Urine Trouble

[frenchfry]

Exactly, That is the point.
A lot of people are already aware of Armstrong's shady background.
The people with strong opinions either way wont be affected by the outcome of a court case.
The rest have been overlooking his past for years, and will continue to do so, if his team handle it effectively.

I tend to disagree, closure will be very important to many.

 

[Anonymous]

I tend to disagree, closure will be very important to many.

closure is important.

it may not change that many minds at this point, but it's definitely important.

 

[hrotha]

Does that mean that the UCI is complicit in fraud if they are sitting on positive samples?

No. Those samples are useless for pro cycling purposes, because they are too old. There's nothing the UCI can do about them at this point. Now, the Giro 2008 samples and the back-testing for CERA, on the other hand...

 

[Berzin]

Whether LA doped or not isn't supposed to be the focus of the investigation.

I don't know why people keep saying this, as if Armstrong's doping is besides the point or not a vital focus of the investigation. IT IS vital, the most vital component of the whole investigation. Without proving this the Feds cannot go forward.

Armstrong's doping IS important because it corroborates the steroid trafficking and use.

If he wasn't a user himself, how strong would the case be? It would be useless.

The Feds HAVE to prove drug use by Armstrong for everything else to fall into place.

 

[Publicus]

Also important to establish, independently, that the samples contain synthetic EPO. You want that DEFINITIVE answer when you put the question to Mr. Armstrong under oath. I remember Lance and his team wanted a meeting with the FDA team, it is coming but I don't think they are going to like how it plays out.

 

[Benotti69]

I dont see Armstrong showing any remorse whatsoever no matter how it goes.

 

[python]

Some more comments on the news that no one seemed to mention...

Let’s recall bordry’s proposal verbatim: "We can either send them (the samples) or do the testing ourselves."

sure, if novi asked the french, he’d have the result by now. But he wisely chose a transfer to the us

why ?

first, i’m merely speculating here, this automatically kills all the nonsense about french conspiracy if the american wada accredited lab is unleashed. no amount of obfuscation and whining will derail the process because novi, i am sure, has been advised to run any test concurrently with texas dna test. Bordry implied that texas can ask for a dna test if he doubts the chain of custody. the offer was refused thus for ever forgoing the best chance texas ever had to clean his image once and forever.

second, it instantly simplifies all the rules for evidence admissibility imposed by the us federal law - us lab results presented to the us court. simple.

third, it will destroys many of the lies the paid uci henchman vrijman managed to spread into the world-wide media. too many to list.why novi cares about vrijman ? because it was the official texas rebuttal for years.

fourth, assuming an epo test, the french 99 samples may not be the only one novi wants to test in us. he may have already put aside some armstrong samples uncovered by the usada. then, the samples will be exposed to the latest strictest epo procedure incorporating every advance since the epo test was introduced over a decade ago. This would immensely increase the results credibility.

the fact that the samples remained frozen for years is also a good thing because unlike in 2005, 6 years later there is much better understanding of the epo stability in the frozen samples. ask catlin and many other lab directors.

 

[Barrus]

Also important to establish, independently, that the samples contain synthetic EPO. You want that DEFINITIVE answer when you put the question to Mr. Armstrong under oath. I remember Lance and his team wanted a meeting with the FDA team, it is coming but I don't think they are going to like how it plays out.

To be quite honest I hope they give him a chance to plead out and that he takes it, if only to ensure that it can be seen how far any possible corruption and fraud goes. But part of me doubts whether he will take such a possibility, there is a chance he will believe he can fight it and keep his public image intact, which is a possibility, or that he is too proud and stubborn to publicly admit any wrongdoing.

 

[andy1234]

I dont see Armstrong showing any remorse whatsoever no matter how it goes.

Agreed, but he may fake some remorse if someone convinces him that 9 out of 10 households would have a 57% increase in good feeling for him if he does

 

[Benotti69]

Agreed, but he may fake some remorse if someone convinces him that 9 out of 10 households would have a 57% increase in good feeling for him if he does

To date he has not been very good at faking when things go against him.

 

[sniper]

Some more comments on the news that no one seemed to mention...

