Tour de France Tour de France 2023, stage 6: Tarbes - Cauterets-Cambasque, 144.9k

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The Joux Plane and Courchevel stages will be pretty rough time limit-wise, especially with how deep all the non-climbers are having to go already. I can't see everyone surviving the chopping block, and Cavendish will be one of the first on it.
We shall see. Cav is usually pretty smart on pacing himself to keep within the time limit with the real big hiccups being when he wanted to stop twice to give respect to Simpson’s statue on Mt Ventoux. The good thing for him is Astana can use Quickstep for help versus being the only riders to help.
 
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@titan31 look at that, Cav finished with Jakobsen yesterday and ahead today despite dropping sooner while looking in better shape at the end. Looks fine so far to finish the race ;)
Today's not the stage I'd have been worries on for him. It's 14 and 17. If they're raced at a strong pace from early, guys like Cav, Bauhaus, Jakobsen will be in trouble.

Today isn't as bad as the descent off Tourmalet is quite long and they really shouldn't have been dropped until Aspin which was 60k into the stage. Going to be a lot more difficult if they're dropped less than 30k into the stage and have a ton of climbing still to do.
 
Great stage. I think it was generally well played by Jumbo, you have to go for it when you think you have the upper hand, but Pogacar was really crafty there going at the end of the steep bit. It was a great move: just when Jonas had finished his effort and relaxed a bit on the start of those easier slopes where Pogacar getting the initial break would have appeared to be the hardest, but Tadej actually had the best chance at gaining time if he managed to get away. I think the unfortunate lesson for Vingegaard -one that so many fans have never learned- is that it's a bad idea to keep attacking if you can't drop your main rivals. Unless you're a lot stronger, you eventually pay for the energy you spend. It would seem that it would be more fun if that wasn't true, but it just is. And, if you come to terms with it, it's also a feature that gives the sport some complexity and an additional layer of resources to manage and risk to weigh, it offers fans a sense that riders are human after all, and it provides racing a strategic subtext that goes beyond power and tactics.

But mostly it's great to see we still have a Tour. And it's also good to see Rodriguez going for it after seeing Ineos completely counted out even for a top-5. I do wish Bernal and Hindley had a bit more in their legs, because having someone else up there really willing to attack is always good for the show, and two-horse races can turn to one-horse races pretty quickly. As for Ineos it seems that they do want to give Pidcock a run at GC, and with Martinez and Fraile not starting out so well they need more help for Carlos, and if Egan is clearly not fighting for a podium but up to help then this might be the best way to play it. I do hope we at least get a fun battle for that third spot between Hindley, Simon Yates, Rodriguez, Gaudu and Bardet.
 
I love this Tour so far. I remember the '80's and early 90's Tours and the first week was often long flat stages, very boring. This one has been incredible so far. So many great stories and battles.
I'm not sure who will win this race, but the quality of the winner is often due to the quality of his rival(s). Pog and Vingo could not be more different personality-wise and it's brilliant to watch them fight on. Now if Cav could win tomorrow, this could be even better!
 
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Niermann is arrogant. There, I said it. But it's true.

People *** & moan about wheelsuckers or conservative tactics or mountain sprinters or trains or whatnot but at the end of the day Vingegaard had a healthy lead over Pog this morning & some psychological dominance as well. So, all Jumbo needed to do from here on was counter Pog's moves which would have become increasingly desperate as the Tour advanced.

But, instead they go for a Granon repeat with 'total cycling' & their leader launching it hard & deep on the Tourmalet to link up with Wout van Aert. I mean on the PlayStation that might look like a cool idea but this is real life.

Amazingly self defeating brainless way to race. Vingegaard literally handed 28 seconds to Pog on a silver platter. He also exposed his own limitations (which is absolutely not smart at all). Now Pog knows he can hurt him.
Your approach is actually more arrogant. Because you expect to be able to counter all of Pogi's moves and you expect a 50 second buffer to be easily enough, when he always outsprints you and is more explosive in general.

