Tour de France Tour de France 2024, Stage 4: Pinerolo > Valloire, 139.6 km

[CyclistAbi]

It's like everybody expects for Tour to be decided on this stage, although i agree this stage is a nice playground for GC riders, likely far from being the decisive one. What we will be able to enjoy, though, internal team hierarchies getting unfold. I mean will they even catch the breakaway or will they over do it and for what result.

Should be fun.

 

[movingtarget]

Unusual stage at this time of the race. Roglic can't afford another mediocre climbing day. This stage may test Vingegaard's condition more, depending on how UAE race it. Should be a decent sized breakaway group.

 

[Rob5091]

Grupetto from km0, at least 30 guys in the break, EF slow paces until Ineos with their Pavlovian reaction to climbs grind the train uphill until Pogacar gets bored and we have to put on our Oppenheimer googles.
Big question is can Remco & Roglic hold on or will it be damage limitations time?

 

[scribers]

Remco-roglic-carapaz (in that order) in a wheel suck fest amongst first humans

 

[Oldermanish]

It's like everybody expects for Tour to be decided on this stage, although i agree this stage is a nice playground for GC riders, likely far from being the decisive one. What we will be able to enjoy, though, internal team hierarchies getting unfold. I mean will they even catch the breakaway or will they over do it and for what result.

Should be fun.

It should be. Notable is that CN's Dani is considering Remco and Roglic as an afterthought to Carapaz defending against the Visma, UAE onslaught.
One of those two will be in the mix. One of the two "faves" who have climbed one congested climb and pried out 20 seconds are the foregone conclusion of benefactors.
The end could be much neutral BS or true potentials being revealed. My guess would be a hard race, mano y mano could have Pogi and a teammate dropping everyone except Mateo. He'll have to "lose" his earpiece as Wout and Jonas lose 5 minutes. Just as plausible as Jonas rising from the dead.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Big question is can Remco & Roglic hold on

Yes

... or will it be damage limitations time?

Also yes...

FOR POG & VINGE HAHAHAHAHA

As you were.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The reason why the Tour had never started in Italy before, is that they didn't want the Alps to come in the first week. Now they've found a creative solution by doing one Alpine stage in the first week and returning in the third week.

This stage has no less than 70 km of climbing, but mostly at a low gradient. They're not doing the Pantani/Télégraphe side of the Galibier, but the gentler Lautaret side. It's still a tough climb, because of its height and because it gets harder in the final four km. There are some steep bends shortly before the top. UAE or Visma will probably set a pace to reduce the group and prepare a possible attack in the final four km of the climb. After that comes a long, technical, dangerous descent. Hopefully there won't be any crashes.

This might go to a GC rider in a sprint with a small group or solo, but climbers who have already lost time might also have a go. Perhaps Lenny Martinez, Gaudu or Lutsenko? For Evenepoel this will be a big test. He's among the best in the low and middle mountains, but he still needs to prove that he can follow the elite climbers at high altitude. For Carapaz it won't be obvious to stay in yellow, because even if he hangs on with the best he can still lose it on bonus seconds.

 

[Rackham]

Typical Visma tactics, seen this time and time again.

If UAE want to actually do something good with their 'super team', they'd chase Van Aert down whenever he attempts to get in the break.

This stage by & large might tell us more about UAE's intentions in this Tour, i.e. because boasting about all the big names in their team means very little if it's every man for himself. For example I'd be curious to see Ayuso actually pulling for Pog instead of just riding for himself.

They've got the strength but will they use it properly?

 

[Berniece]

If UAE want to actually do something good with their 'super team', they'd chase Van Aert down whenever he attempts to get in the break.

This stage by & large might tell us more about UAE's intentions in this Tour, i.e. because boasting about all the big names in their team means very little if it's every man for himself. For example I'd be curious to see Ayuso actually pulling for Pog instead of just riding for himself.

They've got the strength but will they use it properly?

