Vuelta Prediction: How will GC battle Shake up?

[TMP402]

Chris Froome ‏@chrisfroome
Looking forward to taking on the @lavuelta
Tough but always exciting for the viewers #bringiton

Seems like a conformation to me...

Yup.

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

Got some money on Schleck, would be silly not to at 350/1. Can't believe he's still on them odds. Even after Utah Dombrowski is at 200/1, bookies really have no idea about cycling

hard to see Schleck winning it.

200/1 for a guy who took Utah convincingly is ridiculous. Both guys are outsiders but an each way bet is definitely worth it on them odds.

Totally agree. I'm not a betting man but that screams tempting.

How is a guy who's never done a GT before gonna win against Rodriguez, Valverde, Quintana, Froome, TJVG, Aru, Landa, Nibali and Pozzovivo? Although he did beat Bookwalter and Woods convincingly in Utah

I've seen enough Vuelta's to know that only Valverde, Pozzovivo and TJVG out of the names you mentioned might challenge over three weeks in Spain. It seems that every year everyone seems to forget about fatigue and are surprised when someone who USUALLY hasn't already completed a GT wins or finishes on the podium.. And this years Tour and Giro were harder than usual.. The favorites might come out fighting in the first week but they won't be able to maintain it.

 

[TMP402]

I guess it would be a good time for

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

hard to see Schleck winning it.

200/1 for a guy who took Utah convincingly is ridiculous. Both guys are outsiders but an each way bet is definitely worth it on them odds.

Totally agree. I'm not a betting man but that screams tempting.

How is a guy who's never done a GT before gonna win against Rodriguez, Valverde, Quintana, Froome, TJVG, Aru, Landa, Nibali and Pozzovivo? Although he did beat Bookwalter and Woods convincingly in Utah

I've seen enough Vuelta's to know that only Valverde, Pozzovivo and TJVG out of the names you mentioned might challenge over three weeks in Spain. It seems that every year everyone seems to forget about fatigue and are surprised when someone who USUALLY hasn't already completed a GT wins or finishes on the podium.. And this years Tour and Giro were harder than usual.. The favorites might come out fighting in the first week but they won't be able to maintain it.

They're all way more likely to win, podium, top 5 or top 10 than Dombrowski.

 

[No_Balls]

Great news. The Double is on. If anyone can win the Tour and another GT in the same year, it's surely Froome.

I have my doubts.

Still being originally of the thought he would shy away he should have cred for accepting the challenge. A lot of myths could be shattered here.

 

[infeXio]

Re: Re:

I've seen enough Vuelta's to know that only Valverde, Pozzovivo and TJVG out of the names you mentioned might challenge over three weeks in Spain. It seems that every year everyone seems to forget about fatigue and are surprised when someone who USUALLY hasn't already completed a GT wins or finishes on the podium.. And this years Tour and Giro were harder than usual.. The favorites might come out fighting in the first week but they won't be able to maintain it.

Be that as it may - he's still not going to win.

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

I've seen enough Vuelta's to know that only Valverde, Pozzovivo and TJVG out of the names you mentioned might challenge over three weeks in Spain. It seems that every year everyone seems to forget about fatigue and are surprised when someone who USUALLY hasn't already completed a GT wins or finishes on the podium.. And this years Tour and Giro were harder than usual.. The favorites might come out fighting in the first week but they won't be able to maintain it.

Be that as it may - he's still not going to win, though.

The original point was that 200/1 is ridiculous, which it is, even Sanchez has better odds

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

I've seen enough Vuelta's to know that only Valverde, Pozzovivo and TJVG out of the names you mentioned might challenge over three weeks in Spain. It seems that every year everyone seems to forget about fatigue and are surprised when someone who USUALLY hasn't already completed a GT wins or finishes on the podium.. And this years Tour and Giro were harder than usual.. The favorites might come out fighting in the first week but they won't be able to maintain it.

Be that as it may - he's still not going to win, though.

The original point was that 200/1 is ridiculous, which it is, even Sanchez has better odds

He's 500:1 at some bookies. 200:1 is not ridiculous.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

Got some money on Schleck, would be silly not to at 350/1. Can't believe he's still on them odds. Even after Utah Dombrowski is at 200/1, bookies really have no idea about cycling

Well.. Dombrowski won't win the Vuelta...

hard to see Schleck winning it.

