Who will win 2013 GIRO?

[Dekker_Tifosi]

And I don't think he can only do little improvement compared to last year. But what the youngest said he has to improve a lot over the vuelta 2012 to win.

He has to be back at very best level, like the La Punt 2010 level of climbing, combined with the 2012/2011 level of time trialling... May might just come too early for that. But we'll see.

 

[cineteq]

So he finished 11 minutes behind the guy who came 2nd in the Giro...The performances of both bolded riders mean nothing.

You can twist it anyway you like, but you know what I mean. I really question the seriousness of your answer when you said that it meant nothing.

 

[Leendert82]

Whilst a few people were confident in Hesjedal, he was quite a large outsider. I think Gesink 2013 is comparable, except coming up against Wiggins/Nibali/Hesjedal is far more difficult.



So he finished 11 minutes behind the guy who came 2nd in the Giro...

The performances of both bolded riders mean nothing.

I agree that Rodriquez was better in the Vuelta last year, however he had an optimal preperation for it and was in the form of his life, plus the Vuelta was made for the likes of Contador, Valverde and Rodriguez with the short and steep climbs.
Looking at Gesink he had a far from ideal preparation, he fell in the Tour and had to recover from that and he had to learn how to walk again earlier in the season and due to this, his legs did not had the strength it needed to perform at his best.

 

[movingtarget]

I think Gesink has to be considered especially if Wiggins can't repeat his Tour form. His TT is good in comparison to Rodriguez, Nibali and Ryder. But he has to find some consistency with his climbing. He often drops time on stages where it isn't expected. Rodriguez used to be the same but is showing much more consistency lately.

 

[theyoungest]

When you are a contender for a Podium your also a contender for the Victory imo.
Im sure you did not think that Hesjedal was a contender for victory last year as well, and yet he won.

Actually, I did think Hesjedal would contend, certainly for the podium, if not for the win. That's why I took him on my CQ team last year, as soon as I read he would be doing the Giro.

You're not the only one to underrate Hesjedal, Gesink himself does so as well. He seems to think that if Hesjedal can win the Giro, so can he. But Hesjedal has something which Gesink has never shown: amazing recovery in the third week.

Gesink had a for him poor 2011 and 2012 due to various reasons (2011 - Loss of his father in race crash and fall in the Tour, 2012 crash late 2011 and fall in the Tour)
However still within these so called poor years he still managed to get good results:
2011:
Win of Tour of Oman
2nd at Tirreno-Adriatico
3rd in Vuelta al Pais Vasco aka. Tour of the basque country
2nd at GP de Québec (behind unbeatable Gilbert)
2012:
Win at Tour California
4th Tour of Switzerland
6th Vuelta Espania

Of course, I know all of these results, and actually I think most Dutchies underrate the guy (except on this forum, strangely enough). But mostly he's been climbing very averagely and saving his race by an excellent time trial.

Look at how he climbed in Suisse 2010, or the Vuelta 2009. That's a level or two above what we've seen from him the last few years.

 

[Ferminal]

I agree that Rodriquez was better in the Vuelta last year, however he had an optimal preperation for it and was in the form of his life, plus the Vuelta was made for the likes of Contador, Valverde and Rodriguez with the short and steep climbs.
Looking at Gesink he had a far from ideal preparation, he fell in the Tour and had to recover from that and he had to learn how to walk again earlier in the season and due to this, his legs did not had the strength it needed to perform at his best.

All we can take out of Gesink's Vuelta is that he can still put a 3 week performance together. Form/fitness wise he was well off his best so it's impossible to translate his Vuelta 2012 placing into a full form GT placing. You cannot say that he has no chance in the Giro because he was well back in the Vuelta, or on the other hand, that his Vuelta performance accounting for his lack of fitness is actually that of a GT winner.

 

[Leendert82]

Actually, I did think Hesjedal would contend, certainly for the podium, if not for the win. That's why I took him on my CQ team last year, as soon as I read he would be doing the Giro.

You're not the only one to underrate Hesjedal, Gesink himself does so as well. He seems to think that if Hesjedal can win the Giro, so can he. But Hesjedal has something which Gesink has never shown: amazing recovery in the third week.


