Teams & Riders Vincenzo Nibali discussion thread

[Miburo]

Re: Re:

No one declines like THAT in 2 years.

Andy Schleck ? Uran ? Hesjedal ? De Gendt ? Cunego ? And plenty more.

Andy was cause of injury.

De Gendt is an enigma. Hesjedal had one amazing year and purito gave that giro away.

Cunego's 2004 year was never repeated. But he was still very good, winning a lot of big races and in 2011 he was pretty good in the tour although he was just sucking wheels. Vuelta '09 he was a beast too. But i guess later he suddenly got ***

But an established guy like nibali who is been competitive for almost 10 years to suddenly be this bad...Only Uran and cunego come close imo.

 

[May0maniac]

Right now he's smiling, signing autographs, joking and taking pictures with his fans, he seems to be in a good mood.

 

[SafeBet]

Slongo: "Nibali's numbers were very good until the Corvara stage, similar to the ones he had in the GTs he's won. Then from the MTT his numbers decreased with no explanation. The strange thing is that he doesn't feel tired or weak, he just can't produce the watts he's supposed to."

He also confirmed Nibali will do the Tour.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Until Corvara they also didn't do high mountains.

Maybe Nibali can still do the numbers but only on short efforts. The longer/harder it goes the worse he gets. So something is blocking his endurance/recovery then.
Seems to me they still did something wrong in prep.

 

[max_powers]

Re: Nibali discussion thread

Watching today's Giro stage, there was a discussion about Nibali changing crank length from 172.5 to 175mm *just before the Giro* !!

Maybe he is super flexible, but usually a change like this takes awhile to complete, and is done in preparation over a period of time.

Muscle Memory, etc. takes awhile. This could be quite a factor in his recent performance.

 

[Irondan]

Re: Re:

[...]
“We’ll evaluate it well with the tests. For now I hope it’s not that even some things make me fear if might be a valid theory. I’m in difficulty because I don’t understand what’s happening,” said Nibali, who also explained why he had been so reluctant to speak to reporters following the past two stages.

“After the finish line, you’re waiting for me and I don’t know what to tell you. I don’t like looking bad like this. For me these are humiliations. I’ll get to Turin. I can’t give up.”

Particularly interesting:

"My current condition is what it is, but I don’t understand because it seems to me that I feel well."

This seems like declining to me.

You don't decline overnight from the very best to complete ****.
Must be a series of reasons and it's time for a change of team and equip.
New team, new trainer, new doctors, fresh air and new motivations.

He isn't complete **** so that is an overstatement, he sits in 4th place so he could very well be declining as he's still competitive but can't quite keep up with the leaders in this race. I do agree with the rest of the post as he hasn't looked happy at Astana for a little while now so maybe a change of environment next season could give him a new lease on life

I think you hit the bullseye, Nibs is unhappy at Astana and a new team (especially one he creates for himself) will be all he needs to get himself back to the rider he's capable of being.

Historically he should be physically competitive for another 2 or 3 years, maybe even longer.

 

[Irondan]

Re: Nibali discussion thread

Watching today's Giro stage, there was a discussion about Nibali changing crank length from 172.5 to 175mm *just before the Giro* !!

Maybe he is super flexible, but usually a change like this takes awhile to complete, and is done in preparation over a period of time.

Muscle Memory, etc. takes awhile. This could be quite a factor in his recent performance.

I don't know why he would make that drastic a change of his bike setup at all?

I've never changed crank lengths on my bike but I know whenever I move my seat height even 1mm I feel completely off and can't ride the same as when I have my seat in it's optimal position. After riding for years that way I would assume that changing crank lengths is a huge change in setup to get used to, why do it at all on the eve of a big GT?

It don't make any sense to do that...

 

[lenric]

Maybe his coach told him that it would somehow help him improve is watt numbers or whatever. I remember that 2 years ago Alberto's coach trained him to reduce his cadence, which is also a big change.

Anyway, that's assuming that Nibali really reduced his crack length, but if he really did, I doubt he would have done that in a GT. It's simply too risky.

 

[SafeBet]

It was Slongo saying they changed his crank length so it has to be true. He also said this would've helped him keep a good pace on long climbs, while he would lose some explosiveness.
I don't think the change was made right before the Giro though. Probably before the season started.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

Until Corvara they also didn't do high mountains.

Maybe Nibali can still do the numbers but only on short efforts. The longer/harder it goes the worse he gets. So something is blocking his endurance/recovery then.
Seems to me they still did something wrong in prep.

Not entirely true since they had already done the Cividale stage and anyway from his words it seemed like the numbers were ok even in the Corvara stage. His performance on that stage was surely much better than what followed.

 

[StryderHells]

Re: Nibali discussion thread

Watching today's Giro stage, there was a discussion about Nibali changing crank length from 172.5 to 175mm *just before the Giro* !!

Maybe he is super flexible, but usually a change like this takes awhile to complete, and is done in preparation over a period of time.

Muscle Memory, etc. takes awhile. This could be quite a factor in his recent performance.

Changing his crank length might feel different but it has nothing to do with muscle memory, his brain still knows how to send the signals down to his legs to make them turn the cranks which is what muscle memory is. Maybe his body is feeling different from a slightly different position but I doubt it would completely explain his performance as we have seen him drop is bundle before.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

No one declines like THAT in 2 years.