200/1 for a guy who took Utah convincingly is ridiculous. Both guys are outsiders but an each way bet is definitely worth it on them odds.

Those are absolutely defensible odds for a young, extremely skinny GT debutant with a history of injury problems and a very ordinary track record in ITTs (let alone 40km ones), who only has 5 top 20s in WT stages (not overall, just stages). He has only cracked 10th place in a WT stage once in his three years as a pro. It would require so many unbelievable things to happen.

Cannondale should ride a decent Vuelta TTT for a start

 

[infeXio]

Re: Re:

I've seen enough Vuelta's to know that only Valverde, Pozzovivo and TJVG out of the names you mentioned might challenge over three weeks in Spain. It seems that every year everyone seems to forget about fatigue and are surprised when someone who USUALLY hasn't already completed a GT wins or finishes on the podium.. And this years Tour and Giro were harder than usual.. The favorites might come out fighting in the first week but they won't be able to maintain it.

Be that as it may - he's still not going to win, though.

The original point was that 200/1 is ridiculous, which it is, even Sanchez has better odds

200/1 is not ridiculous at all; TMP already listed a number of reasons why he shouldn't be regarded any higher than that.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

hard to see Schleck winning it.

200/1 for a guy who took Utah convincingly is ridiculous. Both guys are outsiders but an each way bet is definitely worth it on them odds.

Totally agree. I'm not a betting man but that screams tempting.

How is a guy who's never done a GT before gonna win against Rodriguez, Valverde, Quintana, Froome, TJVG, Aru, Landa, Nibali and Pozzovivo? Although he did beat Bookwalter and Woods convincingly in Utah

I've seen enough Vuelta's to know that only Valverde, Pozzovivo and TJVG out of the names you mentioned might challenge over three weeks in Spain. It seems that every year everyone seems to forget about fatigue and are surprised when someone who USUALLY hasn't already completed a GT wins or finishes on the podium.. And this years Tour and Giro were harder than usual.. The favorites might come out fighting in the first week but they won't be able to maintain it.

Van Garderen (who never did 2 consecutive good GT's) yes, but Purito (who did it multiple times, in 2010, 2013 and 2014) no?

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

I've seen enough Vuelta's to know that only Valverde, Pozzovivo and TJVG out of the names you mentioned might challenge over three weeks in Spain. It seems that every year everyone seems to forget about fatigue and are surprised when someone who USUALLY hasn't already completed a GT wins or finishes on the podium.. And this years Tour and Giro were harder than usual.. The favorites might come out fighting in the first week but they won't be able to maintain it.

Be that as it may - he's still not going to win, though.

The original point was that 200/1 is ridiculous, which it is, even Sanchez has better odds

200/1 is not ridiculous at all; TMP already listed a number of reasons why he shouldn't be regarded any higher than that.

Henao at 33/1, Dombrowski at 200/1 .. You would say that Henao has a better past record (one top 10 in giro)... But by that reckoning Frank Schleck should be 50/1. I stand by 200/1 being very harsh and bookies having zero recognition of fatigue.

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

Van Garderen (who never did 2 consecutive good GT's) yes, but Purito (who did it multiple times, in 2010, 2013 and 2014) no?

Van Garderen didn't finish the Tour and has a point to prove before Porte arrives. Purito was aiming for GC in the tour and failed miserably, he may improve but age seems to have caught up.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Van Garderen (who never did 2 consecutive good GT's) yes, but Purito (who did it multiple times, in 2010, 2013 and 2014) no?

Van Garderen didn't finish the Tour and has a point to prove before Porte arrives. Purito was aiming for GC in the tour and failed miserably, he may improve but age seems to have caught up.

But he won two stages, and the Vuelta is a totally different race.

He will finish higher then Tejay for sure.

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

Van Garderen (who never did 2 consecutive good GT's) yes, but Purito (who did it multiple times, in 2010, 2013 and 2014) no?

Van Garderen didn't finish the Tour and has a point to prove before Porte arrives. Purito was aiming for GC in the tour and failed miserably, he may improve but age seems to have caught up.

But he won two stages, and the Vuelta is a totally different race.

He will finish higher then Tejay for sure.

I hope so, I'm a fan of Purito, can't see it happening though

 

[fungusbear]

Glad Froome is going, makes the race even better.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Van Garderen (who never did 2 consecutive good GT's) yes, but Purito (who did it multiple times, in 2010, 2013 and 2014) no?