Let’s recall bordry’s proposal verbatim: "We can either send them (the samples) or do the testing ourselves."

sure, if novi asked the french, he’d have the result by now. But he wisely chose a transfer to the us

why ?

first, i’m merely speculating here, this automatically kills all the nonsense about french conspiracy if the american wada accredited lab is unleashed. no amount of obfuscation and whining will derail the process because novi, i am sure, has been advised to run any test concurrently with texas dna test. Bordry implied that texas can ask for a dna test if he doubts the chain of custody. the offer was refused thus for ever forgoing the best chance texas ever had to clean his image once and forever.

second, it instantly simplifies all the rules for evidence admissibility imposed by the us federal law - us lab results presented to the us court. simple.

third, it will destroys many of the lies the paid uci henchman vrijman managed to spread into the world-wide media. too many to list.why novi cares about vrijman ? because it was the official texas rebuttal for years.

fourth, assuming an epo test, the french 99 samples may not be the only one novi wants to test in us. he may have already put aside some armstrong samples uncovered by the usada. then, the samples will be exposed to the latest strictest epo procedure incorporating every advance since the epo test was introduced over a decade ago. This would immensely increase the results credibility.

the fact that the samples remained frozen for years is also a good thing because unlike in 2005, 6 years later there is much better understanding of the epo stability in the frozen samples. ask catlin and many other lab directors.

quality post, plausible speculations. Hadn't thought of it from these angles.

btw. you're a gesink fan?

 

[Cobblestoned]

12 pages of hope - hope posting again - hope for "Urine Trouble" by usual suspects, like hope for Lance getting busted in France, lol
A sign of hope, some speculation sold as fact again, wonderradio and thehog predicting some hopes again, and you have 12 pages in a minute.

This should be an easy one for Lance again, if they will ever take these samples home.
Thank you, Dirk.



1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

Outstanding, still outstanding in 20 years, and 30 years and 40 years - till the sun blows up.
But at least some hope there for some weeks.

 

[Publicus]

To be quite honest I hope they give him a chance to plead out and that he takes it, if only to ensure that it can be seen how far any possible corruption and fraud goes. But part of me doubts whether he will take such a possibility, there is a chance he will believe he can fight it and keep his public image intact, which is a possibility, or that he is too proud and stubborn to publicly admit any wrongdoing.

He'll have the chance to plead out. I think Novitzky gets him in front of the grand jury first though to establish that he has the goods and leverage that to get to the bigger fishes out there--the suppliers.

 

[thehog]

He'll have the chance to plead out. I think Novitzky gets him in front of the grand jury first though to establish that he has the goods and leverage that to get to the bigger fishes out there--the suppliers.

Lance won't be indicted for some months. The other players will be brought in first. GH, LL, TH have given themselves a leave pass but the many more are about to be served papers. Lance will be last.

 

[Anonymous]

a refresher:

French newspaper L'Equipe alleged in 2005 that Armstrong's 1999 samples contained blood booster erythropoietin (EPO). It reported that six of the samples revealed EPO, from anti-doping tests following the prologue and stages 1, 9, 10, 12 and 14.

anyone know how many samples were actually taken that Tour?

 

[Barrus]

He'll have the chance to plead out. I think Novitzky gets him in front of the grand jury first though to establish that he has the goods and leverage that to get to the bigger fishes out there--the suppliers.

I do agree he'll probably get the chance, however part of me doubts he'll take it

 

[sartain]

sorry, Joe, but i don't think you have a good grasp of John Q Public.

Colm's excellent post in response to the above comments explains why, but let me personalise this a bit.

my mother is very representative if not of your average Jane, but of a demographic LA cares about most of all -- big money donor to medical research charities.

(i should point out that any interest she has in the sport is because of my love of it, nothing more. she watches the TDF highlights but, again, it is more because of me than anything else... she has no vested interest, nor cares about the implications of doping... what matters to her is that HE LIED. and he used that lie to get money out of millions.)

she is beyond disgusted with LA. it really doesn't even matter what the outcome of the case is at this point, he has already fallen so low in her esteem. i'm sure she'll smile and be civil (she is such a good actress that way) if she has to be near him for some event, but neither she nor her friends would ever consider donating another cent.

the only thing that could possibly change her mind would be a total mea culpa from LA, a complete confession.

