Tour de France 2024 - The battle of the big 4

[AmRacer]

The problem of Pogacar is not the riding of the Giro itself. Winning his sixt stage Pogacar still seemed very strong and fresh. But after the Giro, Pogacar can only rest for at most three days. The time remaining until the Tour is too short to reduce and then rebuild top form. So, after the short rest (and traveling home and/or to the training location) he has to keep his form high till the start of the Tour de France. That will cause the "fatigue" that will lead to weakening during the second half of the Tour. I don't know whether this will mean that he will no longer be able to follow Vingegaard (at 98%) and Roglic and Evenepoel during the second half of the Tour. Or that he will have built up enough of a lead during the first week (hill stages and Galibier) to compensate for the weakening during the last days.

He said he will rest for a week and then go to altitude for a couple of weeks.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The problem of Pogacar is not the riding of the Giro itself. Winning his sixt stage Pogacar still seemed very strong and fresh. But after the Giro, Pogacar can only rest for at most three days. The time remaining until the Tour is too short to reduce and then rebuild top form. So, after the short rest (and traveling home and/or to the training location) he has to keep his form high till the start of the Tour de France. That will cause the "fatigue" that will lead to weakening during the second half of the Tour. I don't know whether this will mean that he will no longer be able to follow Vingegaard (at 98%) and Roglic and Evenepoel during the second half of the Tour. Or that he will have built up enough of a lead during the first week (hill stages and Galibier) to compensate for the weakening during the last days.

He will have a week of total rest. I agree this between Giro-Tour period is way too little time for another form building cycle. They indeed are aiming to prolong his top form by this rest period + training + another rest just before the Tour. It's a hard task but keep in mind that he's been in a great form since start of March with no signs of slowing down. They want to prolong it even more till the end of the Tour and according to a recent interview relatively small number of racing days so far (31) is the foundation of it.

There is also another possibility: he hasn't peaked yet and will do it at the Tour (if it's possible that the Giro was a part of form building process without peaking and without exhaustion...I will believe it only when I see it). Reading some UAE interviews it's almost looking this way.

 

[shadowrider]

He will have a week of total rest. I agree this Giro-Tour period is way too little time for another form building cycle. They indeed are aiming to prolong his top form by this rest period + training + another rest just before the Tour. It's a hard task but keep in mind that he's been in a great form since start of March with no signs of slowing down. They want to prolong it even more till the end of the Tour and according to a recent interview relatively small number of racing days so far (31) is the foundation of it.

There is also another possibility: he hasn't peaked yet and will do it at the Tour (only if it's possible that the Giro was a part of form building process...I will believe it only when I see it)

I'm not blaming Pogacar and his team to to try out the double. In contrary. It's fantastic for the sport and the spectacle. I'm just stating that Pogacar won't be able to perform at top level for the entire Tour. Which is good for his opponents and even more so for us, the audience. Pogacar seems to have become even stronger this season. If he would only contest the Tour and Vingegaard would also be in top form, I think the battle would have been very even. With perhaps a slight preference for Pogacar.
Pogacar with the double and Vingegaard in top form, then Vingegaard always wins (same situation as last year). As it looks now, with Vingegaard at 98% (or not participating), Roglic perfectly prepared, Bernal perfectly prepared, Evenepoel at 99%, then Roglic wins ahead of Pogacar, Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Bernal (although numbers three, four and five also could change places).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I'm just stating that Pogacar won't be able to perform at top level for the entire Tour.

I don't disagree, this is an absolutely logical conclusion. Time will tell what Pogacar and UAE have in store for the Tour, I'm curious myself. Pogacar is an extraordinary rider, who can be close to top form for months so who knows, maybe they will defy logic.

 

[shadowrider]

I don't disagree, this is an absolutely logical conclusion. Time will tell what Pogacar and UAE have in store for the Tour, I'm curious myself. Pogacar is an extraordinary rider, who can be close to top form for months so who knows, maybe they will defy logic.

With Vingegaard in top form, logic would be respected, and Vingegaard would win.

I am convinced that Pogacar will be prepared in such a way that he will still be close to his top form. Without Vingegaard (or not in top form) he may still win the Tour. Because Roglic (almost 35), Evenepoel (not at his best in a three weeks Tour) and Bernal (with his level of 2019, but not further evolved) are one level lower.

 

[Berniece]

I don't disagree, this is an absolutely logical conclusion. Time will tell what Pogacar and UAE have in store for the Tour, I'm curious myself. Pogacar is an extraordinary rider, who can be close to top form for months so who knows, maybe they will defy logic.

I felt he was a bit fading last year in the Ardennes classics. The Pogacar at the level of De Ronde would have done an even better job at Amstel. But this year he is stronger, AND a different trainer which might make all the difference.

 

[Froome]

He said he will rest for a week and then go to altitude for a couple of weeks.

A bit strange rest for a week since Matxin said he was saving energy during the Giro for the Tour, and since it was training during 3 weeks.

 

[AmRacer]

A bit strange rest for a week since Matxin said he was saving energy during the Giro for the Tour, and since it was training during 3 weeks.

Even though he saved energy and "trained", the route still covered 3400 k and 80 h of cycling. A rest after that is needed.

 

[CleanCiclismo]

With Vingegaard in top form, logic would be respected, and Vingegaard would win.

