Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2021: Stage 7 (Gandia - Balcón de Alicante, 152.0 km)

[johnymax]

So you are saying that Padun will do a Landa to Landa?

He'll do a Padun to everybody

 

[SHAD0W93]

Probably Yates. Like I said, Carapaz going will just trigger a Movistar chase, and would render isolating Roglic a pointless exercise.

But Movistar chasing or Ineos and/or Movistar setting a high pace will isolate Roglic if the team rides like in stage 3. Roglic isn’t working if it’s not on the last climb if he is solo.

 

[Leinster]

But Movistar chasing or Ineos and/or Movistar setting a high pace will isolate Roglic if the team rides like in stage 3. Roglic isn’t working if it’s not on the last climb if he is solo.

I'm saying if Roglic is isolated, and Carapaz attacks, Movistar will chase Carapaz down and Roglic won't have to do anything.

If Roglic is isolated before the final climb and the attacks start coming (from Bahrain, Ineos, Movi, whoever) then he will have to react to some of them. He already lost a Giro by not chasing a Movistar rider, he won't want to make that mistake again.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I'm saying if Roglic is isolated, and Carapaz attacks, Movistar will chase Carapaz down and Roglic won't have to do anything.

If Roglic is isolated before the final climb and the attacks start coming (from Bahrain, Ineos, Movi, whoever) then he will have to react to some of them. He already lost a Giro by not chasing a Movistar rider, he won't want to make that mistake again.

We said this every time about trying to with Froome isolated. The gaps are still close enough that other teams aren’t going to let a Movistar/Ineos/Landa get away. The way to break him when he is isolated is to repeatedly attack with your leaders on the last climb so Roglic has to respond.

 

[Leinster]

We said this every time about trying to with Froome isolated. The gaps are still close enough that other teams aren’t going to let a Movistar/Ineos/Landa get away. The way to break him when he is isolated is to repeatedly attack with your leaders on the last climb so Roglic has to respond.

How many times did Froome get isolated? Twice? 3 times?

 

[SHAD0W93]

How many times did Froome get isolated? Twice? 3 times?

No idea but if Ineos/Movistar send one of their leaders ahead and Roglic has nobody to chase, Movistar/Ineos is chasing. Only way they’re not is if they attack together.

 

[Sciatic]

Yes but it wasn't in the first week of a GT

Whether it’s a good race strategy or not, I’m hoping that for our entertainment value at least one team starts driving it hard from several climbs out so that we end up with multiple chasing groups. Medium-mountain stages like this can be great, and in this case there is no hard stage the next day. And I don’t think the finish climb is so daunting that fear of blowing up on a steep final climb should be a big factor. Though you never know in today’s peloton!

 

[movingtarget]

GC battle but it looks like a good stage for Roglic.

 

[Roku]

Jan Polanc will be leading GC after this stage.

 

[cen]

Astana causes a split on the 2a downhill, Roglic and Carthy happen to be in the group. Movistar and Ineos frantically try to close but it's not enough. Roglic gifts stage to Aranburu for doing the rounds.

Wait a second..

Gaudu is in the race but under disguise all this time! Carthy gets dropped and Roglic gifts the stage to Gaudu.

 

[Earns1985]

Interesting will be the first mountain and who tries to go in the break. There are still a lot of second tier GC riders close in the GC, so I think a lot of them will try to go in the break, especially because the leader team won´t have the manpower to chase a strong break. Also interesting will be Ineos, Bahrain and Movistar's approach here. Bahrain could send Padun, Mäder, Haig or Poels in the break. Movistar and Ineos will have the problem, that the other teams won´t let espcape their top riders (Lopez, Mas, Valverde and Bernal, Yates, Carapaz). To send teammates in the break as Relais stations doesn´t make that much sence today, because there is no big mountain in the middle of the stage, where a leader could bridge to his teammate.

 

[hayneplane]

Bahrain really ought to send one of their 16 leaders on the attack on the opening climb. Poels would be an obvious one to start collecting KOM points but the limitation is that other teams know he isn't consistent enough to need to worry about him still being there at the end of the 3 weeks. Mader would be worth a long range dig.

 

[southwards]

Guillaume Martin in red this night, and he won't relinquish it till the end.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Guillaume Martin in red this night, and he won't relinquish it till the end.

What red are you drinking?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Guillaume Martin in red this night, and he won't relinquish it till the end.

I can see him being in polka dots, but the red jersey might be too hard of an ask.

 

[BlueRoads]

If I was Movistar I'd decide on whether to support Mas or Lopez for GC, make the race a bit harder so that all Jumbos are dropped, send Valverde off early, then send the lesser GC rider on an attack when the field is small, and then, when Roglic has spent his enery chasing, go for a real time gain with my major GC rider.
But since they are them they will try to hold on with all three as long as possible and then attack randomly a bit close to the finish, so that in the end they are still up there with the team but don't have a chance for the win.

 

[Fantastico]

If I was Movistar I'd decide on whether to support Mas or Lopez for GC, make the race a bit harder so that all Jumbos are dropped, send Valverde off early, then send the lesser GC rider on an attack when the field is small, and then, when Roglic has spent his enery chasing, go for a real time gain with my major GC rider.

I understand the idea, but I think it's way too early in the race to make this decision. For the second and third week it makes more sense to me to keep Mas and Lopez as high as possible in GC right now.

 

[Lequack]

 

[Earns1985]

I understand the idea, but I think it's way too early in the race to make this decision. For the second and third week it makes more sense to me to keep Mas and Lopez as high as possible in GC right now.

It´s early in the race and the mountains are not difficult enough in the middle of the stage for this strategy.. perhaps on sunday..

 

[Samu Cuenca]

If I was Movistar I'd decide on whether to support Mas or Lopez for GC, make the race a bit harder so that all Jumbos are dropped, send Valverde off early, then send the lesser GC rider on an attack when the field is small, and then, when Roglic has spent his enery chasing, go for a real time gain with my major GC rider.

Roglic would just call their bluff and as soon as Valverde gets too big of a gap, Mas and/or Lopez would start chasing him
I don't think Roglic should be too worried about Valverde yet anyway, so giving the jersey away to him and Movistar would not necessarily be a bad idea.

Also these climbs are not really hard enough for Mas and Lopez to drop Roglic, and it should also be difficult to drop the whole Jumbo team early on.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Is that southwards drinking his bottle of red?

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Is that southwards drinking his bottle of red?

To me it looks like a bottle of B.S. But judging by what we have seen in the Vuelta so far, it's probably empty.

 

[ice&fire]

They're on the neutralised start. Already live on TV

 

[Lequack]

Live coverage in full? I guess it's time for a breakaway with 20 minutes advantage.

 

[perico]

If Verona is healthy this is a stage for him to get in the break. He’s been quiet since his crash at the TdF