Van Garderen didn't finish the Tour and has a point to prove before Porte arrives. Purito was aiming for GC in the tour and failed miserably, he may improve but age seems to have caught up.

But he won two stages, and the Vuelta is a totally different race.

He will finish higher then Tejay for sure.

I hope so, I'm a fan of Purito, can't see it happening though

But what's all the fuss about Tejay? The guy is just a regular GC rider who always comes up short. Nothing special imo. He was already towards a collapse before he abandoned due to sickness.

 

[Gigs_98]

Guys can you please stop to say what will happen for sure, and who will be good for sure. Purito wasnt that bad in this years tour, although he definitely wasnt on the climbing level he wanted. However last year purito was much worse in the tdf and if AC and froome hadn't crashed he probably would have been 2nd in the vuelta.
Then there are also the people saying TJ has no chance because he has never done two gt's in a row. Well that statistic couldn't be more meaningless. Maybe he really isnt good in doing a gt double but maybe he is even extremely good. We can maybe answer that question after the vuelta but not before. The first year in which AC rode two gt's was 2008 and in that year he won both.
Next up LanLions definitely knows that it is absolutely impossible that Rodriguez, Quintana, Froome, Aru, Landa and Nibali can beat Dombrowski in the vuelta. How comes? How the **** do you want to know that they can't win this race? Aru was pretty good in last years vuelta too; Nibali, Froome and Quintana are all in the top 3 gc riders of the world; Rodriguez never had big problems with the tour - vuelta double and this year he also wasnt in the situation that he had to go all out on the last alp stages; and Landa was the best climber of the giro, even better than Contador.

 

[LanLions]

Re: Re:

Van Garderen (who never did 2 consecutive good GT's) yes, but Purito (who did it multiple times, in 2010, 2013 and 2014) no?

Van Garderen didn't finish the Tour and has a point to prove before Porte arrives. Purito was aiming for GC in the tour and failed miserably, he may improve but age seems to have caught up.

But he won two stages, and the Vuelta is a totally different race.

He will finish higher then Tejay for sure.

I hope so, I'm a fan of Purito, can't see it happening though

But what's all the fuss about Tejay? The guy is just a regular GC rider who always comes up short. Nothing special imo. He was already towards a collapse before he abandoned due to sickness.

I'd agree with you usually but I just think fatigue is gonna be a far bigger factor than most on this forum are suggesting. I can't see anyone who rode the full tour being there for the full Vuelta, not sure about the Giro, usually I'd think that Aru and Landu would go well but this giro was made too difficult by Astana IMO... That's the only reason I see Van Garderen doing well, I don't think he'll win but I think he's got a good shot for the podium.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Glad Froome is going, makes the race even better.

Yeah I can't wait to see the sky train on the andorra stage
No, lets get honest. He could really make this years vuelta more interesting, and as long as they don't do a stupid sky train I wont complain

 

[SeriousSam]

The odds say the following as of now:

***** Quintana, Froome
**** Valverde
*** Aru, Nibali
** Purito, Landa
* Majka, Pozzo, TJ and other hopeless riders

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

The odds say the following as of now:

***** Quintana, Froome
**** Valverde
*** Aru, Nibali
** Purito, Landa

Hard to say how their shape will be. To be honest, for me the top 5 of the odds list are almost on the same level for me.

 

[LanLions]

Come on guys, when was the last time you saw a guy seriously challenging in two consecutive grand tours? Even Contador couldn't do it.. Froome didn't ever go full on in the Tour 2012 and was poor in the last week of Vuelta. Quintana is unknown but this Tour was rode hard so I don't expect anything. Valverde maybe, he's used to it but again, a very tough tour. That would rule most of the Tour guys out, for the win at least. I would say the Giro guys will be better but still tired. In my opinion this will be a Vuelta like 2011 were none of the podiums were the favorites pre-race. All speculation though until the second week at least.

 

[sir fly]

I was sincerely hoping that Vuelta won't be filled with such a number of GT heavyweights, so I shouldn't be glued to my TV for another 3 weeks, but it is what it is... One of the best GT seasons in decades.
ASO really is giving a hard time to RCS.

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

The odds say the following as of now:

***** Quintana, Froome
**** Valverde
*** Aru, Nibali
** Purito, Landa
* Majka, Pozzo, TJ and other hopeless riders

It's dumb to make predictions before stage 7, especially in a GT like this.