Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 16: Passy - Combloux, 22.4k (ITT)

[Boehmand]

The bike change happened on the climb so it's hard to say whether he would've gone faster without it. The change itself took roughly 12 seconds.

The climb was the only reason to make a bike change.

It would make no sense to have a bike change, if not to be able to climb faster.

 

[RobertCrawley]

The bike change happened on the climb so it's hard to say whether he would've gone faster without it. The change itself took roughly 12 seconds.

I'd have to re-watch, but I thought the bike exchange was before the climb so Pogi could get going on the flat.

 

[Boehmand]

I'd have to re-watch, but I thought the bike exchange was before the climb so Pogi could get going on the flat.

It was right at the start of the climb, as the speed you carry into it wears off - you don't want to slow down for a bike change on the flat.

 

[Trofonios]

On the final climb Pogacar had "just" the 4th time. So if he didn't crack, at least he wasn't doing amazing either. But this is what Jumbo have been working towards, make Pogacar tired and make the race perfect for third week king Vingegaard. You could already see on Sunday that Vingegaard was becoming stronger compared to Pogacar and now the momentum has definitely shifted towards him. I wouldn't be surprised if he dealt the final blow tomorrow.

That being said, the gap would probably have been half as big if he didn't change bikes. Seriously, that was such a bad decision. In the final few kilometers Vingegaard took another 30 seconds, simply because he could stay in TT position.

Think Vinge also took some time on the first climb. UAE said that Pog had tested both options earlier this summer and that he was faster on the road bike and Yates faster on the tt-bike. Pog himself said that he didn't feel supergood on the last climb, As you say, could be fatigue setting in.

Just that Vinge was so much faster on the climbs makes me a bit worried for Pog tomorrow. Agree, we could see the final blow.

 

[Boehmand]

Think Vinge also took some time on the first climb. UAE said that Pog had tested both options earlier this summer and that he was faster on the road bike and Yates faster on the tt-bike. Pog himself said that he didn't feel supergood on the last climb, As you say, could be fatigue setting in.

Just that Vinge was so much faster on the climbs makes me a bit worried for Pog tomorrow. Agree, we could se the final blow tomorrow.

Yep, but we could also see the reverse effect.

If Vingegaard was down 1:38 now, I'd still believe he had a chance at cracking Pogacar and taking 2 minutes tomorrow, De La Loze is a brutal 28 K climb, with a 6 K respite in the centre, but with the double digit gradients at high altitude in the last 6 K.

But yes, it is more likely Vingegaard carries through the shape he showed today.

 

[Bavarianrider]

Besides the absolute Vinegard madness we were told two lessons today

1. Bike changes are totally overrated, the difference between a TT bike and a Road bike on climbs is much smaller then we were made to believe.
2. TT routes are best when they have no, or only a few steop and go corners. Nothing new, but proven again. Especially in the Giro TT routses are often destroyed by those corners and they kill gaps.

 

[Boehmand]

Besides the absolute Vinegard madness we were told two lessons today

1. Bike changes are totally overrated, the difference between a TT bike and a Road bike on climbs is much smaller then we were made to believe.
2. TT routes are best when they have no, or only a few steop and go corners. Nothing new, but proven again. Especially in the Giro TT routses are often destroyed by those corners and they kill gaps.

1. Depends on the manufacturer - I think it was Hincapie that made the point somewhere, that there is much larger weight difference for Colnago between the TT bike and the road bike, than is the case for Cevelo - which may very well inform the decision on whether to change or not.

2. Depends on the type of rider you want to win

 

[jaylew]

On the final climb Pogacar had "just" the 4th time. So if he didn't crack, at least he wasn't doing amazing either. But this is what Jumbo have been working towards, make Pogacar tired and make the race perfect for third week king Vingegaard. You could already see on Sunday that Vingegaard was becoming stronger compared to Pogacar and now the momentum has definitely shifted towards him. I wouldn't be surprised if he dealt the final blow tomorrow.

That being said, the gap would probably have been half as big if he didn't change bikes. Seriously, that was such a bad decision. In the final few kilometers Vingegaard took another 30 seconds, simply because he could stay in TT position.

