a constant 5 km/h tailwind would make a noticeable difference
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Against non-competitors who are not in peak form. Sure. I guess the main question is how far from his peak Quintana himself is. How much margin he has to improve come summer.1.30 would be very roughly something like 0.35 W/kg less which any way you slice it is a big margin on a 140km 1-big climb stage on day 3 in a race.
I reviewed the calculations and I was using the distance shown on the TV which was that of the rider in the lead. If I put the actual distance around 9.6 km and no wind I get 6.75 watts/kg.I assume 374 is for Kuss. I made the calculation with no wind and got 390 watts for Quintana using the energy equation, not the VAM. That is around 6.6 watts per kilogram for him which might be Ok for that length.
I'm not quite convinced, to be honest. I don't mean to rain on his parade, but let's look at the context. He took 1m28 on... Lutsenko, Carthy & Vlasov. In Februari.
This is not exactly vs Bernal, Roglic or Froome in July.
I think this is a much bigger reason why insanely steep climbs produce smaller gaps, and it's cause nobody is dumb enough to completely blow themselves up. For all the talk about power meters, sometiems it seems the entire peloton seems too stupid to use them when there's 20 guys riding an unsustainable pace at the same time.The one climb theory is also true. Verbier comes to mind.
For the time being we can enjoy and see a rejuvenated Quintana and hope that he can at least keep this form throughout the year.
I think this is a much bigger reason why insanely steep climbs produce smaller gaps, and it's cause nobody is dumb enough to completely blow themselves up. For all the talk about power meters, sometiems it seems the entire peloton seems too stupid to use them when there's 20 guys riding an unsustainable pace at the same time.
What benefit would be in it for him?Keisse is always talking ***. No wonder he tries to make Nairo's effort look even more ridiculous.
Oomen (recovering from a serious injury), Dunbar, Barguil... are close to Bernal?Well, some hailed the Provence GC field earlier quite a lot. He "only" took 1:28 on those three but he took over 2 minutes on everyone else including Pinot, Gaudu, Kelderman, Oomen, Herrada, Dunbar, Kuss, Barguil. That's still not a Bernal, Pogacar, Roglic level of opposition but it's close to that. We don't know that Quintana would have beaten everyone yesterday but it's very likely as both the margin of his victory and the climbing times, power output, VAM numbers suggests that this was a brilliant performance. Whether he will be able to replicate this form (or even improve from here) comes July we don't know yet but the signs are good. And we know what Quintana can do to even the best of the peloton when in top form...
Great work by Garrison! He did all the work. (Well, and Brändle.)