the motivated reasoning that causes. But yanking people with enough of a viral load to be obviously contagious remains a much better solution than seeing if Rt is high enough to get the whole peloton excepting those who have been recently sick over the course of 23 days. So far we know that at least nine riders have been infected even with the contagious getting pulled asap (we don’t know if there are other Majkas). How many would you be happy to see those riders infect rather than pull them?

Assume an unrealistically low Rt of 3 and that’s another 27 people, presumably all riders and team staff, before we consider the onwards infections from the 27. How many will we get to in 24 days of team busses, team hotels, team meetings, soigneur sessions etc? Even ignoring all health issues, what’s more disruptive to the racing? 8 riders being pulled by day 17, some of whom would certainly have developed enough symptoms to not be competitive anyway? Or dozens upon dozens infected?

If people‘ priority is really to see how many of the 8 would make it to Paris, fine but that means coming up with a bubble system for the infected. (Which, incidentally is what I think will happen next year)
 
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That‘s the stage Bora waited for, probably… I am sure that Politt wins this, today. I cannot imagine that the breakaway will be caught, and I am sure Honore won‘t have a chance. Politt will drop him in the final kms, and win this stage solo.

I do not understand why Bahrain is not chasing. Bahrain‘s TdF has been a nightmare, until now, and they only got headlines for these police trouble, recently. I don‘t know what‘s going on with Mohoric, for example. He is riding a terrible TdF. Why has Bahrain‘s government not prevented European police from attacking the team? The team and their sponsors will be upset about what happened in this Tour and beforehand. I‘m angry, also. Why does European police prevent Bahrain cycling team from riding fast and entertaining? What sense does that make?

If Bahrain doesn‘t perform in stages like today‘s, their Tour will be over. Do they want to wait for the hard Pyrenean stages? They won‘t even finish these stages in the day‘s Top-30, in current shape.
 
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Netserk said:
Delta was more contagious than omicron, but the latter has greater immune evasion.
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That at this moment depends on which experts you prefer and which preprints you read. But both are highly contagious which is all that really matters in the travelling circus. And my basic point is that when we are talking about contagion, how symptomatic the individual is at any given point can’t be the only relevant factor. Personally I think that if we get to Paris and only 8 to say 12 riders have had to be pulled despite the race coinciding with a major wave, that’s a big success and indicates that Covid is a manageable problem at GTs.
 
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Netserk said:
And yet neither are near measles, unlike what you claimed.
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I was going off the recent preprint that indicated R0 of 18.6. Given the difficulties of establishing R0 in current circumstances, the intense arguments about it among the experts and the greater relevance of Rt, I’m perfectly happy to assume a vastly lower Rt. It makes no difference to the consequences of the argument, unless you want to claim an absurdly low Rt. Insert whatever Rt you want and do the sums. 8 guys pulled is really minimal disruption,
 
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