Vuelta a España Vuelta a España 2023, stage 8: Dénia - Xorret de Catí, 165.0k

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Marie Blanque is only at 1000 metres, the effect of altitude is negligible there. Recovery also doesn't play that big a role yet in the first mountain stage of a GT. It is very much a valid comparison.

If you want the same altitude and same number of days into in a stage race, he also did 6.8 W/kg for 24 minutes on Lo Port in Catalunya this year. That is basically on par with the Marie Blanque effort, with the caveat that that was an easier stage.

Nobody is disputing that Vingegaard (and Pogacar) can put in better performances on just about any climb, but on a shorter effort that comes earlier in the race (like today's), Evenepoel can run them closer than anywhere else, and closer in this case is, in fact, pretty close. So that means that a) if Evenepoel is getting dropped here, it will likely be far worse come the Pyrenees and therefore a clear sign that he isn't going to win this thing, but also that b) Vingegaard needs to be very close to his Tour level to drop Evenepoel here assuming that Evenepoel is at 100%.

I wouldn't neglect even 1000 m of altitude as there's still considerably less oxygen there compared to near sea level. Other than that, fair enough. Evenepoel has a very high fresh w/kg (even on 30 minute climbs as Tour of Norway showed) and he is expected to be close to them especially earlier in the race and on unipuerto stages. Him being dropped on Javalambre was a bit surprising but maybe he wasn't at his best due to his crash.