Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 4: Pinerolo > Valloire, 139.6 km

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

If it's a headwind then remco will win easily. He is the most aero.

It doesn't let me turn off the italic

No worries. That's the most aerodynamic font.

 

[Earns1985]

Best bet for EF today to hold the yellow jersey would be, that they let a breakaway escape, which is enough time behind in the GC.

Then Carapaz only has to follow the others at the Galibier and finish in the same time. With bonus seconds going to the breakaway, Carapaz would in this scenario keep the jersey.

Of course, let a breakaway escape with riders far enough behind is easier that than done after 3 stages and also chase Pogacar and Vingegaard without losing time is easier said than done. And it´s also really questionable, if UAE and Visma will let the breakaway take the stage. But this is more or less the only scenario, in which I could see EF keep the jersey.

 

[scribers]

The other teams would not let it. At least not Ayuso.

They would because he’s the fourth rider in succession of uae at this moment. They can’t stop this avalanche

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I'm pretty excited for also being fully aware that this might be a non event GC wise.
But it's the first actual test, the altitude is high, and you never know.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Just bumped in, will read up the thread later with additinal inputs, but my immediate thoughts for today's menu::

I could easily imagine the stage winner found from the breakaway.

And, hence, that we would have the very nice two-races-in-one
To me that's just more races to watch Just as like stage 1 + 2 ; heck of some closing stages of those. And reason why I've always been very keen to this, in fact more than legends writing mythical climbs into history with stage wins.

1 : For a sub 140k super-short stage and with the starters in mind, a breakaway with the right climbers and kings of false flat fast forward (e.g. maybe Mohoric) will rapidly gain a huge margin with just the slightest minutes of hesitation in the GC peleton.

2: UAE will not dare to make a Schleck-kind of attack in the early stages of today, now that they have better indications of Jonas' climbing abilities. This tiny "unknown unknown" with Jonas' ability in his normal home ground - the high mountains I strongly doubt that they will challenge from the very beginning, possibly causing backfire for Pogi, not only today, but added up during Le Tour.

3: With the above, I am therefore quite sure (shoot me) that todays stage winner will be found from the breakaway - after the initial war the break will rapidly sail into the horizon.

4: That said, UAE and Visma will likely continue to work to make the race a two-game affair and aim to knock off Evenepoel and Roglic (edit: And Carapaz now seems more likely for Visma+UAE to watch!). Although the south side of the Galibier is a completely different forgiving size of story than the Galibier north side climb (have tried both climbs myself several times over the years), after all, with strong UAE and Visma teams and especially with a headwind - of which is the typical wind direction from Briançon towards Lautrerets (without having checked the weather forecast) - and the tunnel effect from Lautaret summit to towards Galibier summit also tends to have a big effect, so I think it is written into both UAE's and Visma's roadbooks for today.

5: Jonas has shown that he is not afraid of downhills, so don't immediately think that Pogi can take a long time here. It was otherwise my thought up to stage 2 final that Pogi could create a rather large margin Galibier downhill section, if Jonas e.g. lost 30 sec on Stage 2 with this in mind for UAE and a longer run-up with e.g. strong cooperation Pogi + Ayuso (we have that cooperation to our credit, let's see it today) and then a completely devastating difference in the first 3-5km down the north side of Galibier. I don't think that is relevant anymore. Here I am more nervous about Stef Cras.

 

[scribers]

This is a km0 mandatory watching stage

 

[Miha81]

They would because he’s the fourth rider in succession of uae at this moment. They can’t stop this avalanche

Overconfidence already killed this teams and his leader TDF hope once. I hope they learned from their mistakes and won't feel unstopable as some users seem to see them

 

[Berniece]

I'm pretty excited for also being fully aware that this might be a non event GC wise.
But it's the first actual test, the altitude is high, and you never know.

Someone will fail and drop already. We might not see differences between Pogacar and Vingegaard, but in the top 10 race, riders will drop and it will be more clear who is an actual contender.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

This is a km0 mandatory watching stage

Thank you for reminding me that I need to go to the supermarket before the stage starts.

 

[Boehmand]

So what kind of a break do we think this stage will yield?
A collection of nobodies?
A bunch of sprinters and lead out riders continuing after the intermediate sprint?
Serious candidates eyeing the manageable gradients and final high speed descent?