WQ,

I have to agree with Joe here because Cancer IS the ultimately shield. Your mother and her friends are outliers . . . 20,000 adoring yellow wrist wearing LA fans lined up in Austin last weekend to partake in his scam marathon event.

 

[thehog]

I do agree he'll probably get the chance, however part of me doubts he'll take it

Before being indicted the charges are explained with both sides legal counsel present. This is an opportunity to clarify the charges and to makes any changes to the what is being proposed. Its also an opportunity to lay some cards on the table and squeeze out of some of the charges. For example may agree to plead on one of two of them to remove other charges. (The plead comes later but you agree to do so)

 

[Anonymous]

I have to agree with Joe here because Cancer IS the ultimately shield. Your mother and her friends are outliers . . . 20,000 adoring yellow wrist wearing LA fans lined up in Austin last weekend to partake in his scam marathon event.

that's Austin.

and, yeah, people are going to line up to do something they signed up to do and got contributions to do several months ago... i, myself, have sponsored people -- how can you say no?

last year i even bought a bag of bands for a family member who was diagnosed overseas with cancer. it made his wife feel good.

just recently, though, i had another member diagnosed and asked if they wanted bands -- the answer was no.

the times they are a changing.

 

[Willy_Voet]

I doubt any samples that old will be admissable in a US court. And if it was, you know that the Lance people will find their own scientists to cast doubt on the certainty of their conclusions. It seems like a long shot. This could signal the investigation is running out of steam. It's a point of view.

You mean like DNA testing on old evidence in rape or murder cases? Never. Happens. At. All. Yup.

As for age of samples...things degrade. That's all Lance has going for him, the Hope that whatever he might have taken has degraded by now.

Should EPO or synthetic testosterone appear...well, he's stuck with that. Decomposing urine doesn't produce EPO as a by product.

 

[mewmewmew13]

Lance's position as the visible leader in the "war on cancer" is why he has transcended his sport, that much is easy to see. It is his stature and visibility that has helped deliver him to the US, and to a lesser extent the world, households. It is his "doing good" endeavors that perch him at the apex of a kind of wholesomeness blended with work ethic and determination that when matched with all his athletic feats, morphed him from a champion cyclist to a celebrity that has eclipsed almost any other US athlete.

It is all of this, and the underlying trust and integrity that his faithful have attributed to him, that will be his undoing. His willingness to have such a disparity between the "truth" and the "brand", going to extreme means to coordinate and manage what was essentially the best doping program in sports all the while campaigning on a platform of "never doped" that will leave his truest followers conflicted and betrayed.

I think the differences with Vick, and I realize it was just a handy example, are too great to make any meaningful comparison. Vick acted a thug, gave women STD's and despite being blessed with terrific athletic skills was never a real champion. He was not a champion for a cause and basically, as far as I can research, did the minimum to keep his job secure(which he now admits).

Lance is at risk across the demography, middle class "avg Joes", soccer Moms, upper class professional men, young kids who latch on to the image and the myth, and also the real hardcore followers: The people afflicted with cancer and their loved ones. Finding out it was a massive lie, that the guy doped to win and boldly proclaimed he was clean will cut deeply. These folks will react badly to his betrayal. It will hurt a lot. I think they will care a lot. Violation of trust like that is pretty serious emotional wreckage.

I don't see some Vick-like bounce back because his lie was not tied to his work or athletic job, and it was not tied to pandering false hope on the back of a very massive fraud. Vick lied about his "hobby", and that is not to downplay killing dogs, which I find morally reprehensible and disgusting. It is just very different than Lance and his false world.

I see Lance in a no-win situation. He is at risk of having some serious crimes leveled at him, ones that will require the exposure of the fullness of his scam to prove. It is narrow-minded to think these authorities won't get cooperation from the teammates, or from employees, or his ex-wife. It is a simpleton's view to think they won't roast him and his henchmen under the pressure of a very serious trial. They will and it will be very ugly and difficult for Americans to digest. He was their hero and he preyed on their emotions with devastating effectiveness thereby gaining their trust all while shielding himself with a cancer charity, making him "untouchable". You question him, you question the whole of them. How can so many people be wrong about their hero? He's Lance!

