Who will win 2013 GIRO?

[cineteq]

If a tell you that if you flip a coin now, it will be 'head', and by chance it really happens, will I be entitled to say I told you so?

You have about 50% chance and you're saying without any reasoning. That's not enough to say I told you so if you'll eventually be right.

You already quoted me saying why, so yes, I can say that with no regrets.
Don't understand your reseaning of 50%, it doesn't apply.

 

[Eshnar]

You already quoted me saying why, so yes, I can say that with no regrets.
Don't understand your reseaning of 50%, it doesn't apply.

You're reasoning is that you think Purito wants the Tour (not many other arguments...). Unless you're him, that's a pure conjecture, so you have 50% of chance to get it right.

 

[Afrank]

Nibs had his chance and he came up short, even with more hilly parcours, I wouldn't expect much more from him. Purito though, if his form his there he could inflict some damage on Wiggo if Sky are not Tour-strong.

Saying that makes it sound like Nibali will never perform again. I'd rate his chances as better then Purito's. Purito may be able to win bonus seconds in the uphill sprints but in the long run at this Giro I think Nibali will come out better. The 56 km time trial will be a huge disadvantage for him, he's improved a lot on his TT but I don't think he's improved enough to hold off guys like Wiggins and Nibali in a time trial that long. And even if he does hold them off there he still has a 20 km TT.

For the record though, I would love to see Purito ride away with the win. I really hope he will be one of the primary animators of the race.

What sort of resources do you think Astana are going to throw into the Giro? Are they going to prioritize a Giro win over a possible Tour top ten? Will Nibbles' main support will be Agnoli, Tiralongo and Gasparotto?

Yes, know one remembers the guy that got a top 10 at the tour. A win in the Giro will always take precedence over a tour top 10.

 

[Ferminal]

The MTT being a big roller helps Nibali, but I still think Purito will take a few seconds there. The long ITT is only around 25km of straight/flat so maybe the deficit would only be around 2'.

 

[rzombie1988]

Saying that makes it sound like Nibali will never perform again. I'd rate his chances as better then Purito's. Purito may be able to win bonus seconds in the uphill sprints but in the long run at this Giro I think Nibali will come out better. The 56 km time trial will be a huge disadvantage for him, he's improved a lot on his TT but I don't think he's improved enough to hold off guys like Wiggins and Nibali in a time trial that long. And even if he does hold them off there he still has a 20 km TT.

For the record though, I would love to see Purito ride away with the win. I really hope he will be one of the primary animators of the race.



Yes, know one remembers the guy that got a top 10 at the tour. A win in the Giro will always take precedence over a tour top 10.

Purito was owning everyone on climbs whether they are mountains or hills in the Giro. He even made Contador look lucky.

 

[gustienordic]

The course is good for Wiggins... but... If J-rod or Nibali can break him on a steep climb he could be out the door quickly... J-rod could be instrumental in breaking Wiggins, but won't win because of the TT.

 

[cineteq]

You're reasoning is that you think Purito wants the Tour (not many other arguments...). Unless you're him, that's a pure conjecture, so you have 50% of chance to get it right.

I told you so!

Rodríguez delays decision on riding 2013 Tour de France
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/rod...&ns_source=cyclingnews&ns_linkname=0&ns_fee=0

 

[Eshnar]

I told you so!

Rodríguez delays decision on riding 2013 Tour de France
http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/rod...&ns_source=cyclingnews&ns_linkname=0&ns_fee=0

That doesn't mean anything u.u
The Vuelta will get 12 uphill finishes and Purito will target that.

 

[cineteq]

That doesn't mean anything u.u
The Vuelta will get 12 uphill finishes and Purito will target that.

Regardless of what he might decide, I just wanted to tease you.

 

[Lexman]

Wiggins is thinking he will repeat his TDF 2012 trick with the ITT, but Nibali will teach him a lesson, besides the mountains are normally steeper than the TDF so not really in the advantage of Wiggo who will do the podium of course.

 

[MellowJohnny]

Wiggins, the course has been designed to attract him, I'd imagine Nibali will push him up and down the mountains but Astana will not be strong enough,

Rigoberto Uran to finish very well also

 

[Gloin22]

Wiggins, the course has been designed to attract him, I'd imagine Nibali will push him up and down the mountains but Astana will not be strong enough,

Rigoberto Uran to finish very well also

Uran for Tour, Henao for Giro

 

[the asian]

Nibali to win. Hopefully Wiggins will not even make the podium.
Still not sure whether Purito will ride the Giro or not.