Will the sprinter teams shut down all moves before the sprint?
Will UAE shut down any moves with serious threats to the stage win?
Will EF ride to control, or send someone like Powless in the break?

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I have no clue why we are finishing in a descent. Someone will crash

I pretty much understand your worries.
Downhill Galibier northside is quite hairy all way down to Pantani memorial, think it's 8-9k down, but most hairy for the first 3k of the descent.

However, in dry conditions it's not a real issue for professinal riders - even I as a crazy non-lincensed amateur have gone full attack mode, but must admit there was no snow or slippery roads.

It's a competely other story for a situation in wet road conditions and if the riders end up in a situation where seconds can make a decisive difference.

Because here you are absolutely right that there is a huge difference between whether the Galibier with the descent towards Valloire is just "an early bump on the route" or part of an absolute and time-determining finale.

I definitely see your points, but in dry weather it rains I don't think it will be a problem. I think it was in 2019 that we had a similar (identical) decision without a crash.

 

[Miha81]

Thank you for reminding me that I need to go to the supermarket before the stage starts.

I am working from home, dog is walked, wifey voluntered that she will take children to playground and lunch is almost ready. So nothing will interrupt this stage

 

[scribers]

Overconfidence already killed this teams and his leader TDF hope once. I hope they learned from their mistakes and won't feel unstopable as some users seem to see them

I see it differently than this. There’s value in great climbers up the road. Particularly with a long downhill finish

 

[Boehmand]

I pretty much understand your worries.
Downhill Galibier northside is quite hairy all way down to Pantani memorial, think it's 8-9k down, but most hairy for the first 3k of the descent.

However, in dry conditions it's not a real issue for professinal riders - even I as a crazy non-lincensed amateur have gone full attack mode, but must admit there was no snow or slippery roads.

It's a competely other story for a situation in wet road conditions and if the riders end up in a situation where seconds can make a decisive difference.

Because here you are absolutely right that there is a huge difference between whether the Galibier with the descent towards Valloire is just "an early bump on the route" or part of an absolute and time-determining finale.

I definitely see your points, but in dry weather it rains I don't think it will be a problem. I think it was in 2019 that we had a similar (identical) decision without a crash.

I read somewhere the descent is only technical at the very beginning, and from then on mostly fairly straight road and high speed?

 

[Rob5091]

It's time for race organisers (whether it's the TdF or any other race) to reduce the workload of the jersey wearers at the end of a stage.

It's absurd that we've reached the point where holding the jersey is seen as a burden. Not just tactically but also in terms of post-stage ceremonial & media commitments.

Le Maillot Jaune should be the greatest objective in stage racing. Instead, it's like a hot potato.

Apart from the obvious bucket full of UCI points there is also the advantage of being first in the teamcars convey but otherwise I can understand guys wanting to skip all the "après race" stuff for a shower or the ice tub.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Whatever Pog does, you can guarantee Vingo will be on his wheel the whole way. Ving will make his move in the 3rd week, when Pog has tired from his Giro and his attempts to gain time on Vingo early this tour. So we could have a Pog/Vingo Rog/Rem wheelsucking competition going, albeit in different areas of the stage.

 

[shadowrider]

Solid headwind tomorrow on Galibier as well as on most of the stage.

Like I wrote in the Pogacar thread, I feel this stage is heavily overrated because of the lack of steep gradients (and the expected headwind). However, given that Pog and Vingegaard basically managed to put 30 seconds into everyone bar Remco and Carapaz on a 5 minute climb there's still some solid hope that we get fireworks. I feel a lot will depend on how hard breakaway formation will be. The longer it takes for the break to form the harder the race will be because with gradients slowly ramping up, the impact of drafting becomes less for everyone just trying to chill in the peleton. If we get a nuclear first hour than we're probably in for a good show.
One thing is sure, if you're dropped of what I expect to be a stiff Yates tempo on Galibier and you have no teammates around you, you will lose big time in the headwind on your own. Could mean some top 10/5 GC hopes annihilated early in the Tour tomorrow.

The headwind gonna play a role. So, I don't think Pogacar will start to attack early on the Galibierclimb. But especially on Galibier, during the difficult, steep last km, at an altitude of 2400 to 2600 m, the real climbers and monstruous GC-riders as Pogacar and Vingegaard (he is already strong but we are not sure yet of his topshape) will (try to) destroy the Evenepoel-type of GC-riders.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I read somewhere the descent is only technical at the very beginning, and from then on mostly fairly straight road and high speed?