Of course, I know all of these results, and actually I think most Dutchies underrate the guy (except on this forum, strangely enough). But mostly he's been climbing very averagely and saving his race by an excellent time trial.

Look at how he climbed in Suisse 2010, or the Vuelta 2009. That's a level or two above what we've seen from him the last few years.

I agree with you on that, Gesink his focus switched from a pure climber to try and be an allrounder. (remember that he was leading the tour of Suisse but he lost everything in the last time trial - even to Frank Sleck).
His Time Trialing has improved and indeed his climbing has reduced a bit. However it is not as bad as you say, otherwise you cant be on the podium on the Tirreno and Tour the Basque plus 4th in Tour of Suisse and win at Oman and California both by winning on a mountain stage.
I think that if nothing goes wrong with Gesink in 2013 we shall see a very strong contender and even a favorite next to Nibali and Wiggins. Who shall win the Giro is up to the form at that time.

About Hesjedal, It did surprise me on his performance as I did not know he was that good. However he did not outshine anybody in the Giro last year and won by batteling his way through the mountain stages and hitting it right at the last time trial

 

[Leendert82]

All we can take out of Gesink's Vuelta is that he can still put a 3 week performance together. Form/fitness wise he was well off his best so it's impossible to translate his Vuelta 2012 placing into a full form GT placing. You cannot say that he has no chance in the Giro because he was well back in the Vuelta, or on the other hand, that his Vuelta performance accounting for his lack of fitness is actually that of a GT winner.

Only time will tell whether he will make the progress his needs to be a GT Winner. I think he has the potential and think that the Giro in 2013 is a good chance for him to go for it. Again, beating a Wiggins in form or last season will be hard. However I think that if Wiggins did not have Froome in the Tour he would not be as strong, specially not if Froome was riding for a different team.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

henao will be leader in the vuelta. but still let's hope wiggins will fail quick enough

 

[theyoungest]

I agree with you on that, Gesink his focus switched from a pure climber to try and be an allrounder. (remember that he was leading the tour of Suisse but he lost everything in the last time trial - even to Frank Sleck).
His Time Trialing has improved and indeed his climbing has reduced a bit. However it is not as bad as you say, otherwise you cant be on the podium on the Tirreno and Tour the Basque plus 4th in Tour of Suisse and win at Oman and California both by winning on a mountain stage.

The Tirreno and Basque podiums were both due to holding on in the climbs (or being dropped) and strong time trialing. Oman and California were strong climbing performances... but against what opposition? And Gesink is usually very good in a race where there's little battling for position ahead of the climbs, of course you can't get much better than Oman or California in that regard.

Put Gesink on an ergometer and he'll beat Nibali 9 times out of 10... but road racing is a different story.

About Hesjedal, It did surprise me on his performance as I did not know he was that good. However he did not outshine anybody in the Giro last year and won by batteling his way through the mountain stages and hitting it right at the last time trial

I suggest you re-watch some stages. In the final week, he was simply the best climber of the Giro.

 

[Leendert82]

The Tirreno and Basque podiums were both due to holding on in the climbs (or being dropped) and strong time trialing. Oman and California were strong climbing performances... but against what opposition? And Gesink is usually very good in a race where there's little battling for position ahead of the climbs, of course you can't get much better than Oman or California in that regard.

In Oman the opposition was not that high I must agree, but the opposition in California was not bad.
Zabriski
Danielson
Horner
Leipheimer
Van Garderen
Nibali
Roche
Velits
Duarte

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

half of those were in very bad shape. like duarte, who finished 3rd

 

[Leendert82]

henao will be leader in the vuelta. but still let's hope wiggins will fail quick enough

Why would you want a rider to fail? specially if its a team mate of Henao. Henao will learn allot from Wiggins and that will be very useful for the Vuelta and his further carreer. Henao has talent to ride for GT wins in the future.

 

[El Pistolero]

Henao the little wheelsucker of the Giro d'Italia. Big deal.

 

[Leendert82]

half of those were in very bad shape. like duarte, who finished 3rd

Duarte was in bad shape but he ended up 3rd, make no sense.
and all the Americans specially train to be top during this Tour of California so they are at their best as well.
Maybe only Nibali was not at his best (ended 30th or something) but the rest ended at the top of the standings, so you can't say that they were in bad shape.