I'd love to see Quintana on the podium but not sure whether he'll start.

Basso will be too old and the Canondale team is weak in GC riders. He won't have his usual Mt domestiques. No podium for him but he might target a stage win.

 

[airstream]

There's 0 reason to consider Schleck a candidate for next Tour, but people vote him

in realistic proportion.

 

[airstream]

I dunno, Nibali seemed stronger to me in the two hardest stages of the Tour. Keep in mind also that Nibali didn't have Froome to pace him. That counts for something on climbs that are exposed and not overly steep.

It's true, though, that Nibali was weak in the Peyragudes stage. He doesn't recover as well as Wiggins it seems, which is, of course, a major weakness.

Regardless, Purito will own them both.

In my view, such a point is based on 2 myths:
1. Giro is always only steep climbs which is not the case for the next year's edition;
2. Nibali is a great climber as for steep climbs while Wiggins is not.
Froome rather played a controle role on the Peyresourde. Do you really think Wiggins wouldn't have caught Nibali in case there hadn't been Froome?

Purito? How? The man has no experiece to build the raced based on his own attacking capacitites. In addition, his team will me much weaker than Sky. Objectively Purito needs a few solo raid in order to win. A climber who's able to hang other's wheel and a climber who conducts the race himself and attacks are like 2 different genres. I don't see how Rodriguez can win, if Nibali and Wiggins demonstrate their customary level.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Wiggins, the course has been designed to attract him, I'd imagine Nibali will push him up and down the mountains but Astana will not be strong enough,

Rigoberto Uran to finish very well also

Nibali will have a very strong lineup with him so that will not be the problem

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

we don't even know if nibali is going to the giro or tour

 

[maxmartin]

we don't even know if nibali is going to the giro or tour

Giro for sure

Tour maybe yes, maybe no, probably not

If no Tour, he will use Vuelta prepare for the worlds

 

[Afrank]

we don't even know if nibali is going to the giro or tour

Yes we do, he will be at the Giro.
http://velonews.competitor.com/2012/10/news/nibali-aims-for-2013-giro-win-will-skip-the-tour_262043

I'd be very surprised to see Nibali at the tour, he will go to the vuelta to prepare for worlds.

 

[The Hitch]

I hope he uses the Vuelta to prepare for worlds, the Cadel Evans and Alejandro Valverde way.

 

[Parrulo]

I hope he uses the Vuelta to prepare for worlds, the Cadel Evans and Alejandro Valverde way.

oh he will, he no longer has cannondale ruining his prep for pretty much every race by forcing him to ride unnecessary races in the states anymore.

as soon as cannondale realized they couldn't cover the astana offer they just milked nibali until there wasn't anything left. they partly ruined his tour perp by forcing him to ride california when he was supposed and had planned ,like every other rider who rode a full schedule till the ardennes, to rest all may long which is why he got to the dauphine so bad. And then instead of the vuelta they forced him to race the USPCC which is far from the ideal preparation for the worlds.

 

[The Hitch]

in realistic proportion.

I had to walk right into my screen to see, but is that sastre in your avatar?

 

[The Hitch]

oh he will, he no longer has cannondale ruining his prep for pretty much every race by forcing him to ride unnecessary races in the states anymore.

as soon as cannondale realized they couldn't cover the astana offer they just milked nibali until there wasn't anything left. they partly ruined his tour perp by forcing him to ride california when he was supposed and had planned ,like every other rider who rode a full schedule till the ardennes, to rest all may long which is why he got to the dauphine so bad. And then instead of the vuelta they forced him to race the USPCC which is far from the ideal preparation for the worlds.

I clearly meant that i hope he rides the vuelta for the win, rather than that he just goes for stages.

 

[Parrulo]

I clearly meant that i hope he rides the vuelta for the win, rather than that he just goes for stages.

oh i see, well if he does the giro they he will definitively try to win it, if he does the tour instead (which seems unlikely from latest interviews) he will probably just hunt stages not to overshot his preparation. that was what he had planned with bettini for this year.

 

[Afrank]

oh i see, well if he does the giro they he will definitively try to win it, if he does the tour instead (which seems unlikely from latest interviews) he will probably just hunt stages not to overshot his preparation. that was what he had planned with bettini for this year.

If he does the Giro? Why is this still a question?