Yes exactly my point, first 2-3k most hairy and from there on medium hairy to Pantani Memorial after 8-9k and from there on to Valloire: piece of cake, though very high speeds.

Edit, ok will not be able to read thread before race start. Got busy yet again.

 

[shadowrider]

I have no clue why we are finishing in a descent. Someone will crash

Indeed. I don't like those arrivals after a difficult descent. Some riders will take risks, especially to come back or limit the damage.

 

[shadowrider]

Help me understand this because I've read conflicting reports.

Despite not being the highest point of the race, Galibier will award the souvenir Henri Desgrange, but at the same time it will not award double KOM points (Bonette will)?

The Galibier is always awarded the Henri Desgrange.... if in a stage. The other years it's the climb with the highest point.

 

[ontheroad]

Van Aert and Soler have lost a lot of time already so it wouldn't suprise me to see either or both sent up the road as a satellite rider. UAE need to use their strength in depth in this race and send one of either Ayuso, Almeida or Yates off the front on the attack at some point.

 

[shadowrider]

Just bumped in, will read up the thread later with additinal inputs, but my immediate thoughts for today's menu::

I could easily imagine the stage winner found from the breakaway.

And, hence, that we would have the very nice two-races-in-one
To me that's just more races to watch Just as like stage 1 + 2 ; heck of some closing stages of those. And reason why I've always been very keen to this, in fact more than legends writing mythical climbs into history with stage wins.

1 : For a sub 140k super-short stage and with the starters in mind, a breakaway with the right climbers and kings of false flat fast forward (e.g. maybe Mohoric) will rapidly gain a huge margin with just the slightest minutes of hesitation in the GC peleton.

2: UAE will not dare to make a Schleck-kind of attack in the early stages of today, now that they have better indications of Jonas' climbing abilities. This tiny "unknown unknown" with Jonas' ability in his normal home ground - the high mountains I strongly doubt that they will challenge from the very beginning, possibly causing backfire for Pogi, not only today, but added up during Le Tour.

3: With the above, I am therefore quite sure (shoot me) that todays stage winner will be found from the breakaway - after the initial war the break will rapidly sail into the horizon.

4: That said, UAE and Visma will likely continue to work to make the race a two-game affair and aim to knock off Evenepoel and Roglic (edit: And Carapaz now seems more likely for Visma+UAE to watch!). Although the south side of the Galibier is a completely different forgiving size of story than the Galibier north side climb (have tried both climbs myself several times over the years), after all, with strong UAE and Visma teams and especially with a headwind - of which is the typical wind direction from Briançon towards Lautrerets (without having checked the weather forecast) - and the tunnel effect from Lautaret summit to towards Galibier summit also tends to have a big effect, so I think it is written into both UAE's and Visma's roadbooks for today.

5: Jonas has shown that he is not afraid of downhills, so don't immediately think that Pogi can take a long time here. It was otherwise my thought up to stage 2 final that Pogi could create a rather large margin Galibier downhill section, if Jonas e.g. lost 30 sec on Stage 2 with this in mind for UAE and a longer run-up with e.g. strong cooperation Pogi + Ayuso (we have that cooperation to our credit, let's see it today) and then a completely devastating difference in the first 3-5km down the north side of Galibier. I don't think that is relevant anymore. Here I am more nervous about Stef Cras.

But Vingegaard was not at ease in the descent in stage 2 (which was understandable after his crash in Iztulia). I'm sure that, if Poga had made a gap at the top, Vingegaard would have lost extra time in the descent. The same today. If Pogacar can drop Vingegaard before the summit, he will take extra time in the descent. Also during the last flatter and easier part of the descent.

 

[motty89]

All this talk about headwind is giving me etna vibes. Hopefully UAE launch and cause some carnage.

 

[Miha81]

I see it differently than this. There’s value in great climbers up the road. Particularly with a long downhill finish

It is if they can get them there. But even in this case Jonas has to be dropped. Otherwise is just a race for couple of bonus seconds.

 

[scribers]

Think Kuss in the break early in the race at the vuelta. It applies pressure that can break teams