Who will win 2012 Tour de France

[Logic-is-your-friend]

No i did not read your post and it doesn't really matter whether i did nor not.

I merely saw it written somewhere that a team once had to decide whether to go with Evans or have him wait for a 2nd tier gc rider, and decided to comment that this must have been a very easy decision.

I don't really care what the rest of your post was about, it makes no difference to my comment.

I see, you weren't insinuating that was the reason of the conflict, you were just expressing some totally irrelevant and useless contemplation. Sorry if i offended you.

 

[hughmoore]

Yeah, the conflict was that JvdB was 2nd leader behind Evans with a free role within the team after his 6th place in the Giro the year before. But in the long TTT JvdB fell after a couple of km's, but the team decided not to wait for him, and defend Evans' spot among the GC contenders. JvdB finished minutes later, basically having blown his chances for a GC. But when the mountains came, Evans cracked like an old man's knuckles, and JvdB still hung onto a spot in the top 20. He tried to move up in the GC still (he was better placed than Evans at this point), went in breaks etc. Evans didn't like it, as he always believed the sun revolved around his ***, and was angry with JvdB and even more with the OPL DS who during the later stages flat out said JvdB could dethrone Evans for future GT's regarding team hirarchy. Even though his GC was down the drain, he figured JvdB should forsake all his chances and still work for him (Evans). So basically the conflict was Evans being Evans.

I havent watch that tour recently, but recall Jvdb was allowed to ride off and gain time because he was not considered a threat to anyone.


Hugh

 

[DenisMenchov]

I havent watch that tour recently, but recall Jvdb was allowed to ride off and gain time because he was not considered a threat to anyone.


Hugh

Yes, but also meant he was no longer Evans's domestique.

 

[TheEnoculator]

Prediction: Andy Schleck will struggle at this year's Tour, not because of the lack of form, but because of lack of Andersen, lack of motivation, and his discontent with Bruyneel. Even if his form somehow leapt dramatically within 3 weeks, he won't even be on podium.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

How much will the betfair odds on Andy drift over the course of today?

 

[cineteq]

Prediction: Andy Schleck will struggle at this year's Tour, not because of the lack of form, but because of lack of Andersen, lack of motivation, and his discontent with Bruyneel. Even if his form somehow leapt dramatically within 3 weeks, he won't even be on podium.

I've predicted the same in March

 

[Ferminal]

How much will the betfair odds on Andy drift over the course of today?

A big spike, probably more the crash than the performance.

 

[Ruby United]

Wiggins would be closer to 50% if this poll had been made after the tt today.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Wiggins would be closer to 50% if this poll had been made after the tt today.

This means little. I expected as much today.
Yes wiggins is in nice touch, but for guys like Evans I am not worried.

For example at the Dauphine last year, Evans rode the TT and came 1.20 behind martin. At the tour martin rode roughly a similar time and evans lost by 7 seconds (and it could be argued he slowed a little/eased of a bit near the end).

Wiggins has little evidence that he gets better as a GT goes on, and at the end of 3 weeks I would be surprised if he could gain so much times on evans. Evans will be undoubtedly better at that point anyway.

And of course, his suspected Achilles hills -multiple mountains stage - is still in debate.

 

[dlwssonic]

Its much better this way that evans does not go to the tour as the favourite.
Just like last year, no one thought evans could do it.

 

[TeoSheva]

what I don't understand is why 33 guys voted for Menchov

all the others that got some votes are good in TT or climbing, where he's better than the others?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

where's wilco in the poll

 

[Fetisoff]

where he's better than the others?

His palmares

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Hahaha, now the Brit's arn't just disregarding Menchov, they've started disregarding Evans as well, in favor of Wiggo

This discussion just keeps getting funnier

 

[Froome19]

what I don't understand is why 33 guys voted for Menchov

all the others that got some votes are good in TT or climbing, where he's better than the others?

He supposedly excels in last stage long ITTs in Gts and that one will supposedly be the deciding one

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He supposedly excels in last stage long ITTs in Gts and that one will supposedly be the deciding one

Fwiw I don't think he will win, but more likely then not he'll be one of the strongest in week 3, including the itt.

 

[DenisMenchov]

what I don't understand is why 33 guys voted for Menchov

all the others that got some votes are good in TT or climbing, where he's better than the others?

Giro, Vuelta and Tour (except Evans).

 

[Der Effe]

He supposedly excels in last stage long ITTs in Gts and that one will supposedly be the deciding one

He won the exact same amount of GT's than the entire UK & Ireland together. And all the GT wins from the UK & Ireland were Irish. A little more respect to Menchov would be welcome.

 

[Morbius]

Regarding the relevance of Menchov palmares, Giro / Vuelta success does not transfer to the tour
The last person to win the Giro in his career before winning a Tour was Pantani, and before that Roche - and they both did it in the same year. For the Vuelta it was Zuetemelk

 

[Gloin22]

He won the exact same amount of GT's than the entire UK & Ireland together. And all the GT wins from the UK & Ireland were Irish. A little more respect to Menchov would be welcome.

I really like Menchov, but have to highlight 'won'.

He won yes. But we're talking 2012. Now what he won 2/3 years ago. He didnt win much last year or this and that leads others to believe he will not be good.

He wont win. I am certain of that, but podium is achievable.

 

[TeoSheva]

who cares of the palmares? it's the past... now he's going worst and worst.. he can defend a top10, but no way to win!

 

[DenisMenchov]

Wiggins never WON a GT, never even podium le Tour, but still he is considered to be No. 1 favourite.

Menchov on the other hand won le malliot blanc as well, he was always there, every single year since 2005 he was in Top 10 of a GT.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

who cares of the palmares? it's the past... now he's going worst and worst.. he can defend a top10, but no way to win!

How can we just forget history?

 

[DenisMenchov]

who cares of the palmares? it's the past... now he's going worst and worst.. he can defend a top10, but no way to win!

2006 5
2007 WD
2008 3
2009 51
2010 2
2011 /
2012 ?

Notice how he is performing better and better every 2 years.

 

[LaFlorecita]

2006 5
2007 WD
2008 3
2009 51
2010 2
2011 /
2012 ?

Notice how he is performing better and better every 2 years.

Very nice