Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 16: Passy - Combloux, 22.4k (ITT)

[Trofonios]

50 kph is too much with that climb in it. I think.

Maybe, I just posted it as a rough reference.

 

[FrontHeadlock]

All I know is, the absolute worst thing that could happen is for GC to be so close after tomorrow that Pog wins on something like Bonus seconds in Stage 17/20. Now that would be truly horrible.

 

[tobydawq]

It feels like 2019, 2011 and 2008 are the only other Tours in my lifetime where I didn't have a very strong sense who would win going into the last week (in 2020 I was of course proven wrong and 2006 I did think Landis but then stopped doing that - then I did again later).

It's a nice feeling.

 

[tobydawq]

All I know is, the absolute worst thing that could happen is for GC to be so close after tomorrow that Pog wins on something like Bonus seconds in Stage 17/20. Now that would be truly horrible.

Why? Then Vingegaard needs to attack.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Is Van Aert expected to go full gas tomorrow?

Whether Wout van Aert goes full gas, or not full gas, one thing is true:

He is not a pancake.

 

[FrontHeadlock]

Why? Then Vingegaard needs to attack.

Whether he attacks or not, it would be ridiculous for the GC to be decided based on Bonus seconds in the last couple stages.

Could you imagine JV up by 7 seconds and Bonusgacar sprinting to the line 4" ahead of JV to win by 1" from the 4" bonus? Lmao at how silly that would be.

Let's just please have someone grab the win rather than something ridiculous like Bonus seconds deciding this.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Whether he attacks or not, it would be ridiculous for the GC to be decided based on Bonus seconds in the last couple stages.

Could you imagine JV up by 7 seconds and Bonusgacar sprinting to the line 4" ahead of JV to win by 1" from the 4" bonus? Lmao at how silly that would be.

Let's just please have someone grab the win rather than something ridiculous like Bonus seconds deciding this.

Bonusgacar, thats original and pretty funny honestly! Never seen that one before

I hope Pogacar absolutely destroys Vingegaard tomorrow 2020-style, that would be best for the race IMO!

 

[tobydawq]

Whether he attacks or not, it would be ridiculous for the GC to be decided based on Bonus seconds in the last couple stages.

Could you imagine JV up by 7 seconds and Bonusgacar sprinting to the line 4" ahead of JV to win by 1" from the 4" bonus? Lmao at how silly that would be.

Let's just please have someone grab the win rather than something ridiculous like Bonus seconds deciding this.

I also enjoyed the Bonusgacar

And yeah, that wouldn't feel right, I guess I agree. Even if I am rooting for Pogi.

 

[proffate]

Whether he attacks or not, it would be ridiculous for the GC to be decided based on Bonus seconds in the last couple stages.

Could you imagine JV up by 7 seconds and Bonusgacar sprinting to the line 4" ahead of JV to win by 1" from the 4" bonus? Lmao at how silly that would be.

Let's just please have someone grab the win rather than something ridiculous like Bonus seconds deciding this.

Bonus seconds make the racing more interesting. If bonus seconds couldn't determine the outcome of the race, there would be no point in them. If you like to be bored, go rewatch the sky train.

 

[pastronef]

Vuelta 2020 was decided on bonus seconds

 

[SHAD0W93]

Vuelta 2020 was decided on bonus seconds

2011 Vuelta as well at first.


The riders know, or at least they should, what the bonus seconds are and where they’re rewarded. If everything is that close, it’s on Vinge to drop Pog.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I also enjoyed the Bonusgacar

And yeah, that wouldn't feel right, I guess I agree. Even if I am rooting for Pogi.

Bonusgacar is great but it can only happen if he beats Vingdurain in the ITT.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Bonus seconds make the racing more interesting. If bonus seconds couldn't determine the outcome of the race, there would be no point in them. If you like to be bored, go rewatch the sky train.

Bonus seconds are all fun and games, unless Jonas wins the Tour by 1 second...then we will have months...nay, years of motogate thread wars. In the name of all that is holy, do not let that happen, the world needs less strife right now.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Bonusgacar is great but it can only happen if he beats Vingdurain in the ITT.

Quality post

 

[tobydawq]

Bonus seconds are all fun and games, unless Jonas wins the Tour by 1 second...then we will have months...nay, years of motogate thread wars. In the name of all that is holy, do not let that happen, the world needs less strife right now.

The motos cost Pogi 8 seconds. A smaller winning margin for Vingegaard and I will throw tantrums to the end of time.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Some great legwork DE.

One thing I'm missing is the net elevation gain/km, which you can easily derive from these, but iMO is still more useful than some of the metrics here.

But given we speak about average speed, I think steep uphills depress average speed the most. Technicality get much more difficult to define.

Here you go. Take the km and % above 10% with a grain of salt as it’s collated from a variety of sources.

