Who will win the 2013 GIRO? (Second round)

[Hugo Koblet]

I voted Nibali but I actually think Rodriguez will.

 

[the asian]

Nibali to win. Samu and Pozzovivo to round up the podium.

Gesnik to crash again, and Wiggins to retire after losing ten minutes on a mountain stage and complain bitterly that Sky's Marginal Gains have been leaked to the other teams.

 

[movingtarget]

Wiggins will win followed by Ryder and Rodriguez.

 

[theyoungest]

Different team, different parcours, different climbs, different competition, different level of motivation. Just because Wiggo beat Nibali on a course custom made for him doesn't necessarily mean he can do it again in a completely different race.

Wiggo as a climber is on par with Nibali, at the very least. And there's a 50 k flattish TT in the race. If he approaches the form of the Tour next year, I don't see how Nibali can beat him.

 

[airstream]

Just because Wiggo beat Nibali on a course custom made for him doesn't necessarily mean he can do it again in a completely different race.

He smashed Nibali and he would have smashed Nibali even more unsparingly if it had been needed. It was an unconditional victory on all counts. Everything Nibali could do on the climbs was miserable school boy La Toussuire move when he could hang at the distance of 15-20 sec during 4-5 km's. What are we talking about?

 

[Pentacycle]

He smashed Nibali and he would have smashed Nibali even more unsparingly if it had been needed. It was an unconditional victory on all counts. Everything Nibali could do on the climbs was miserable school boy La Toussuire move when he could hang at the distance of 15-20 sec during 4-5 km's. What are we talking about?

Very much true. His best performance was the 2010 Giro, still without the pressure of leadership. In the 2011 Giro he attacked on a descent, but immediately dropped on the next climb. He did the same in TdF, on the stage to Peyragudes, but he finished the stage together with Van Garderen. Terrific rider indeed. His podium spot symbolized the poor field of the Tour.

 

[Eshnar]

Very much true. His best performance was the 2010 Giro, still without the pressure of leadership. In the 2011 Giro he attacked on a descent, but immediately dropped on the next climb. He did the same in TdF, on the stage to Peyragudes, but he finished the stage together with Van Garderen. Terrific rider indeed. His podium spot symbolized the poor field of the Tour.

wait, Nibali attacked on the descent in that stage? I must have missed that

 

[airstream]

Very much true. His best performance was the 2010 Giro, still without the pressure of leadership. In the 2011 Giro he attacked on a descent, but immediately dropped on the next climb. He did the same in TdF, on the stage to Peyragudes, but he finished the stage together with Van Garderen. Terrific rider indeed. His podium spot symbolized the poor field of the Tour.

Well, he deserved this actually. To me, Nibali is the first (neither Rodriguez nor Valverde) man in a sesquialteral echelon of GT riders after Schleck, Froome, Wiggins and Contador. But he needs to make a big step to beat Wiggins at such a type of parcours. 50 k TT. What is a plausible margin? 2'30 - 3 min. In this year's Tour Wiggins rode both TT's miraculously sure, but Nibali did them better than I personally expected too.

 

[jens_attacks]

wait, Nibali attacked on the descent in that stage? I must have missed that

yes he followed the breakaway early on the mente descent but alejandro told him to stop.

 

[cineteq]

Very much true. His best performance was the 2010 Giro, still without the pressure of leadership. In the 2011 Giro he attacked on a descent, but immediately dropped on the next climb. He did the same in TdF, on the stage to Peyragudes, but he finished the stage together with Van Garderen. Terrific rider indeed. His podium spot symbolized the poor field of the Tour.

You're trying to confuse some readers here. The only serious attack was on stage 10 on the descent of Grand Colombier. In the stage (17) that Valverde won, he was already injured. It was just a bluff attack in an effort to mask his injury, but Valverde convinced him to drop back to the peloton so that the breakaway would have a chance.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Thanks. I guess Henao/Uran combo is option 9

Poor guys, for some posters and Sky, they're always the mules, the donkeys, the columbians...but never mentioned by their names. No much respect for them.

PS: Not talking about you or the OP.

henao and uran are probably also not going.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

He smashed Nibali and he would have smashed Nibali even more unsparingly if it had been needed. It was an unconditional victory on all counts. Everything Nibali could do on the climbs was miserable school boy La Toussuire move when he could hang at the distance of 15-20 sec during 4-5 km's. What are we talking about?

We're talking about a climb that suited Wiggins perfectly... and yet he still got dropped by his teammate.

