After today's TT Nibali is far behind. If he feels good he should attack tomorrow before the rest day and try to somewhat reduce the gap. It won't be easy to close even if the Giro lasts until Milan but I'm rooting for the Shark anyway.
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He should follow Pozzo and Fuglsang who will both try something - the former almost certainly. Shouldn't go himself unless he feels nuclear and today was genuinely conservative imo.
Big question will be whether or not to try follow Kelderman if he goes. He's clearly got great legs now but may falter later and there'll need to be a decision made on whether or not to risk blowing for the sake of another 20-30s if Vincenzo's legs aren't quite there.
Hardest part is the first half. Obviously it coudl be way worse, but Nibali isn't the sort to hit a 40 minute climb super hard to start off.
Stage isn´t as difficult as the following mountain stages. No altitude. Climb is getting easier on the final kms.
It's frustrating because we don't know if he is in shape. Looked solid on Etna, then bad in Roccaraso, then he was good in the hills and now pretty weak in the TT. In-shape Nibali should be toying with this field.
Tbh the one thing that prevents me from going full panic mode is that he was so much better in 3rd week so consistently that at this point you just can't doubt he will improve.
One of the advantages of the weak supporting casts is that Quickstep and Sunweb won´t be able to control the breakaways in the mountains. Meaning that many teams could send riders up the road. Really hope that Trek at least gets 2 guys in the breakaway on every single stage in the 3rd week.
He's been in this kind of situation before. He gained more than 2min against Chaves, Kruijswijk and Roglič who are all stronger opposition than anybody in front of him right now. He looks weaker than last year though but I still think he is the man to beat.
Sunweb and Quickstep have 8 riders in total in the top 30 on GC.
Edit: 6 if leaders are excluded, but that is still plenty enough if they cooperate
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The issue is... Everyone is still looking at him as the man to beat. And especially Sunweb has 2 best doms of the race. Nibs has no team to get rid of them. And I do not see him good enough to get rid of all of them alone. Shitty situation, Kelderman has this without crashes.
it is still a legitimately tough climb where it makes sense to test opponents (unless he is really bad) than simply do nothing
Edit: particularly after a 45 minute ITT the day before
Plus it's still probably in the top3 of hardest mountains stages Almeida and McNulty have faced in their careers.
You cannot not test them.
Why should they cooperate?
Kelderman has Oomen and Hindley. Hamilton and Tusveld aren´t any better than the Trek guys. Quickstep has Masnada and Knox. Honore and Serry aren´t made for the high mountains.
Neither team is strong enough to control the breakaway on a difficult mountain stage. That´s a difficult task for a prime Sky train.
While I somewhat agree, Mosca, Conci, Bernard and Antonio (sacrilege alert!) is hardly a super mountain team that should be feared. Even Brambilla is a bit of a shadow of his former self.
Edit: or in other words, however unimpressive they may seem, they are probably the 2 strongest mountain teams in the race,
Best use of Antonio is have him wait for Enzo at the bottom of the Agnello descent. But he needs to go now. Take a car and drive all the way to France and just wait there for a week. That's probably the only way he can be ahead of his brother at that point of the stage
But they have to compete against more than just Treks mediocre team. Astana, NTT, Bora will probably all try something with their remaining guys. Not to mention that half of the peletion will try to get into the break. Sprint jersey, mountain jersey, Intermediate sprint and breakaway km competition, GC support, stage win. Plenty of reasons to try something.
Agree that Sunweb and Quickstep have the strongest teams but they don´t have the numbers or quality to control an entire mountain stage from start to finish.
If they're at like 5km to go on the Stelvio, and Kelderman has to sit on teammates instead of Nibali then it's in the bag
Reactions are in, from Trek website:
“The analysis of today’s time trial should be done on a personal level, and also in comparison with others,” said Nibali. “For my part, the most objective numbers on performance come from my Garmin [power meter], and honestly, what I saw was comforting. My power was remarkable, in line with the expectations I had set with (Trek-Segafredo trainer) Paolo Slongo at the start.
“Also, my time was certainly not bad,” continued Nibali. “If I compare it with the others it was okay, with the only exceptions of Kelderman and Almeida, who went really strong, the pink jersey above all. Anyway, the real balance of the race must be done after tomorrow’s mountain stage of Piancavallo”
“The analysis of today’s time trial should be done on a personal level, and also in comparison with others,” said Nibali. “For my part, the most objective numbers on performance come from my Garmin [power meter], and honestly, what I saw was comforting. My power was remarkable, in line with the expectations I had set with (Trek-Segafredo trainer) Paolo Slongo at the start.
“Also, my time was certainly not bad,” continued Nibali. “If I compare it with the others it was okay, with the only exceptions of Kelderman and Almeida, who went really strong, the pink jersey above all. Anyway, the real balance of the race must be done after tomorrow’s mountain stage of Piancavallo”
In the bag. All you doubters will be more relaxed after tomorrow's stage.
Let's hope Antonio and Brambilla really step up from now on, and it's about time, Bernard shows that he also resembles his father on the bike.
There's something about Nibali quotes that is enigmatic, puzzling and funny all at once. I don't know why it happens.
He must have been looking at Ganna's Garmin.
Anyway, I think we had too high expectations and he did worse than we're used to from a time which seems so long ago. On top, Almeida and Wilco were very good, not far from some of the unexpected and weird very high level performances in this unusual year.
Now the battle begins, 2 men down, a couple of minutes down but at last (it's more than strange that stage 15 is the first one where a good climber can make a difference) he has the terrain to take the initiative.
Yeah it wasn't disastrous, but he was bang average when we're used to see him always be at least solid/decent in a GT ITT. And all his previous ITTs at Trek were bad. Weird thing is him doing better on the flat than on the climbs in this ITT, big gears, and the really strange splits, etc.
But then before this Giro I thought he needed to be better than 2019 to win, adjusting for circumstances, etc. Now I think him being like 2019 is good enough.
30 seconds better in the ITT and I'd be popping Prosecco.
While with this result I'm ready to call his GC days over.
This thread is killing me.
While with this result I'm ready to call his GC days over.
This thread is killing me.
Realistically this is his last good chance.
So we must pop Prosecco, in victory or defeat.
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