Race	Distance	Elevation gain	Elevation gain/km	Elevation loss	Net elevation gain/km	Kms above 10%	% above 10%	Average speed of winner
Giro d'Italia 2019, stage 9	34,8	723	20,77586207	77	18,56321839	0,8	2,298850575	40,3
TT Worlds 2017	31	661	21,32258065	350	10,03225806	1,8	5,806451613	41,6
Paris-Nice 2017, stage 4	14,5	333	22,96551724	181	10,48275862	1,1	7,586206897	40,2
Itzulia 2014, stage 6	25,9	664	25,63706564	666	-0,07722007722	0	0	40,3
Tour de France 2020, stage 20	36,2	962	26,57458564	214	20,66298343	3,3	9,116022099	38,8
Tour de Suisse 2021, stage 7	23,2	654	28,18965517	631	0,9913793103	0,3	1,293103448	38,6
Tour de France 2023, stage 16	22,4	636	28,39285714	242	17,58928571	2	8,928571429	??
Itzulia 2015, stage 6	18,3	522	28,52459016	680	-8,633879781	1,9	10,38251366	38,2
Tour de Pologne 2022, stage 6	11,8	337	28,55932203	43	24,91525424	0,2	1,694915254	40,1
Tour de France 2013, stage 17	32	926	28,9375	853	2,28125	1,3	4,0625	37,2
Tour de Suisse 2013, stage 9	26,8	976	36,41791045	106	32,46268657	4,7	17,53731343	31
Itzulia 2016, stage 6	16,5	628	38,06060606	615	0,7878787879	2,8	16,96969697	33,9
Tour de France 2016, stage 18	17	676	39,76470588	130	32,11764706	1,9	11,17647059	33,2

 

[tobydawq]

Vuelta 2020 was decided on bonus seconds

So was the Vuelta 2008. Otherwise, Leipheimer would have beaten Contador. I guess that's what the people want to see.

 

[jaylew]

Whether he attacks or not, it would be ridiculous for the GC to be decided based on Bonus seconds in the last couple stages.

Could you imagine JV up by 7 seconds and Bonusgacar sprinting to the line 4" ahead of JV to win by 1" from the 4" bonus? Lmao at how silly that would be.

Let's just please have someone grab the win rather than something ridiculous like Bonus seconds deciding this.

Agreed. I really want one of them to put some decent time into the other in one of the remaining road stages.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

27 kph? Seems too much.

They did Domancy in 6 minutes and 40 seconds at 7.4 W/kg when Jumbo shredded the peloton there in the early stages of the final stage of the 2020 Dauphiné, then as I mentioned upthread Dumoulin was the fastest on the section from Domancy to Combloux in 2016 at 7 minutes and 7 seconds. That would be 13:47 for 6 kilometres, or 26.1 km/h… and I’d expect Pogacar and Vingegaard to go a little faster on the second section. If 27 km/h is too high, it won’t be by much. 50 km/h on the part before it, otoh, is impossible with the steep hill in it.

 

[ontheroad]

Pog wins this by 25 seconds from Vingegaard. Nobody else within a minute.

 

[Lorzenz08]

I don't expect much more than 20 secs between Pogi in Vingo.
At the end either Vingo will have at best 30 secs on Pogi. Or at best Pogi will have 10 secs on Vingo.

So, I think the Tour will still be up for grab after tomorrow.

 

[Cookster15]

I hope Pog takes yellow but I also hope that Pog has deliberately left himself enough energy to destroy Vingegaard on Lotz.

Both JV and UAE have expended a lot of energy. Looks can be deceiving. But then I can sometimes be an optimist. . Which is why I use the word “hope”.

 

[Andy schleck]

All I know is, the absolute worst thing that could happen is for GC to be so close after tomorrow that Pog wins on something like Bonus seconds in Stage 17/20. Now that would be truly horrible.

This thing called bonus seconds should not be at the tour. It's ridiculous. The gaps should be the only thing that matters.

 

[jono]

Whether he attacks or not, it would be ridiculous for the GC to be decided based on Bonus seconds in the last couple stages.

Could you imagine JV up by 7 seconds and Bonusgacar sprinting to the line 4" ahead of JV to win by 1" from the 4" bonus? Lmao at how silly that would be.

Let's just please have someone grab the win rather than something ridiculous like Bonus seconds deciding this.

It would be silly and I hope it doesn't happen. But I also think it would be kind of silly, and unfortunate although not unprecedented, to have a GT winner who may not win a single stage.

Crossing the line first is good!

 

[Elos Anjos]

The concept of "gaps" entails the concept of a finish line that riders have in view in order to gap. It's hence fair to reward who gets there first as this amounts to be better even without any gap towards other contenders. Without bonus seconds you could have at the limit a tied Tour. There's really no point in going against bonus seconds without a nostalgic argument ("back in the day") or a performance argument ("real riders drop other riders").