 

[Eshnar]

yes he followed the breakaway early on the mente descent but alejandro told him to stop.

oh, right. Wasn't exactly the same as he did in the Giro though.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

wait, Nibali attacked on the descent in that stage? I must have missed that

We forgive you. Most of us nodded off multiple times during most stages.

 

[Eshnar]

We forgive you. Most of us nodded off multiple times during most stages.

That wasn't a proper attack so I just deleted it from my memory

 

[airstream]

We're talking about a climb that suited Wiggins perfectly... and yet he still got dropped by his teammate.

What didn't let Nibali attack on more suited climbs? It is not very serious. When one is dropped he is dropped forever and no one can salvage him properly. Wiggins simply felt bad for 30 seconds or something.

 

[Eshnar]

What didn't let Nibali attack on more suited climbs?

The absence of them. Or their bad positions.

 

[airstream]

The absence of them. Or their bad positions.

Planches des Belles Filles. Attack! I don't wanna...

My opinion is there is no principal difference between a 6% av. climb and an 8-8.5% one. If one is good, one is good at any climbs and it works almost always. A really powerful team can arrange an up-and-downer even on a climb like.. Sierra Nevada... I don't know. It is exceptionally a matter of purpose. But even if it is the case. Since when has Nibali became an outstanding master of steep ramps?

 

[Eshnar]

Planches des Belles Filles. Attack! I don't wanna...

My opinion is there is no principal difference between a 6% av. climb and an 8-8.5% one. If one is good, one is good at any climbs and it works almost always. A really powerful team can arrange an up-and-downer even on a climb like.. Sierra Nevada... I don't know. It is exceptionally a matter of purpose. But even if it is the case. Since when has Nibali became an outstanding master of steep ramps?

He's not an outstanding master, but he should be better than Wiggins. Again we have no proof since the Tour had none of them But Nibbles did very well on the Zonc in 2011 and last year he was easily with the very best on the Muro di Sormano. So I'd say he goes pretty well on steep climbs.

 

[jens_attacks]

wiggo is too obvious

my pick is one of
pellizotti
rujano
danilo di luca
ivan basso

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

My nationality forced me to vote for Gesink

I'm really hoping for an epic Gesink vs. Nibali battle here.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

gesink will crash or suck or quite possibly both

 

[airstream]

He's not an outstanding master, but he should be better than Wiggins. Again we have no proof since the Tour had none of them But Nibbles did very well on the Zonc in 2011 and last year he was easily with the very best on the Muro di Sormano. So I'd say he goes pretty well on steep climbs.

What does the Giro include but Trecime? Some 2-3k 9-10% pieces in the second week. That's it. Wiggins is not an idiot. He will not try to contest against Nibali or Rodriguez in explosiveness. He will lose 10-15 seconds in cold blood..

 

[Eshnar]

What does the Giro include but Trecime? Some 2-3k 9-10% pieces in the second week. That's it. Wiggins is not an idiot. He will not try to contest against Nibali or Rodriguez in explosiveness. He will lose 10-15 seconds in cold blood..

Let's say I expect him to lose a bit more but you're right, the Wiggins of last Tour would never lose as much as he gained in the ITT. But we have to see if he will be the same of the Tour, I already said that in the beginning and in the former thread too.
In the next Giro Le Tre Cime is the only one overly steep climb, but there are at least 4-5 climbs that are harder than anything Wiggins saw at the last Tour (except maybe Croix De Fer) plus a dozen of small and explosive climbs in the medium mountain stages, which could be very dangerous if his opponents try to exploit them (not sure if they will ofc). Also you could consider that in the next Giro Wiggins will likely remain without teammates at a certain point, something that last year never happened.

 

[Froome19]

Let's say I expect him to lose a bit more but you're right, the Wiggins of last Tour would never lose as much as he gained in the ITT. But we have to see if he will be the same of the Tour, I already said that in the beginning and in the former thread too.
In the next Giro Le Tre Cime is the only one overly steep climb, but there are at least 4-5 climbs that are harder than anything Wiggins saw at the last Tour (except maybe Croix De Fer) plus a dozen of small and explosive climbs in the medium mountain stages, which could be very dangerous if his opponents try to exploit them (not sure if they will ofc). Also you could consider that in the next Giro Wiggins will likely remain without teammates at a certain point, something that last year never happened.

Good post.

Though I believe that if Wiggins shows his form from the Tour then he may be too much for Nibali on the steeper finishes. The best indication of that was PDBF on Stage 7 where Wiggins seemed more in control than Nibali..