I hope we see Nibali at his best in the Giro, but it's got a brutal list of GC riders this year.
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Re: Re:
If not then Le Tour. Seriously, if he is fully recovered as he says, if he is able to hit last year's Tour peak (I'm convinced he could've challenged Thomas until the very end if not for that crash), I see no reason why he can't have a real chance to win regardless of the competition. For the first race of the season UAE Tour was good for him, in line with his well proven approach to major targets.
Ivan_Basso_77 said:
If not then Le Tour. Seriously, if he is fully recovered as he says, if he is able to hit last year's Tour peak (I'm convinced he could've challenged Thomas until the very end if not for that crash), I see no reason why he can't have a real chance to win regardless of the competition. For the first race of the season UAE Tour was good for him, in line with his well proven approach to major targets.
Singer01
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Why would Nibali be able to challenge where Froome, Roglic and Dumoulin couldn't? He hasn't shown GT winning form for a long time.Rollthedice said:
Because he looked the strongest on the AdH stage until he was taken out. Because he was in the best shape he's been in for years in last year's tour.
Singer01
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Re:
Looked the strongest 'during the stage' counts for nothing, looks the strongest at the end is where it matters. His best shape for years isn't the best shape in the race. He was 2.14 down when he crashed out. And there was a long tt left.topcat said:
You're entitled to your opinion. Surprisingly, you haven't swayed me away from my opinion. But keep trying, you're sure to get a fight from someone, somewhere.
Yeah, I agree with singer. I don't think Nibali would have been near the podium by the end of the race.
Re:
Well, he was near the podium after a stage during which he broke his back so your argument isn't really supported by facts either.tobydawq said:
The only thing that has any certainty in the case Nibali didn't crash out was that he would attack on the Tourmalet. And then that entire stage changes.
He was only 49s and 30s down on Froome and Dumoulin respectively, and both were really tired by the end. Especially Froome was ripe for the taking.
Winning would've been near impossible, but he would've turned the Pyrenees into a massacre thereby forcing Sky to ditch Froome.
He was only 49s and 30s down on Froome and Dumoulin respectively, and both were really tired by the end. Especially Froome was ripe for the taking.
Winning would've been near impossible, but he would've turned the Pyrenees into a massacre thereby forcing Sky to ditch Froome.
I think he would got the podium, Dumo and especially Froome looked devasted towards the end and Nibali's form looked excellent at that point.
Thomas had to crash out in some descent under pressure to lose it, though.
I don’t ascribe on the theory that he’s done with GTs, both in 2017 and 2018 he was up there, so with a favourable course is doable.
Obviously, nobody lasts forever, that goes without saying…
Thomas had to crash out in some descent under pressure to lose it, though.
I don’t ascribe on the theory that he’s done with GTs, both in 2017 and 2018 he was up there, so with a favourable course is doable.
Obviously, nobody lasts forever, that goes without saying…
Singer01
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Re:
for clarity, i hope i am wrong about Nibali, there are nowhere near enough warriors on bikes anymore.
Like a brexiteer clinging desperately to the idea that the world is the way they wan't it to be, not the way it is.topcat said:
for clarity, i hope i am wrong about Nibali, there are nowhere near enough warriors on bikes anymore.
Re: Re:
Of course it's not supported by facts, how could a prediction of an alternative timeline ever be that?
I get that many people seem to think that he is some God that is much better than he actually is, but the day before he had just lost out to Froome, Dumoulin and Thomas in a major way, and Roglic was nowhere near his week three shape yet.
The fact that he rode like he did after his crash was miraculous but he would have to be stronger than each of the other four (who time trials much better than him) and I see no reason to suggest he would have been that.
Sestriere said:
Of course it's not supported by facts, how could a prediction of an alternative timeline ever be that?
I get that many people seem to think that he is some God that is much better than he actually is, but the day before he had just lost out to Froome, Dumoulin and Thomas in a major way, and Roglic was nowhere near his week three shape yet.
The fact that he rode like he did after his crash was miraculous but he would have to be stronger than each of the other four (who time trials much better than him) and I see no reason to suggest he would have been that.
I'm the furthest thing from a brexiteer there is. We left the union almost a hundred years ago. Nibali for the double.
Re: Re:
About that TT: in the last week of a GT they're always more about remaining strength and recovery than pure TT ability. The course was very hilly too, winning speed was 45.5 km/h. Zakarin was 7th @ 1 minute that day (ahead of Roglic) and he really didn't have a famous Tour, nor is he a great TTer. I find it unlikely that Nibali would have been worse than Zakarin there.
It's all specuation anyway and we will never know (Captain Obvious, I know) but I still find it weird to state that Nibali would not have been near the podium no matter what.
He was poor on La Rosière, there's no way to deny that (both, tactically and physically). However, the way he looked like on the next day it seems to me that he was really hitting top form also coming into his own recovery-wise. Dumoulin and Froome were tired in the last week, although they didn't fade too drastically, maybe one additional opponent would've changed that? Who knows..tobydawq said:
About that TT: in the last week of a GT they're always more about remaining strength and recovery than pure TT ability. The course was very hilly too, winning speed was 45.5 km/h. Zakarin was 7th @ 1 minute that day (ahead of Roglic) and he really didn't have a famous Tour, nor is he a great TTer. I find it unlikely that Nibali would have been worse than Zakarin there.