If you have the chance to finish him off you have to take it. And yesterday it sure looked like that chance would be imminent. It wasn't, but it's high risk, high reward (and in this case, just a small loss).
 
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So they don't backload the route and instead of everybody jostling for position tentatively because they're scared of what's to come, we get a great first week. Now I know that in 2020 they had every opportunity to create action in week 1 too and it was a complete and utter disaster, but 2020 was also a very weird year in terms of the pandemic and everything as well. For so much of my cycling fandom, the Giro was where it was at because you had all those guys that wanted to win, whereas at the Tour a placement was so important that not losing time was more important than gaining it. In recent years that's just turned completely around.

Now, of course, the optimism for the rest of the race is kind of contingent on both of the big two being there, because it's a clear two-horse race again with a secondary battle to be best of the rest and complete the podium. Races can have some great stages at least and be decent races even if it's a one-horse race (take the 2011 Giro, for example, and also a number of stages especially in the first half of the 2021 Tour when Pogačar was stomping everybody but leaving carnage in his wake), but it's a breath of fresh air that the race could totally die down to predictability from here and it's still already been decent. All too often we get backloaded races where everything simmers away and you're still operating on the hope that it will ignite for the last few stages. But stage 6 has just finished and we've already almost as much racing as the 2022 and 2023 Giri put together.

Jumbo continue to be basically male SD Worx. The tactics vary considerably, occasionally they are superb, sometimes they're OK, and all too often they're extremely questionable... but the insane strength in depth of their team is such that it becomes a moot point because they can bludgeon their way to victory with the legs they have, and sometimes they win because of themselves, and sometimes they win despite themselves. They finally seem to have learned how to deploy Sepp Kuss as the race-breaking force he can be if utilised to his strengths, but at the same time the use of van Aert still sends mixed messages and confuses. If he was going to be domestiquing for Jonas then why was Wout pulling the break for kilometre after kilometre? Either way, I'm not going to complain about the spectacle it gave us especially as in the end Pogačar proved the stronger man on the day and keeps it tight going into Puy de Dôme.

And though I may joke about us seeing August in July nowadays with the insane speeds that are being put out, and I may compare Wout to Cândido Barbosa, and I may criticise the Jumbo DSes plenty... they have shown the capacity to do something great once in a while, and unlike the lunatics that inhabit team cars in Portugal they weren't spending Jonas to domestique for Wout like Liberty Seguros losing the Volta by making Héctor Guerra tow Cândido's fat 80kg behind up the HC mountains (while he drops a dozen Operación Puerto guys in the process).
 
Your approach is actually more arrogant. Because you expect to be able to counter all of Pogi's moves and you expect a 50 second buffer to be easily enough, when he always outsprints you and is more explosive in general.

If you have the chance to finish him off you have to take it. And yesterday it sure looked like that chance would be imminent. It wasn't, but it's high risk, high reward (and in this case, just a small loss).

I've never actually seen a Tour holder with a minute or thereabouts lead over his main rival in GC launch a long distance attack like that. So chapeau for the fun I guess but it was entirely brainless.

They thought they were invincible.
 
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I mean fair enough, but after it didn't work on the Tourmalet, why bother continuing? If the aim was to drop Pogacar, why did Vingegaard pull him for multiple km. Why did he keep pulling him for like 4 km on the final climb? You can't tell me that was still about killing off Pogacar.
With 2 minutes on the group behind and WVA in the group there was no reason to stop after Toumalet. As for the last climb, if he stops pulling after he sees he can't drop Pogi maybe he looses less time, but maybe Pogi attacks earlier and he looses even more.
 