They just don’t have the same culture as Visma. It’s not one for all, and all for one. If they wanted they could win this TDF easily, I think. They just have to play their numbers. Problem is they don’t want to win the TDF with the team, it has to be Pogacar. That’s why it’s still difficult.

 

[Miha81]

They just don’t have the same culture as Visma. It’s not one for all, and all for one. If they wanted they could win this TDF easily, I think. They just have to play their numbers. Problem is they don’t want to win the TDF with the team, it has to be Pogacar. That’s why it’s still difficult.

Maybe the 2nd stage will ring some bells or will they just stick to their original plan?

At least in this year edition they somehow broke their definition of insanity by doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. They haven't won any bonuses

 

[Barkintheeye]

Unusual stage at this time of the race. Roglic can't afford another mediocre climbing day. This stage may test Vingegaard's condition more, depending on how UAE race it. Should be a decent sized breakaway group.

Maybe the first real test of the teams. Can Visma hold up againstUAE? Pog and Vingo will be watching along with the the DSOs.

 

[Berniece]

Maybe the 2nd stage will ring some bells or will they just stick to their original plan?

At least in this year edition they somehow broke their definition of insanity by doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. They haven't won any bonuses

Who knows. If I was them I would send Ayuso and Wellens/Politt up front. Ayuso will be happy he can do his own thing, and then other teams can try to catch then. If Ayuso is almost caught, Pogacar can still bridge to him, and do his work then.

 

[Miha81]

Who knows. If I was them I would send Ayuso and Wellens/Politt up front. Ayuso will be happy he can do his own thing, and then other teams can try to catch then. If Ayuso is almost caught, Pogacar can still bridge to him, and do his work then.

The other teams would not let it. At least not Ayuso.

 

[Rackham]

Who knows. If I was them I would send Ayuso and Wellens/Politt up front. Ayuso will be happy he can do his own thing, and then other teams can try to catch then. If Ayuso is almost caught, Pogacar can still bridge to him, and do his work then.

If I was them I'd get the entire team to set a monster tempo on the Galibier, one rider after another. Yates would be the final launchpad for Pog's attack within the final 5km of the summit.

This would create huge gaps in GC versus everyone who drops. Maybe Vinge goes along, it's possible, but that doesn't matter. At least they'd then reduce GC down to a fight between two riders.

Any attempt by UAE to have 'multiple cards' in GC is just outright ridiculous. Their job today should be to put Vingegaard & Visma in the hurt locker at this early stage just in case Vingegaard gets even better in the third week. You're not going to beat a fit Vingegaard with Juan Ayuso so what's the point of protecting his GC placings? If Ayuso doesn't work for Pog, they'd have been better off taking Majka.

 

[Berniece]

The other teams would not let it. At least not Ayuso.

I don't know. They never seem to care when Visma sends WVA, Benoot, Kelderman, or even Kuss ahead.

If I was them I'd get the entire team to set a monster tempo on the Galibier, one rider after another. Yates would be the final launchpad for Pog's attack within the final 5km of the summit.

This would create huge gaps in GC versus everyone who drops. Maybe Vinge goes along, it's possible, but that doesn't matter. At least they'd then reduce GC down to a fight between two riders.

Any attempt by UAE to have 'multiple cards' in GC is just outright ridiculous. Their job today should be to put Vingegaard & Visma in the hurt locker at this early stage just in case Vingegaard gets even better in the third week. You're not going to beat a fit Vingegaard with Juan Ayuso so what's the point of protecting his GC placings? If Ayuso doesn't work for Pog, they'd have been better off taking Majka.

There is too much wind on the Galibier, and it's not so steep. So they would only blow themselves up if they only set a monster pace to drop as many people as possible.

 

[Miha81]

I don't know. They never seem to care when Visma sends WVA, Benoot, Kelderman, or even Kuss ahead.

None of them was considered GC threat in the past. But I guess it depends how they look on Ayuso and if Visma will try to prevent this to UAE.