It's all specuation anyway and we will never know (Captain Obvious, I know) but I still find it weird to state that Nibali would not have been near the podium no matter what.
Singer01
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Goalposts thoroughly moved. The discussion started off as at the top of this page someone said he could have challenged Thomas.Sestriere said:
Singer01
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I also don't think Nibali would have gotten on the podium in that particular tour, but that is mostly due to a lack of opportunities. The remaining gc relevant stages after Alpe d'Huez were Mende (which didn't suit him), the TT (which didn't suit him compared to his opponents) and three pyrenees stages (of which two didn't suit him and the one that did wasn't great for gaining time as the east side of the Aubisque isn't exactly attackers paradise) That however doesn't mean he didn't have the legs to drop Froome or maybe even Dumoulin given the right playing field.
The discussion originated from the question of what he could still do at gt's, and if I take this years giro as an example things look very different. Here are the gc relevant stages after stage 12 of the 2019 giro:
A 188 kilometer long stage with three hard climbs and a mtf over 2000 meters, an extremely hard 130 km long stage, a 237 km long medium mountain stage which is almost a copy of a monument which he won two times (and the only remaining time that route was used he got 2nd), a 226 km long monster stage, an easier and only 180 km long mountain stage, a 150 km long one climb stage, another 200 km long monster stage and a short TT.
That 130 km stage doesn't suit Nibali overly well but it isn't exactly a sprint either, the easy one climb stage doesn't suit him at all but nobody will be able to make a difference on that climb anyway, and the TT isn't great for him as well but then again it's also only 15 km long.
Do I think the legs he had in the tour last year are enough for him to get on the podium on this giro route? Absolutely. Of course it depends on his opponents as well and it's anything but given that he will return to his former level but if he does a route like this is reason enough for him to still focus on gt's. If however it gets announced that the 2020 giro and tour neither have a mountain stage that is longer than 150 k, I wouln't complain about him focussing on classics. I just don't want him to give up either kind of racing as long as he can be competitive in both.
The discussion originated from the question of what he could still do at gt's, and if I take this years giro as an example things look very different. Here are the gc relevant stages after stage 12 of the 2019 giro:
A 188 kilometer long stage with three hard climbs and a mtf over 2000 meters, an extremely hard 130 km long stage, a 237 km long medium mountain stage which is almost a copy of a monument which he won two times (and the only remaining time that route was used he got 2nd), a 226 km long monster stage, an easier and only 180 km long mountain stage, a 150 km long one climb stage, another 200 km long monster stage and a short TT.
That 130 km stage doesn't suit Nibali overly well but it isn't exactly a sprint either, the easy one climb stage doesn't suit him at all but nobody will be able to make a difference on that climb anyway, and the TT isn't great for him as well but then again it's also only 15 km long.
Do I think the legs he had in the tour last year are enough for him to get on the podium on this giro route? Absolutely. Of course it depends on his opponents as well and it's anything but given that he will return to his former level but if he does a route like this is reason enough for him to still focus on gt's. If however it gets announced that the 2020 giro and tour neither have a mountain stage that is longer than 150 k, I wouln't complain about him focussing on classics. I just don't want him to give up either kind of racing as long as he can be competitive in both.
Singer01
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I just think of it like this -
Which is he most likely to be successful in and which improves his palmares the most. The answer to both (for me) is classics.
Which is he most likely to be successful in and which improves his palmares the most. The answer to both (for me) is classics.
Tourmalet stage was all he needed for a podium. Either he'd be in that same break with Landa/Bardet/Zaka and they probably stay away with the extra manpower or if people already react to him there it would've been war with 90km to go and teammates up the road.Gigs_98 said:
If Nibali goes into that break the sky train catches them ten kilometers from the top of the Aubisque. If he attacks on the Aubisque he maybe gains a minute on Froome, maybe even more, but it's still questionable if that would have been enough for a podium.Red Rick said:
Still, he could've challenged Thomas, I have no doubt. Winning? Slim chances but the podium was there for the taking. If the accident would've happened after he presumably would have won on Alpe maybe there would be another perspective today about his potential chances for the podium. Let's not forget that the ski jumper turned cycling world beater for some, was barely following the wheel of broken back Vincenzo.
It doesn't matter now because one idiot destroyed his work and sacrifices and worse of all he couldn't fight for the rainbow jersey which at this point in his life means much more than another Tour.
It doesn't matter now because one idiot destroyed his work and sacrifices and worse of all he couldn't fight for the rainbow jersey which at this point in his life means much more than another Tour.
Question mark for me is the performance on La Rosiere, but didn't he crash on the cobbles like 3 days before?
I really think cobbles 2 days before the mountains helped those climbers who had an easier times on the cobbles, though I'm not sure how much. Roglic was riding the cobbles with a rock in his elbow and he was notably worse in the Alps.
I really think cobbles 2 days before the mountains helped those climbers who had an easier times on the cobbles, though I'm not sure how much. Roglic was riding the cobbles with a rock in his elbow and he was notably worse in the Alps.
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