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I love this Tour so far. I remember the '80's and early 90's Tours and the first week was often long flat stages, very boring. This one has been incredible so far. So many great stories and battles.
I'm not sure who will win this race, but the quality of the winner is often due to the quality of his rival(s). Pog and Vingo could not be more different personality-wise and it's brilliant to watch them fight on. Now if Cav could win tomorrow, this could be even better!
Speaking of 80s/90s Tours... it feels like the very controlled, boring, predictable racing of the Sky era was the Indurain era, and now we're in the days of the racing being more like it was in the free-for-all days between Jalabert's '95 Vuelta (I will win sprints! I will win mountains! I will give gifts! I have no end to my energy!), and Pantani's being ejected from the '99 Giro when all hell broke loose and you had the likes of Olano and Ullrich doing tempo riding but at tempos that blew everybody to pieces, and the likes of Jiménez and Pantani lighting it up from wherever they damn well pleased only to then be completely blown up the next day, or vice versa.
 
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No, they respect Pogacar more than you do.

Do they? I got the opposite impression. Respecting Pog would have meant letting the break go (so the bonus seconds are out of his reach because his mountain sprint is better) & then sitting on Pog's wheel on Cauterets, or attacking hard late to see if they could drop him.

Jumbo wanted the jackpot & got burned hard because they disrespected their adversary & overestimated their own powers.
 
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Do they? I got the opposite impression. Respecting Pog would have meant letting the break go (so the bonus seconds are out of his reach because his mountain sprint is better) & then sitting on Pog's wheel on Cauterets, or attacking hard late to see if they could drop him.

Jumbo wanted the jackpot & got burned hard because they disrespected their adversary & overestimated their own powers.
I think they feared him, and that's why they wanted to see if they could put in the coup-de-grace now, hoping that yesterday would mean he's still not at 100% today. Even with Vingegaard's strength, Pogacar wasn't someone they likely wanted to be within a minute entering the Alpes.
 
Do they? I got the opposite impression. Respecting Pog would have meant letting the break go (so the bonus seconds are out of his reach because his mountain sprint is better) & then sitting on Pog's wheel on Cauterets, or attacking hard late to see if they could drop him.

Jumbo wanted the jackpot & got burned hard because they disrespected their adversary & overestimated their own powers.
They make an entire stage super hard because they believe that's the only way they can drop him. They don't care about any other rider or any other team, they only race against Pogacar. Now if that's not respecting your opponent I don't know what is.
 
It's always easy to say in hindsight this was stupid from JV but after yesterday it was more than reasonable to try to finish off Pogacar here. It would have been stupid if they didn't. If your opponent seems vulnerable you have to seize the opportunity.
Yeah, you just know that if Jumbo sat on their fingers, the same posters would be screaming in this thread, ridiculing them for not doing something. There was reasonable doubt regarding the form of Pogacar. You do not miss that opportunity before it's too late.
 
They eliminated 1 out of 2 competitors. I'd say job well done.
I think they feared him, and that's why they wanted to see if they could put in the coup-de-grace now, hoping that yesterday would mean he's still not at 100% today. Even with Vingegaard's strength, Pogacar wasn't someone they likely wanted to be within a minute entering the Alpes.
They make an entire stage super hard because they believe that's the only way they can drop him. They don't care about any other rider or any other team, they only race against Pogacar. Now if that's not respecting your opponent I don't know what is.
It's always easy to say in hindsight this was stupid from JV but after yesterday it was more than reasonable to try to finish off Pogacar here. It would have been stupid if they didn't. If your opponent seems vulnerable you have to seize the opportunity.

Guys, Jumbo Visma has a particular history (especially in the Tour) in which they're very self-aware of their own carefully curated image, i.e. an image of 'total cycling' born out of an attempt to replicate the Dutch 1970's national football team philosophy in cycling.

You need to understand Jumbo in order to understand what happened today. They don't give a sh*t about Pog, he's just an opponent they want to demolish, like any other. The whole point is the imagery (& marketing) of their brute force collective dominance. They attempted to turn the Tourmalet into "Granon chapter two" when they didn't even know Vingegaard's own limitations.

Well, they found out. So did UAE.
 
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Today was ambitious of Jumbo, but it blew up in their face.

The momentum they had... is now gone or at least dampered a bit.

They was brought down to earth and that this race is far from finished. They have the yellow jersey now, but a narrow lead.

MTF on Sunday. I dont know, who that suits better but Kuss will be of more use for Vinge here.