he didn't have a need to at the Vuelta when he won. His longest attack on Pico Jano was about 9-10km, however
NO clue what he would have done at the giro last year
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he didn't have a need to at the Vuelta when he won. His longest attack on Pico Jano was about 9-10km, however
NO clue what he would have done at the giro last year
What would've been if but and so on, can be asked about every rider.
We can only relate to what they have done.
He let him go, because he thought he could catch him later.
Poggi had a bad 2022 tactical wise.
4th in a 2 man sprint
Should've let Rogla go at TdF when Rogla and Jonas played with him.
And worlds.
The Giro just finished and Eurosport Germany immediately started talking about the battle between the four at the Tour. This really feels like 2015 again. It probably won't live up to the hype, but man I'm really looking forward to July.
Man, 2015 was such a bummer. Could still have had a nailbiter finish, but stupid Movistar tactics got in the way...
12 GT winners already on the startlist.
That is as far as I can see every active GT winner apart from Nairoman
That is as far as I can see every active GT winner apart from Nairoman
There are uncertainties though, which make Roglic's and Evenepoel's chances higher.
Vingegaard - the biggest uncertainty. I still think it's likely they will aim for the Vuelta but until any announcement speculations will continue. What kind of form can he bring? If he's somehow (I don't know how) close to his best then obviously he'll have a realistic chance of victory.
Pogacar - well, another uncertainty. If he aimed solely at the Tour, he would be a huge favourite, given Vingo's crash. In this case, however, there's a chance he will fade (not necessarily a major collapse but having some weaker days). UAE seem confident in their plan so maybe he still has form reserves and Giro didn't tire him out much. I'm very curious of his performance: IMO both scenarios have similar probabilities to happen.
Roglic - should be perfectly prepared for the Tour. Maybe his best Tour chance from now to the end of career. To win the Tour, he will need both Vingo and Pog to be subpar - but this year it's actually most likely since...2019.
Evenepoel - his crash resulted in broken bones so his preparation has been far from perfect. To me it seems that he has enough time to be reasonably close to his best in July though. Podium is the goal but can't rule out victory if Vingo and Pog don't deliver (as they did in the previous few years).
It's really so sad that 2015 was the best battle for the TdF win we got out of that 2013-2016 era when Froome, Contador, Quintana and Nibali were all at really high levels. I'd argue 3 of the last 4 Tour battles between the new big 4 have already been better than the best of that era and one of the four has yet to start a Tour de France.
So far, only Jonas has made Tadej collaps. But it wasn't a major one since he still ended at second spot.
Poggi should anyway be better than R&R.
If Jonas is somehow close to his best then he is most likely to tire out Pogacar. However, I wouldn't rule out Rogla doing a smart race, reducing his losses and dropping a well-timed watt bomb during some stage in the 3rd week (like Lussari and Angliru), which coupled with Pogacar worse day, can change the race outcome. I definitely see his as the most dangerous rival to Pog if Vingo is not there.
It's not really about 'who' has made Pog collapse in the TdF before, it's about Pog riding a second GT (the Tour, no less) in a season for the first time.
On paper he's of course the big favorite. But, there's enough uncertainties to make this one interesting. As a Rogla fan I'll unequivocally say Rog needs his Vuelta 2023 form as the bare minimum in order to have any shot at glory. Then, it's about finally riding a GT without crashes/incidents/horrible stuff happening to him.
But, if he meets those conditions, I'm going to say he'll be in the fight & push Pog much closer than people might imagine. That final ITT looks very, very interesting as well (aka a watts bomb just waiting to happen, like the Olympics or the opening ITT of Itzulia).
He's down for it currently so I included him. Big red asterisk obviously but will probably depend on how he does on Wednesday/Dauphine, they have to try and justify that 25 million somehow I suppose and he seems to have made up with Adams after a romantic trip to the Golan Heights during an actual war.
Pretty much this.
Given uncertainties regarding Vingo and Pog the #5 hype should be starting soon!
That was really a Froome era, although I like him the least (in fact I don't like him at all).
Nibali couldn't beat any of them, and get his GT wins in their absence.
Contador could do it only at Vuelta, same as Quintana, with the difference that maybe Quintana could do it in 2015 but lacked cojones.
Yes that's a good point actually mods please change title to 'The Big 5' (to denote El Perro's 5th tour win #strivefor5)
Or just 'Tour 2024 pre-discussion' would be fine @susan_westemeyer @Daniel_Benson @Armchair cyclist
Even if guys like Remco aren’t close in the end, they can still launch it on a couple stages and contribute to overall fatigue if Pogacar always tries to follow. It depends how long the top few rivals stay close on GC.
If for example Rogla attacks, the other three has to respond. They all be equally tired.
They will follow him in the last 300 meters.
If that stage ended on Cote de San luca, i would bet on Roglic.
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The problem of Pogacar is not the riding of the Giro itself. Winning his sixt stage Pogacar still seemed very strong and fresh. But after the Giro, Pogacar can only rest for at most three days. The time remaining until the Tour is too short to reduce and then rebuild top form. So, after the short rest (and traveling home and/or to the training location) he has to keep his form high till the start of the Tour de France. That will cause the "fatigue" that will lead to weakening during the second half of the Tour. I don't know whether this will mean that he will no longer be able to follow Vingegaard (at 98%) and Roglic and Evenepoel during the second half of the Tour. Or that he will have built up enough of a lead during the first week (hill stages and Galibier) to compensate for the weakening during the last days.
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