The Giro just finished and Eurosport Germany immediately started talking about the battle between the four at the Tour. This really feels like 2015 again. It probably won't live up to the hype, but man I'm really looking forward to July.
There are uncertainties though, which make Roglic's and Evenepoel's chances higher.
Vingegaard - the biggest uncertainty. I still think it's likely they will aim for the Vuelta but until any announcement speculations will continue. What kind of form can he bring? If he's somehow (I don't know how) close to his best then obviously he'll have a realistic chance of victory.
Pogacar - well, another uncertainty. If he aimed solely at the Tour, he would be a huge favourite, given Vingo's crash. In this case, however, there's a chance he will fade (not necessarily a major collapse but having some weaker days). UAE seem confident in their plan so maybe he still has form reserves and Giro didn't tire him out much. I'm very curious of his performance: IMO both scenarios have similar probabilities to happen.
Roglic - should be perfectly prepared for the Tour. Maybe his best Tour chance from now to the end of career. To win the Tour, he will need both Vingo and Pog to be subpar - but this year it's actually most likely since...2019.
Evenepoel - his crash resulted in broken bones so his preparation has been far from perfect. To me it seems that he has enough time to be reasonably close to his best in July though. Podium is the goal but can't rule out victory if Vingo and Pog don't deliver (as they did in the previous few years).