When it all breaks, there will be a massive lash back. I don't think his sponsors will be long by his side. Maybe Trek and Oakley, since they are the closest to him and cannot claim any level of ignorance as to how he came to win the TdF 7x. The reaction from fans will make him a very publicly ridiculed person. It will be abandonment, if it is not already happening. He will be toxic. Having Livestrong on a resume will carry a dark cloud and provoke endless questions.. "Did you know what Lance had been doing all those years? Ever see him take drugs?"

For as high as he had risen, his fall will be as stark in contrast. Too much trust being betrayed. Too much emotional toll for the true believers. Too many lies for too many years. The math will be short form and obvious: He cheated. It won't be some complex financial scheme (Mozila) that most folks can't grasp, or some stock exchange crime, like Madoff or Milken. He will be a clear and obvious bad guy, with not one ounce of "hero" to show once it is all done. There is no redemption story here.

Really, it is a tragic ending for a guy who had it all. Had dream-like athletic accomplishments. Lived in a dream-like world and life, business, charity, wife(s) and kids, fans, real followers who'd adored him and would do anything for their one inspiration. It is these people who needed it to be real to get them through cancer or inspire them to fight when it was bleak. But it was a lie. And that lie will hurt all these people, more deeply than any lie I can recall in recent history, due to the personal-ness that so many feel in connection with him and his story and this being intertwined with the hope, faith and trust placed in him.

Good post. One can only hope that this is the way rational and intelligent beings would react, and this is the best-case scenario. I am happy to hear of your thoughts regarding Vick's treatment of his dogs btw, one doesn't always hear this when his case is ruminated, and that is what sickened me most about him.
Lance has, indeed, built his whole 'life' on his 'done it all clean' brand, and somehow I still feel that many will idiotically overlook that aspect and still think, "I know he doped but he still helped cancer patients...".

ugh, hope you are %100 correct on your prediction.
cheers

 

[cprior]

But will we, the general public, be able to learn about the findings from the samples? I am wondering what they will "all" find in there, and I believe it will be much more than

1. CIR
2. EPO
3. CERA
4. Plasticizer
...

I assume, I might be wrong, that a post-cancer athlete will have quite an impressive list of drugs to use on a daily basis. In fact I always thought that LA had an competitive advantage post-cancer because of his list, probably seadled away at UCI and WADA.

With this being confidential patient-information I fear all findings from these samples will be off-limit for us, at least the LA camp will spin it like that. And they might have a powerful tool with the "patient-privacy"...

 

[thehog]

But will we, the general public, be able to learn about the findings from the samples? I am wondering what they will "all" find in there, and I believe it will be much more than

1. CIR
2. EPO
3. CERA
4. Plasticizer
...

I assume, I might be wrong, that a post-cancer athlete will have quite an impressive list of drugs to use on a daily basis. In fact I always thought that LA had an competitive advantage post-cancer because of his list, probably seadled away at UCI and WADA.

With this being confidential patient-information I fear all findings from these samples will be off-limit for us, at least the LA camp will spin it like that. And they might have a powerful tool with the "patient-privacy"...

Cancer is a modern society disease. It’s a disease of our environment. Injecting toxic chemicals into your body is really not a way to avoid getting cancer. That’s going to be a hard pill to swallow of the Livestrong fanbase. Its platform is healthy living and eradicating the disease through lifestyle choices.

 

[roadfreak44]

Cancer is a modern society disease. It’s a disease of our environment. Injecting toxic chemicals into your body is really not a way to avoid getting cancer. That’s going to be a hard pill to swallow of the Livestrong fanbase. Its platform is healthy living and eradicating the disease through lifestyle choices.

right you are!!!
i am curious though what will happen to landis and his allegations if nothing shows up in armstrongs urine which is also a possibility,,

 

[spessx]

+5 for Thread Title of the Week!

If I can throw in my $.02 (it's actually worth much less, btw) - I think Lance will have a good defense against a dirty '99 sample:

1. Who has had access to the samples in the 12 years since they were taken? Can they prove the samples weren't tampered with?

2. How were they stored? Does the methodology ensure the integrity of the samples? Can it hold up in court?

3. How secure were the samples during the transfer from France to the US? Who had access to them. Proving that the samples are Lances isn't the problem. Proving that no one slipped them a Jeffrey may be more difficult.

-s