I am convinced that Pogacar will be prepared in such a way that he will still be close to his top form. Without Vingegaard (or not in top form) he may still win the Tour. Because Roglic (almost 35), Evenepoel (not at his best in a three weeks Tour) and Bernal (with his level of 2019, but not further evolved) are one level lower.

You think Bernal will captain Ineos and not Rodriguez?

 

[Wyndbrook]

My guess is Pog will win even if he is not at his top level.
Vinegaard will be far far below his best, even if he races. Remco will have an off day and lose time. Roglic will meet trouble somewhere along the way. And Pog will be easily better than all the other potential podium chasers.

 

[Sciatic]

One positive way of looking at the double is that he doesn’t need to race in the Dauphine or Suisse like his competitors and thus doesn’t have to risk crashing or getting sick right before the Tour starts

 

[Red Rick]

I felt he was a bit fading last year in the Ardennes classics. The Pogacar at the level of De Ronde would have done an even better job at Amstel. But this year he is stronger, AND a different trainer which might make all the difference.

Basically everyone at UAE is flying this year.

 

[Blanco]

You think Bernal will captain Ineos and not Rodriguez?

Not from the start, but the road will sort that out.

 

[perico]

I felt he was a bit fading last year in the Ardennes classics. The Pogacar at the level of De Ronde would have done an even better job at Amstel. But this year he is stronger, AND a different trainer which might make all the difference.

That crash last year left him burned out by week 3.

 

[tobydawq]

Do big 4 have a private WhatsApp group? Pogi at the Giro be like i miss you guys.

I think so. They probably play board games once every third week or so.

 

[Cookster15]

I’ll be stunned if Vingegaard starts let alone is competitive. I’m calling it the big three.

With Vingo out I’m tipping Pog to prevail but no doubt both Remco and Roglic will cause him some anxiety.

As for Pog’s recovery after the Giro, I think there are signs he wasn’t at his peak level in the Giro except the TT and maybe stage 20. Competition wasn’t great. Then as others have pointed out he didn’t do a stint of altitude training before the Giro. He will before the TdF. Plus, his UAE team will likely be stronger than it has ever been.

UAE have clearly planned all guns blazing to avenge the last two years - with at least a Giro title. But with Vingo likely out I think their eyes lit up at the prospect of pulling off the double.

 

[OlavEH]

I wonder about Roglic and his current peak level. If he managed to be as good as in the Vuelta 21, I could see him pose a threat to a Pog with a Giro in his legs. But is he on that level now? I can't really see that.

 

[Netserk]

I think so. They probably play board games once every third week or so.

Pogi is only game for Monopoly.

 

[Red Rick]

Think it's more likely this is gonna be Pogacar winning by 5 minutes and with 5 stages to go along with it than a close fought battle with more than 2 contenders really in the mix.

 

[Valv.Piti]

I felt he was a bit fading last year in the Ardennes classics. The Pogacar at the level of De Ronde would have done an even better job at Amstel. But this year he is stronger, AND a different trainer which might make all the difference.

I have heard this as as argument from Logic as well. Pogi had a flat, instantly closed the gap at a very hard and crucial point in the race and massacred them again once he joined the group. I saw an absolutely flying Pogacar in that race tbf.

In Fleche he was just whatever. Not a great race for him, did what was needed.

Pogi in that shape will always have the upper hand against Remco in Liege due to his sprint.

 

[Berniece]

I have heard this as as argument from Logic as well. Pogi had a flat, instantly closed the gap at a very hard and crucial point in the race and massacred them again once he joined the group. I saw an absolutely flying Pogacar in that race tbf.

In Fleche he was just whatever. Not a great race for him, did what was needed.

Pogi in that shape will always have the upper hand against Remco in Liege due to his sprint.

Wasn’t really able to massacre Healy. Without the help from the directors Healy would’ve closed the gap and they would’ve finished together. He still would’ve won, but this wasn’t the same Pogacar as he was at De Ronde.

Which is normal, you can’t expect him to be at his best from Strade to Liège.

 

[Netserk]

Wasn’t really able to massacre Healy. Without the help from the directors Healy would’ve closed the gap and they would’ve finished together. He still would’ve won, but this wasn’t the same Pogacar as he was at De Ronde.

Which is normal, you can’t expect him to be at his best from Strade to Liège.

Healy only gained 12" from when he attacked Pidcock, then on Bemelerberg Pogi extended his lead by 18".

And he didn't ride Strade last year. But this year he did seem to be ~at his best from Strade to Liège (or just good enough to dominate).

 

[Valv.Piti]

You are comparing Pog to straight up beating MVDP in his favorite race at 100%. Of course he's gonna look worse, everything he's gonna do from that point on is gonna look worse. But he was still riding damn impressively at Amstel. Having that puncture was massive deal at that point of the race and it still looked relatively easy for him to drop everyone just after.

 

[Berniece]

And he didn't ride Strade last year. But this year he did seem to be ~at his best from Strade to Liège (or just good enough to dominate).

Last year he rode 19 days before Liège, this year 9. That’s why it was easier this year, because he wasn’t as tired.

Which is why I think he might fade in TDF because a Giro in your legs will still take its toll.

 

[Blanco]

Think it's more likely this is gonna be Pogacar winning by 5 minutes and with 5 stages to go along with it than a close fought battle with more than 2 contenders really in the mix.

Not gonna happen. He will win stage or two in the first half, and he will not win overall. In fact, he will have hard time to even get on the podium.