Another aspect is this: sometimes people just have their pacing wrong. Happens all the time, you go out too hard in the early parts of a TT and pay for it later. If someone went too hard early today, their time on the climb would be slower than it would otherwise. Didn't Pog put time into Wout on the early flat sections?

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Anyone know where I can find and sort the split times of each intermediate? PCS doesn't have them.

Hmm, when I left my laptop some hours ago leaving letour official live covery and came back an hour ago all split times were still present, even updating page.
But now I cannot find it, should've saved the link.

 

[ManicJack]

1. Depends on the manufacturer - I think it was Hincapie that made the point somewhere, that there is much larger weight difference for Colnago between the TT bike and the road bike, than is the case for Cevelo - which may very well inform the decision on whether to change or not.

2. Depends on the type of rider you want to win

Yeah, I heard that also but the # Hincapie through out there (don't recall specifically ) seemed a bit extreme.

 

[RobertCrawley]

Besides the absolute Vinegard madness we were told two lessons today

1. Bike changes are totally overrated, the difference between a TT bike and a Road bike on climbs is much smaller then we were made to believe.
2. TT routes are best when they have no, or only a few steop and go corners. Nothing new, but proven again. Especially in the Giro TT routses are often destroyed by those corners and they kill gaps.

In this case, the bike exchange did not pan out as the best idea. But if they were climbing a mountain, it would make sense. I too am a fan of a rolling TT parcours with some good corners to test skills.

 

[madthebad]

Another aspect is this: sometimes people just have their pacing wrong. Happens all the time, you go out too hard in the early parts of a TT and pay for it later. If someone went too hard early today, their time on the climb would be slower than it would otherwise. Didn't Pog put time into Wout on the early flat sections?

All in all in the weekend mountain stages both Pogi and Jonas , while still dominant , they looked a bit human with Rodriguez being able to catch back up to them , Yates pulling a bit of a gap at one point . After a rest day to come out and destroy everyone in such manner its a bit too much for me . While a performance like Tadej 's was on the cards for today , the level which Jonas brought on the table was unreal . the discrepancy between the Sunday stage compared to this tt its too much for me to accept . Thats my personal opinion regardless of details like the bike change , who pushed more on whatever section and so on . After tomorrow 3rd place in the GC will be at over 10 minutes while 10th will be well over 20 minutes , I personally havent seen this type of gaps in TDF since the early 00's .

 

[Lorzenz08]

Another aspect is this: sometimes people just have their pacing wrong. Happens all the time, you go out too hard in the early parts of a TT and pay for it later. If someone went too hard early today, their time on the climb would be slower than it would otherwise. Didn't Pog put time into Wout on the early flat sections?

Yes but Vinge put time into Pogi in absolutely every sections, including flat.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Come on, don't be such a sore loser. If Pogacar had done the same you would have been over the moon. Pogi and his fans now feel like Jumbo did in the Tour 2020. These things happen.

And, to give you some hope, Van Aert sounds like he has a cold, so maybe he infects Vingegaard and it will be an exciting final few stages

But he didn't and that's the point because doing that is too much. And finally it's not about my or any other fans feelings. It's about why they surface and I can assure you that they don't appear in many, many fans because "their" rider was trampled. It's about the performance that made it.

Pogacar should keep his classics program and put ASO against the wall by rounding his palmares with both Giro and Vuelta. Then the Tour will become a walk in the park until it looses audiences

 

[Elos Anjos]

I'll bet you nobody in here would be making "clinic" references, if the roles had been reversed today - everyone would have just accepted that it was because "Pogacar is the best rider since Mercks".

Because he is. Pogacar did what he did in 2020 in PDBF and people at the time reacted with good reason to what they saw. And he has steadily proved how is a complete and deserved heir to Merckx .

What's utterly strange is this dumb framework of explaining Vingo's shredding performance with cornering and aero techniques.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Come on, don't be such a sore loser. If Pogacar had done the same you would have been over the moon. Pogi and his fans now feel like Jumbo did in the Tour 2020. These things happen.