 

[Leendert82]

Henao the little wheelsucker of the Giro d'Italia. Big deal.

If your not better then the guy that rides faster on the climbs all you can do is follow. It was not that he had any spare energy or something during the Giro. He went all out to stay in the wheel of the guys in front of him. You can't expect him to attack the whole time and then lose your place in the overal standings at the end of 3 weeks. No Haneo played it smart (same like Uran)

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Why would you want a rider to fail? specially if its a team mate of Henao. Henao will learn allot from Wiggins and that will be very useful for the Vuelta and his further carreer. Henao has talent to ride for GT wins in the future.

lol, like what? how to ride like a coward?

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Duarte was in bad shape but he ended up 3rd, make no sense.
and all the Americans specially train to be top during this Tour of California so they are at their best as well.
Maybe only Nibali was not at his best (ended 30th or something) but the rest ended at the top of the standings, so you can't say that they were in bad shape.

duarte was in bad shape, yes in good shape he would've won easily. look at last years trentino. also leipheimer was in very bad shape. horner wasn;'t great either

 

[El Pistolero]

If your not better then the guy that rides faster on the climbs all you can do is follow. It was not that he had any spare energy or something during the Giro. He went all out to stay in the wheel of the guys in front of him. You can't expect him to attack the whole time and then lose your place in the overal standings at the end of 3 weeks. No Haneo played it smart (same like Uran)

Then how did Thomas de Gendt win on the Stelvio?

Anticipation(and some luck).

But you know what they say: a good cyclist creates his own luck.

 

[theyoungest]

In Oman the opposition was not that high I must agree, but the opposition in California was not bad.
Zabriski
Danielson
Horner
Leipheimer
Van Garderen
Nibali
Roche
Velits
Duarte

Nibali, Roche, Velits were on a training ride. Zabriskie... I can't remember ever having seen him on a climb in Europe, have you? Leipheimer had just broken his leg. Horner did a crap TT and was on the attack for the entire Baldy stage.

That leaves Danielson and Van Garderen. The latter is in trouble every time the gradient rises above 7%.

It was a nice race, and good to see Gesink back to his winning ways, but in the grand scheme of things it had little meaning. A few weeks later in Suisse even Leipheimer was already climbing better than Gesink.

duarte was in bad shape, yes in good shape he would've won easily. look at last years trentino. also leipheimer was in very bad shape. horner wasn;'t great either

Whatever. Duarte is rarely in good shape. The fact is the other Colombian guy, whatshisname, should have won that stage. He could rest on Gesink's wheel and he was still outsprinted. Twice.

 

[Netserk]

The only thing I wished Henao (read Team Sky) had done differently in last year's Giro, was for Henao to follow the trio of De Gendt, Cunego and Nieve. I remember that he looked really strong on the Stelvio.

 

[El Pistolero]

I think Gesink will be back to his old level next year. If he can prevent further crashes that is.

Though if his old level is good enough to win the Giro... I have my doubts.

 

[cineteq]

The only thing I wished Henao (read Team Sky) had done differently in last year's Giro, was for Henao to follow the trio of De Gendt, Cunego and Nieve. I remember that he looked really strong on the Stelvio.

Sky has been keeping Henao on a short leash.

Why would you want a rider to fail? specially if its a team mate of Henao. Henao will learn allot from Wiggins and that will be very useful for the Vuelta and his further carreer. Henao has talent to ride for GT wins in the future.

Wiggins comes from the track world, while Henao's won 2010 Vuelta a Colombia. The Colombian knows what it takes to win a stage race. Wiggo still has a lot to learn IMO.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

The only thing I wished Henao (read Team Sky) had done differently in last year's Giro, was for Henao to follow the trio of De Gendt, Cunego and Nieve. I remember that he looked really strong on the Stelvio.

henao had to work the entire giro for both cavendish and uran. really bad choice, but now they understand

 

[El Pistolero]

Sky has been keeping Henao on a short leash.

Wiggins comes from the track world, while Henao's won 2010 Vuelta a Colombia. The Colombian knows what it takes to win a stage race. Wiggo still has a lot to learn IMO.

- Dauphiné: 2x
- Paris-Nice: 1x
- Tour de Romandie: 1x
- Tour de France: 1x

vs.

Nothing.

Yeah, Henao is the experienced one here.