After yesterday UAE have absolutely no reason to control this break. They have the gap they need, now they just have to play it defensively without taking unnecessary risks. Today will be very hard to control and Jonas probably profits from a harder pace throughout the stage, so the only team that might have any interest in controlling is Visma. I think without yesterdays beating that would have been their plan today, but I wonder if they dare to challenge Pogi right now. Todays stage isn't that much harder than yesterdays after all. I wouldn't be surprised if they prefer to live to fight another day and go all out on the final three stages. Make this stage really hard and you might end up gifting another minute to Pogacar. And then it gets really, really hard to win.
So yeah, I'm expecting a breakaway win and would absolutely love it if Felix Gall tried to sneak in there.