And, to give you some hope, Van Aert sounds like he has a cold, so maybe he infects Vingegaard and it will be an exciting final few stages

No, they don't, not in this century, and actually not since the 60ies if you look at s/km for example. It's unfair to assume that no one would ask questions, if Pogacar did this to Vingegaard. when this is objectively a historically significant performance by all means.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Bottom line:

I said Vingegaard was better than Pogacar week 3, already before the Tour started - people laughed.

I said Vingegaard was better than Pogacar in high heat, already before the Tour started - people laughed.

I said Vingegaard was a better bike handler and descender than Pogacar, in week 1 of the race - people laughed.

I said Vingegaard was better than Pogacar at high altitude, already before the Tour started - people laughed.

Now that 3 of the 4 chicken came home to roost (the 4th may come home tomorrow), most of the people who laughed have turned into crybabies and conspiracy theorists that make wild unproven claims about cheating, instead of acknowledging the points they were laughing about came true.

It's simply pathetic

What the hell are you doing here, big mouth?

With all that insight into the future you would already be a millionaire.

You didn't see this ITT coming. Not even JV (Jumbo and Jonas) did.

 

[Boehmand]

Because he is. Pogacar did what he did in 2020 in PDBF and people at the time reacted with good reason to what they saw. And he has steadily proved how is a complete and deserved heir to Merckx .

What's utterly strange is this dumb framework of explaining Vingo's shredding performance with cornering and aero techniques.

If you think those are the only explanations, I recommend you seach my posts on the subject in this thread.

Had Pogacar come into this Tour in peak condition, the gap would probably have been 45 seconds less, but he didn't, so here we are.

 

[Boehmand]

What the hell are you doing here, big mouth?

With all that insight into the future you would already be a millionaire.

You didn't see this ITT coming. Not even JV (Jumbo and Jonas) did.

I did not foresee such a big gap, no, but I have already explained why I think it got so big.

It would behove you to read what I said on the subject in the thread, before you criticise me for what I have said on the subject.

Also, what makes you think I am not a millionaire?

 

[johnymax]

To be honest, before the stage I expected Vingegaard to beat Pogi by 20-30s. But this performance was crazy.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Bottom line:

I said Vingegaard was better than Pogacar week 3, already before the Tour started - people laughed.

I said Vingegaard was better than Pogacar in high heat, already before the Tour started - people laughed.

I said Vingegaard was a better bike handler and descender than Pogacar, in week 1 of the race - people laughed.

I said Vingegaard was better than Pogacar at high altitude, already before the Tour started - people laughed.

Now that 3 of the 4 chicken came home to roost (the 4th may come home tomorrow), most of the people who laughed have turned into crybabies and conspiracy theorists that make wild unproven claims about cheating, instead of acknowledging the points they were laughing about came true.

It's simply pathetic

The other three aside, the vast majority already said Vinge was a better descender and handler than Pog. But no one thought he was as good as today.

 

[RobertCrawley]

To be honest, before the stage I expected Vingegaard to beat Pogi by 20-30s. But this performance was crazy.

I thought Jonas had the advantage of going last, but I thought at most he would win (or lose) 10 seconds.

 

[Boehmand]

To be honest, before the stage I expected Vingegaard to beat Pogi by 20-30s. But this performance was crazy.

Pre-Tour I'd agree, and I even thought the same 3-4 days ago.

But Pogacar has looked weakening the last 2 stages, and then I think the heat overcooked him in his TT helmet the 2nd half of the TT.

We've never before seen Pogacar look like he did the last 7-8 K today, his face was drawn, his eyes were empty and his pedal stroke looked laboured and lacked his usual power and rhythm.

I think the lack of proper preparation (because of the injury) is costing him more in week 3 than it normally would.

 

[Boehmand]

The other three aside, the vast majority already said Vinge was a better descender and handler than Pog. But no one thought he was as good as today.

Obviously Vingegaard rode the TT of his life today, but I think the reason the difference got so dramatic is that Pogacar is not at his best, as said in the post before this one..

 

[Elos Anjos]

I have just been reading Marca, a Spanish newspaper and the blatant state of unbelief there towards Vingo's performance is showing. I guess the fair conclusion is that Spanish people are also sour loosers.