Andy Schleck ? Uran ? Hesjedal ? De Gendt ? Cunego ? And plenty more.

That's a good point. There is always variation around the average. The average rider doesn't decline at this age , but there are riders below and above; evergreen Valverde, Horner, Cancellara etc who can seemingly go on forever, but also the riders you mention that declined unusually early.

As painful to admit as it might be, Nibali could be one of them.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re: Re:

Until Corvara they also didn't do high mountains.

Maybe Nibali can still do the numbers but only on short efforts. The longer/harder it goes the worse he gets. So something is blocking his endurance/recovery then.
Seems to me they still did something wrong in prep.

Not entirely true since they had already done the Cividale stage and anyway from his words it seemed like the numbers were ok even in the Corvara stage. His performance on that stage was surely much better than what followed.

Yeah but on corvara he rode a long effort alone.. and never really recovered the days after. So thats why i say something is blocking his recovery

 

[SafeBet]

Basso's drop in performance after 2010 was also very quick.

 

[jsem94]

Basso 2010 was also only a year older than Nibali, so maybe he has just gotten worse. Yikes.

 

[Rollthedice]

Contador was bad one full year and then came back in spectacular fashion, no reason yet to think Nibs is on decline. He started well this year and I dare to say that he would've won TA. He was decent with some fairly good stages at this Giro, the meltdown came after the big effort in the Corvara where I think he was at a good level in comparison with the first week. Yesterday he attacks, he's great in the first part of the stage just to find out later down the road that he's dead. You can't just drop so low after a good winter prep while outsprinting GVA in an uphill finish and winning such a tough stage as Green Mountain and the overall in Oman in February.

 

[filipepc]

Re: Nibali discussion thread

I understand that we expect much more from Nibali, but i think peole are making a big thing, much bigger than it is.

He´s in 50? 65? 75? Come on, he is 4 th. Maybe he loose more 1 or 2 positions, but... For now he is 4º. It´s not good it´s not what we expected but he is not so bad like that, he just isn´t so good like we would like!

He is a class rider, i don t see him winning this giro, but, he is the closest rider to the style of contador in GT´S. He can attack anywhere... Dont understimate him...

 

[Taxus4a]

Nibali is thinking what happens... I think that he is not so good with good weather. he could be at a better level, he didnt get his maximum, but I think he is vert close. In a Giro with worse weather he make the difference.

It was similar with Valverde the Tour he won but the oposite.

 

[Tonton]

Re: Nibali discussion thread

Last year at the TdF, he wasn't good. Yes, Il Squalo won the GDL afterwards. Oman? Barely beat Bardet...sorry, but as much as I was cheering for him ftw, Nibbles is done in my opinion. He can try to hang on, turn into a one-day race guy successfully, but his GC days are over. That's it guys. He'll never be a GC contender again. Don't fool yourselves. But he won't quit (the undergoing tests news today was a bit scary - excuses). I want to believe that Nibali is tough, that he's a fighter. Ali got beat up by Holmes but didn't quit. We shall soon find out what Vicenzo NIbali is made of. And if I were him (and I'm not), ciao, enjoy the money, the family. He's not in the Quitana, Froome league anymore, and I bet that Berto is looking at this and planning his own ending.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Basso's drop in performance after 2010 was also very quick.

Basso and Evans went backwards after their last or only GT win in Evans' case but they both had long careers at the top. Basso dropped very quickly but Evans was a top five rider for a few more years. Nibali is also meeting improved opposition so it's not all about him. Valverde has actually looked better in GTs over the past few years. I don't know how he does it. He keeps winning in different types of races. Wiggins just lost interest in GTs after his Giro debacle. I got the feeling with Wiggins that he was just ticking boxes and had no interest in riding GTs ongoing.

 

[fantomas]

Nibali never was the great GC champion some want(ed) him to be. He's only hyped like this because he's Italian.

When asked today if Nibali could still win the Giro, Rolf Sørensen didn't want to say "no," and that's precisely the dream world anyone thinking Nibali can do more, than he can, are living in. Morten Bennekou, DS for Orica, didn't hesitate. "No, Nibali won't win the Giro."

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Nibali never was the great GC champion some want(ed) him to be. He's only hyped like this because he's Italian.

When asked today if Nibali could still win the Giro, Rolf Sørensen didn't want to say "no," and that's precisely the dream world anyone thinking Nibali can do more, than he can, are living in. Morten Bennekou, DS for Orica, didn't hesitate. "No, Nibali won't win the Giro."

Anyone who wins three GTs and has multiple podiums is a very good rider. People like Merckx and Hinault are freaks so without him being freakish I have no problem with the word "champion".

 

[rafaelalencar]

What's the point of Nibali doing the Tour? It's better relax and do La Vuelta. Maybe he can do something there...

 

[SafeBet]

He's doing the Tour to prepare for Rio. Olympic RR is his other big goal of the season.

 

[huge]

Re:

He's doing the Tour to prepare for Rio. Olympic RR is his other big goal of the season.

Exactly. Slongo said the plan was to start the Tour not in shape, and finish it with a strong condition.
No GC ambitions. Helping Aru along the way and a nice stage win on the final week, if there is any chance.

I don't think his failure at the Giro will change much in his plans. Rio is still his main goal for the rest of the season.