 

[Colombiano Cadence]

So Pogi saying he didn’t want yellow in Stage 2 (but still attacked and rode all the way to 200m from line)
He sat up yesterday to give the yellow to Carapaz.
But we are all led to believe they will go full bung today, meaning he will likely take back the yellow jersey, and that would mean wearing it in the TT on Friday.
If you genuinely don’t want yellow at the moment, why would you go full bung today? Makes no sense

 

[Rackham]

So Pogi saying he didn’t want yellow in Stage 2 (but still attacked and rode all the way to 200m from line)
He sat up yesterday to give the yellow to Carapaz.
But we are all led to believe they will go full bung today, meaning he will likely take back the yellow jersey, and that would mean wearing it in the TT on Friday.
If you genuinely don’t want yellow at the moment, why would you go full bung today? Makes no sense

Because this is a GT & he needs to gain time on everyone - especially Vingegaard who might have questionable form at the moment on a long col.

If avoiding yellow = deliberately not gaining time when he can (including on his main rivals), then I don't understand cycling anymore. Especially from a rider who hasn't won this race since 2021.

I don't know. They never seem to care when Visma sends WVA, Benoot, Kelderman, or even Kuss ahead.


There is too much wind on the Galibier, and it's not so steep. So they would only blow themselves up if they only set a monster pace to drop as many people as possible.

I've found these sorts of really long cols can be deceptive tbh, i.e. with enough pace for long enough, an attack on a shallow gradient at high altitude can still cause serious damage. Yeah he'd get wind in his face but so would the riders chasing.

Considering the next real mountain test isn't until stage 14, I'd be amazed if they don't go for it today.

 

[CleanCiclismo]

So Pogi saying he didn’t want yellow in Stage 2 (but still attacked and rode all the way to 200m from line)
He sat up yesterday to give the yellow to Carapaz.
But we are all led to believe they will go full bung today, meaning he will likely take back the yellow jersey, and that would mean wearing it in the TT on Friday.
If you genuinely don’t want yellow at the moment, why would you go full bung today? Makes no sense

If I'm Pog I want to start after Jonas in the ITT. It's a huge advantage to know how fast your main rival is, so you can adjust during the race. Plus it would be a huge mental boost after last year if he is faster than him.

 

[Bolder]

I couldn't follow yesterday's stage closely bc of work, but is the consensus that UAE wasn't paying attention and lost yellow to a clever tactic? I don't see a situation today in which UAE doesn't try to control the pace once the race passes through Brianćon. So losing yellow "deliberately" doesn't make sense in that context.

I expect EF to try to keep yellow with all their might but I don't think that helps either UAE or Visma.

 

[Rackham]

It's time for race organisers (whether it's the TdF or any other race) to reduce the workload of the jersey wearers at the end of a stage.

It's absurd that we've reached the point where holding the jersey is seen as a burden. Not just tactically but also in terms of post-stage ceremonial & media commitments.

Le Maillot Jaune should be the greatest objective in stage racing. Instead, it's like a hot potato.

 

[Wvv]

Just descend safely guys.

 

[Blanco]

Roglic ftw.

 

[Berniece]

I've found these sorts of really long cols can be deceptive tbh, i.e. with enough pace for long enough, an attack on a shallow gradient at high altitude can still cause serious damage. Yeah he'd get wind in his face but so would the riders chasing.

Considering the next real mountain test isn't until stage 14, I'd be amazed if they don't go for it today.

Yes, but if you are immediately on the persons wheel or close to it, you've got the draft advantage. Only if a rider is able to take 5-6m draft advantage will drop. I don't see Pogacar accelerate so quickly that he's able to drop Vingegaard for 5-6m.

 

[meat puppet]

Yes, but if you are immediately on the persons wheel or close to it, you've got the draft advantage. Only if a rider is able to take 5-6m draft advantage will drop. I don't see Pogacar accelerate so quickly that he's able to drop Vingegaard for 5-6m.

UnlessJV is not feeling sharp for whatever reason and hesitates a bit. In this case it would be game on.